Areal Flood Warning 49, NWS Jacksonville, FL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
241 PM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...This afternoon-Monday night...Irma rainbands are
beginning to enter the area and with them, the tornado threat will
continue to increase from south to north through tonight. Expect
conditions across northeastern Florida and southeastern Georgia to
deteriorate further tonight as Irma moves north over the western
part of the Florida peninsula with winds increasing and heavy
rainfall across the entire area. See the Hurricane Local Statement
for more details about the Irma forecast and impacts.

Conditions won't begin to improve behind Irma until at least
Monday afternoon. Rainfall will quickly drop off Monday night as
dry air moves in on the back side of the storm. However, flooding
impacts are likely to continue even after the rain ends. Only
minor forecast updates this afternoon in the short term with all
eyes on Irma.

.LONG TERM...Tuesday-Sunday...Irma is expected to be to the
northwest Tuesday, with weak high pressure building over the
forecast area. Expecting a primarily dry day for Tuesday with
subsidence under the ridge. A moist south to southwesterly flow
is expected for Wednesday with showers and storms developing with
diurnal heating. This pattern will continue into Thursday. A great
deal of uncertainty in the forecast late in the week into the
weekend. The extended range models are looping Hurricane Jose
around this week, such that it is located to the East of the
region over the upcoming weekend. The location of this system
would have a significant impact on the overall pattern over the
region, even if it stays well East. At this time the forecast will
reflect the potential of this system to be to the East. The
forecast for next weekend will then be refined this week as the
track of Jose can better be determined.

&&

.AVIATION...Conditions will continue to deteriorate this evening.
Rain bands will continue producing restrictions, with wind speeds
increasing. Winds will remain strong throughout this 18z TAF
period due to hurricane Irma.

&&

.MARINE...Conditions will continue to deteriorate through
Monday as Hurricane Irma is forecast to track over the western
Florida peninsula. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the NE FL
waters and a Hurricane Watch and Tropical Storm Warning are in
effect for the SE GA waters.

Effects from Irma will begin to subside late Monday, but seas
aren't likely to drop below 7 ft until late Tuesday in the
nearshore waters and Wednesday across the offshore waters. Behind
Irma, winds will turn to out of the south Monday night and slowly
decrease through Tuesday. Winds and seas look relatively benign
Wednesday and Thursday, but focus will then shift to the track of
Hurricane Jose, which could impact the waters, even from afar,
later this week and next weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
AMG  66  77  63  84 / 100 100  40  10
SSI  75  82  71  86 / 100 100  30  10
JAX  75  81  69  88 / 100 100  20  10
SGJ  76  84  72  88 / 100 100  20  10
GNV  72  79  69  87 / 100 100  20  10
OCF  74  80  70  88 / 100 100  20  10

&&

.JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Alachua-Baker-
     Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-Coastal Nassau-Columbia-Flagler-
     Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland Duval-Inland Nassau-Marion-Putnam-
     St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

     Hurricane Warning for Alachua-Baker-Bradford-Clay-Coastal Duval-
     Coastal Nassau-Columbia-Flagler-Gilchrist-Hamilton-Inland
     Duval-Inland Nassau-Marion-Putnam-St. Johns-Suwannee-Union.

GA...Flash Flood Watch through Monday evening for Appling-Atkinson-
     Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-Clinch-Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-
     Coffee-Echols-Inland Camden-Inland Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-
     Ware-Wayne.

     Tropical Storm Warning for Appling-Bacon-Brantley-Charlton-
     Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Coffee-Inland Camden-Inland
     Glynn-Jeff Davis-Pierce-Ware-Wayne.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal Camden-Coastal Glynn-Inland Camden-
     Inland Glynn.

     Hurricane Warning for Atkinson-Clinch-Echols.

AM...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to
     Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA
     to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Watch for Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to
     Fernandina Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from Altamaha Sound GA
     to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM.

     Hurricane Warning for Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to
     St. Augustine FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from St.
     Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-Waters from
     Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60
     NM.

&&

Struble//McGinnis

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
609 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

AMZ450-452-454-470-472-474-FLZ020>025-030>033-035>038-040-124-125-
GAZ132>136-149>154-162>166-101800-
Coastal waters from Altamaha Sound to Fernandina Beach FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL out
20 NM-
Coastal waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL out 20 NM-
Waters from Altamaha Sound GA to Fernandina Beach FL from 20 to
60 NM-
Waters from Fernandina Beach to St. Augustine FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from St. Augustine to Flagler Beach FL from 20 to 60 NM-
Hamilton-Suwannee-Columbia-Baker-Inland Nassau-Inland Duval-Union-
Bradford-Clay-St. Johns-Gilchrist-Alachua-Putnam-Flagler-Marion-
Coastal Nassau-Coastal Duval-Coffee-Jeff Davis-Bacon-Appling-
Wayne-Atkinson-Ware-Pierce-Brantley-Inland Glynn-Coastal Glynn-
Echols-Clinch-Charlton-Inland Camden-Coastal Camden-
609 AM EDT Sun Sep 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Florida,
Southeast Georgia and the Adjacent Coastal Waters.

Please refer to the Hurricane Local Statement for information
regarding the approach of major Hurricane Irma.

For additional information, visit the National Weather Service in
Jacksonville website on the internet at weather.gov/jax.

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