Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
309 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...Isolated Severe Storms Today and Friday, mainly across
Southeast Georgia...

.NEAR TERM /Tonight-Friday/...

Rest of this Afternoon/Evening...Broken squall line with strong
storms and isolated severe storms expected to cross through inland
SE GA with the best threat of Severe Storms mainly North and West
of Waycross. The line is expected to weaken early this evening but
may still see some strong storms closer to the I-95 and US-301
corridors as remaining storms/outflows collide with Atlc Coast Sea
Breeze front pushing inland. These storms will continue until late
evening then fade around midnight as they push into the Atlc
Ocean. Main threat this evening is damaging winds across inland SE
GA but strong gusty winds are possible in any storm activity.
Isolated Large Hail or a tornado cannot be ruled out in bowing
segments...mainly across SE GA or in sea breeze/storm
interactions. Locally heavy rainfall possible across SE GA as
training of cells possible but antecedent conditions relatively
drier so not expecting significant flooding threat.

Overnight...Diurnal activity basically ends by midnight with fair
skies/convective debris clouds and partly cloudy skies although
the strong SW steering flow could produce some storm activity
across the Big Bend region of the NE Gomex that could trickle into
the I-75 corridor of inland North Florida towards morning but
should be weakening and isolated the further it tracks inland.
Muggy overnight lows in the mid/upper 70s expected.

Friday...Band of deeper moisture in the SW steering flow steps
just a bit further Eastward and is located from the Big Bend
region across North Florida and SE GA. This will set up slightly
better chances of rainfall area-wide with Pops generally 50-70%
and with moisture source much closer, expect an earlier start to
convection during the late morning hours as it won't take as much
heating to kick off convection with PWATS much closer to 2 inches.
The earlier start to convection will hold max temps closer to 90
degrees with heat indices in the 100-105 range. The strong belt of
SW winds aloft will still support scattered strong and isolated
severe storms with main threat of strong/damaging winds in a few
storms. Also the higher PWATs will support a better chance of
locally heavy rainfall, especially if some of the SW-NE oriented
bands don't have enough Eastward translation during peak heating
tomorrow and will need to watch for minor/localized flooding from
isolated areas that pick up a quick 2-3 inches of rainfall.

.SHORT TERM...Friday night through Sunday night...Trailing moisture
axis associated with remnants of Harvey will still be across se
Ga/ne Fl on Saturday. Daytime heating and a moderate sw flow with
adequate shear will likely mean another round of strong to severe
storms Saturday aftn/eve. Troughing aloft will lift to the ne on
Sunday which will mean lighter winds and less shear for our area.
Storms will be more scattered with best coverage over inland areas
near the seabreeze collision. Temperatures will be near average with
above average pops Saturday and near average Sunday.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Thursday...A lighter sw flow will be
across the area Monday and Tuesday with a mid-upper level ridge
building across s Fl. Moisture will still be abundant so expect
scattered diurnal seabreeze storms with best coverage over inland
areas. Upper trough amplifies over the eastern U.S. Wednesday into
Thursday which will push a cold front into the area on Thursday.
GFS/GEFS continues to be more aggresive moving this system eastward
than the ECMWF. Storms should become numerous Wednesday into
Thursday for parts of the area with either solution. Temperatures
will be be close to average through the period. Pops will be near
average Monday and Tuesday...and at or above average Wednesday and
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Still expecting a few scattered showers/storms to impact the TAF
sites in the 21z-01z time frame and have upped to VCTS at all TAF
sites and may need to add TEMPO groups if the broken squall line
reaches all the way to the I-95 corridor/TAF sites. Some gusty
winds to 30-40 knots and MVFR CIGS/VSBYS are possible if the line
holds together.

&&

.MARINE...
South to Southwest flow will continue at 10-15 knots with seas 2-5
ft and no headlines into the weekend. Main impacts will be
offshore moving storms Today-Friday with gusty winds possible.
Weak frontal boundary/wind shift will be possible late in the
weekend and early next week with winds becoming more light and
variable at 10 knots or less and seas 1-3 ft or less from Sunday
through Tuesday.

Rip Currents: Moderate Risk continues in the lingering onshore
swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  74  90  73  88 /  20  40  20  60
SSI  78  89  77  85 /  40  60  40  60
JAX  76  92  75  88 /  40  50  30  50
SGJ  77  91  76  87 /  40  70  30  50
GNV  75  91  74  87 /  30  50  30  50
OCF  75  91  74  88 /  30  70  30  50

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...None.
&&

Hess/Zibura/McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
145 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-010745-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
145 PM EDT Thu Aug 31 2017

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA TODAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Heat indices 102 to 107 degrees across northeast Florida.

Moderate risk of rip currents.

Chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms, especially across
southeast Georgia and eastern half of northeast Florida. A slight
risk of severe storms is possible across Southeast Georgia with
damaging winds the main threat although locally heavy rainfall, hail
and an isolated tornado is possible. Strong storms will be possible
across Northeast Florida and capable of producing gusty winds,
frequent lightning and locally heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

Scattered to numerous mainly afternoon thunderstorms each day
capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

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