Severe Thunderstorm Warning 142, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
344 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TODAY...

.NEAR TERM /Through Tonight/...

A line of showers and storms were redeveloping across Levy County
to southern Duval/northern St Johns County early this morning.
Expect an area 50 miles north/south of a line from just south of
Gainesville to Jacksonville Beach to be the focus for heavy
rainfall this morning into the afternoon. Storms are fast moving,
but training of cells and high rainfall rates could lead to
localized flooding, especially in the area mentioned above.
Thought about a Flood Watch, but this rainfall is much needed,
with streams, creeks, rivers and lakes well below normal. HRRR
shows helicity increasing along the Gulf coast around daybreak as
winds back to the south, and could see isolated tornadoes,
especially in the western areas towards Marion, Alachua, and
Gilchrist counties. Widespread rainfall amounts of 2-3 inches can
be expected across much of northeast Florida through tonight, and
around 1 inch across much of southeast Georgia. Locally higher
amounts are possible, especially where training bands set up.

It is a very complex scenario for severe weather today as showers
and storms will be ongoing across northeast Florida this morning,
leading to lower instability there. Southwesterly flow will
strengthen ahead of the upper trough, with low level jet of 40-50
knots across the region this afternoon. Breezy to windy conditions
are expected, even outside of storms, with winds easily mixing
down to the surface in storms. So, the main threat looks to be
damaging winds in excess of 60 mph with multiple rounds of
convection across the region through the day and into the evening.
Temperatures aloft will cool as the trough approaches late this
afternoon, and some drier air aloft may also move into the region,
which could lead to large hail ahead of the front. This matches
well with the Slight Risk that our entire region is under for
today. Temperatures are tricky today, as areas that see some
clearing could quickly warm up, but kept temperatures down in the
upper 70s to lower 80s due to expected cloud cover and storms.

Showers and storms will begin to push east of the region this
evening, with drying first across southeast Georgia, and then
storms winding down across the southeast portion of the region
around midnight tonight. Much drier air will move into the region
overnight, with dewpoints falling into the upper 50s across inland
southeast Georgia and the lower 60s across the rest of the region
by the morning. Overnight lows will be cooler in the lower 60s
across the interior and the mid 60s for the coastal areas and
north central Florida.

.SHORT TERM.../Thursday through Friday/...
The upper trough axis swings into the area during the morning and
shifts east of the region by Thursday afternoon, with the surface
cold front well ahead pushing east-southeast through the southern
tier zones by daybreak Thursday. The heavy rainfall threat will
also end across North Central Florida early Thursday morning
behind the front. Thursday will be a dry day with a 15 to 20 mph
westerly flow. Drier air will filter into the region through the
day as the cold front pushes southward, with much more pleasant
dewpoints in the 50s areawide by afternoon. Thursday night and
Friday high pressure will build in over the region with clear and
dry conditions. Friday morning lows will be cooler in the
mid/upper 50s well inland and the low to mid 60s along the coast,
intercoastal and St. Johns River Basin which is around 5 degrees
below normal. Highs Friday are forecast to also be cooler, but
nearly or slightly above normal, in the mid to upper 80s.

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Wednesday/...
Temperatures will moderate this weekend as an upper level ridge
over the Gulf of Mexico builds into the region. Highs will climb
into the lower to mid 90s inland with upper 80s to near 90 at the
coast. Lows Friday night will be in the mid 60s inland to lower
70s coast, warming Saturday night into the upper 60s inland to mid
70s coast with a light southwesterly wind. High pressure will
move offshore through early next week with a return flow and
warming temperatures. High pressure ridge offshore of Florida and
a strong upper trough digging across the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest occurs Memorial Day creating an increasingly zonal flow
across the area, especially GA. Late during Memorial Day, rain
chances begin to increase, mainly north of I-10 where POPs will be
25 percent near I-10 to 35 percent near the Altamaha by
afternoon, with slight chances south of I-10. Tuesday and
Wednesday next week should see a return to afternoon and evening
thunderstorms along the western edge of the ridge. The next
frontal system begins to make its approach on Tuesday with
enhanced chances of precipitation Tuesday night and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...
Convection was redeveloping in an area from near KGNV through the
Duval TAF sites. Expect this to be the corridor of heavy showers
and thunderstorms with gusty winds and restrictions through much
of the day.

&&

.MARINE...
Waves of showers and storms will push through the waters through
tonight ahead of a cold front. West southwesterly flow will
continue to increase today ahead of a strong trough of low
pressure. Nearshore, winds will increase to 20-25 knots. Beyond
20nm offshore, winds will increase to 20-25 knots this morning,
then 25-30 knots this evening with a few gusts to Gale force. A
cold front will push through the waters before daybreak on
Thursday, and then weak high pressure will build across central
Florida through the end of the week with diminishing winds. High
pressure will build to the southeast over the weekend into early
next week.

Rip Currents: Low risk of rip currents through Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Wet pattern in store through tonight. Will have to scrutinize
localized precip pattern through tonight. Thursday is looking like
the next relatively dry afternoon with low RH values and gusty
winds. So will have to watch to see what the precipitation pattern
looks like to determine the threat level post frontal on
Thursday. On Friday, winds come down while min RH values remain in
the 30 to 35 percent range.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  80  62  79  58 /  80  50   0   0
SSI  80  68  81  65 /  80  50  10   0
JAX  80  64  83  62 / 100  60  10   0
SGJ  81  65  83  64 / 100  70  10   0
GNV  79  64  82  59 / 100  70  10   0
OCF  81  67  82  60 / 100  80  20   0

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
GA...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Thursday for Coastal waters
     from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-
     Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL
     out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler
     Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to
     Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from Fernandina
     Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-Waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Cordero/Kennedy/Peterson

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
706 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-251115-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
706 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT FOR NORTHEAST FLORIDA UNTIL 3 PM...

...WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING...

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible through this evening,
with isolated tornadoes, damaging wind gusts in excess of 60 mph,
frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes, and large hail
possible within any severe storms that develop. A Tornado Watch is
in effect until 3 PM this afternoon.

Rounds of heavy showers and storms will move across the region
today. Widespread 2 to 3 inches of rain is expected across
northeast Florida with locally higher amounts in training bands.
Around 1 inch of rain is expected across southeast Georgia, with
locally higher amounts. Localized flooding is possible where
thunderstorms move over the same region, with urban and low lying
areas being more prone to localized flooding.

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the coastal waters. A few
gusts to gale force are possible tonight over the offshore waters.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through Thursday afternoon.

There is a chance of thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
614 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

FLZ037-040-241100-
Putnam FL-Marion FL-
614 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PUTNAM AND
NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 700 AM EDT...

At 614 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Anthony, or 7 miles south of Citra, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Fort McCoy, Salt Springs, Citra, Lake Delancy, Sparr, Anthony,
Fruitland, Welaka, Reddick and Hog Valley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 2935 8224 2961 8172 2935 8161 2919 8219
TIME...MOT...LOC 1014Z 243DEG 34KT 2931 8209

PETERSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
704 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

FLZ037-038-241145-
Putnam FL-Flagler FL-
704 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FLAGLER AND
SOUTHEASTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 745 AM EDT...

At 704 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lake Delancy, or near Salt Springs, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Bunnell, Crescent City, Pomona Park, Andalusia, Fruitland, Satsuma,
Welaka, Espanola, Lake Como and Georgetown.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for northern and
northeastern Florida.

LAT...LON 2937 8172 2937 8174 2943 8174 2943 8178
      2949 8178 2949 8184 2951 8184 2962 8152
      2963 8132 2965 8132 2964 8131 2965 8129
      2948 8123
TIME...MOT...LOC 1104Z 249DEG 30KT 2944 8177

PETERSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
809 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

FLZ033-038-241300-
St. Johns FL-Flagler FL-
809 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FLAGLER AND
SOUTHEASTERN ST. JOHNS COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM EDT...

At 809 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hastings, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Augustine Beach, Marineland, Saint Augustine Shores, Butler
Beach, Crescent Beach and Dupont Center.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for northeastern
Florida.

LAT...LON 2955 8147 2961 8152 2963 8152 2989 8122
      2967 8115
TIME...MOT...LOC 1209Z 234DEG 21KT 2962 8146

PETERSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
836 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

FLZ036-037-241315-
Putnam FL-Alachua FL-
836 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL ALACHUA AND
NORTHWESTERN PUTNAM COUNTIES UNTIL 915 AM EDT...

At 836 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hawthorne, or 9 miles south of Melrose, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph can be expected along with possible minor
wind damage.

Locations impacted include...
Palatka, Interlachen, Hawthorne, George's Lake, Florahome, Melrose
Landing, Bardin, Hollister, Johnson and Putnam Hall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 300 PM EDT for northern and
northeastern Florida.

LAT...LON 2947 8210 2958 8217 2975 8197 2975 8194
      2976 8193 2978 8193 2980 8191 2980 8186
      2984 8181 2964 8166
TIME...MOT...LOC 1236Z 234DEG 20KT 2957 8206

PETERSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
843 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 AM     TSTM WND GST     ST. AUGUSTINE           29.89N 81.31W
05/24/2017  E40 MPH          ST. JOHNS          FL   BROADCAST MEDIA

            TREE LIMB FELL DOWN OVER POWER LINES AND A VEHICLE. WIND
            SPEED ESTIMATED WITH RADAR.

&&

WCORLESS

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
858 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

FLZ033-241345-
St. Johns FL-
858 AM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN ST. JOHNS COUNTY UNTIL
945 AM EDT...

At 857 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Federal Point, or near Hastings, moving northeast at 50 mph. Radar
indicated weak rotation with this storm. Tornadoes can occur with
little or no advanced warning.

Locations impacted include...
Saint Augustine, Hastings, Saint Augustine Beach, Crescent Beach,
Saint Augustine Shores, Butler Beach, Saint Augustine South, Vilano
Beach, Spuds and Anastasia.

LAT...LON 2971 8123 2969 8153 2976 8153 2976 8154
      2983 8154 3001 8133
TIME...MOT...LOC 1257Z 240DEG 49KT 2978 8151

WOLF