Severe Thunderstorm Warning 69, NWS Jackson, MS

246 
WWUS54 KJAN 072002 RRA
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
202 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

MSC101-123-072012-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0069.000000T0000Z-170207T2030Z/
Newton MS-Scott MS-
202 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN NEWTON AND
SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 500 PM CST for central and
east central Mississippi.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
Jackson.

LAT...LON 3228 8965 3242 8966 3253 8920 3224 8919
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 266DEG 22KT 3238 8936 

$$

NF

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1156 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED TODAY...

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Broken/overcast MVFR to low end VFR ceilings exist across the area
this afternoon. Scattered to numerous SHRA/TSRA will continue roughly
along and east of the Natchez Trace through mid afternoon, moving out
of the area by sunset. Brief lower visbys/ceilings will be possible
with individual storms, and some storms may produce large hail and 50
kt wind gusts. Behind the storms, VFR conditions are expected
through the early evening, but then low clouds and some fog are
expected to redevelop overnight across the south half of the area
with IFR/LIFR conditions possible, spreading northward toward
daybreak. Visibilities/ceilings will improve beginning by mid morning
and continuing into the middle of the day. /DL/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Tornado Watch 26 has been issued for roughly the I-20 corridor
southward in MS and portions of central LA through 20Z.

Morning water vapor imagery reveals a shortwave swinging into the
Lower MS Valley promoting increasing upper divergence. This has
helped spark off a NNE/SSW oriented band of convection shifting
eastward across central and southern portions of the CWA this
morning. Through much of the morning, this convection has remained
below severe thresholds and has been increasingly elevated with
northward extent. However, convection is becoming increasingly
vigorous over southern portions of the area. The surface front
remains well back to the west across the Red River Valley, so
scattered convection is expected to continue to develop and move
northeastward across especially the southeast half through the
remainder of the morning and early afternoon as the shortwave pushes
across the region. The shortwave is expected to push past the area
this afternoon, so we're thinking the severe threat will come to a
pretty quick conclusion by around mid afternoon.

In terms of hazards, all modes of severe weather remain possible.
Our 12Z sounding sampled a quite impressive 7.8 C/km mid level lapse
rate, so large hail might be the stand out threat of the day. The
better surface based instability is expected to hang over the south
and western portions of the area around the pool of mid 60s+
dewpoints. With a ~40 kt low level jet axis sliding across the area
through the day, there will be damaging wind gust potential with
convection that can become surface based. In addition, effective SRH
in the 300-400 m2/s2 range indicates the potential for tornadoes,
particularly along and south of the I-20 corridor, where storms are
more likely to be surface based.

The severe threat over the Delta may remain more limited due to a
lack of convective development, and things may be more limited over
the north central/northeast part of the area due to lesser low level
instability, though more impressive mid level lapse rates would still
portend a hail thread.

We will continue to make incremental forecast updates to adjust to
current trends, but no significant changes are planned at this time.
/DL/

Relevant portions of the prior discussion below:

Through tonight...

Storms look to clear out by late afternoon/early evening as the
upper level trough swings over the region. Clearing skies should even
occur from west to east by late day. There might be some lingering
very light rain in the eastern part of the state into the early
evening but the remainder of tonight should be dry. The actual cold
front won't make it into the region until later in the week, which
means that cooler weather won't move in right away. Overnight lows
tonight will only be in the lower 60s with some mid to upper 50s
possible in the Highway 82 corridor. Dewpoints will still remain in
the 50s and 60s so "muggy" conditions will continue, likely leading
to some fog potential for tonight. Dense fog is likely going to be a
concern, especially in locations that saw a good bit of rain today.
/28/

Wednesday through Monday

On Wednesday into Wednesday night there will be low end chances of
rain over the east half for the period. The showers will exit the
region by early Thursday. The cold front will finally move through
the region on late Wednesday night into Thursday. Pwats will be less
than 0.50 inch for any rain to develop ahead of the front for
Thursday. In the wake of the front we will have a brief cool down
before southerly return flow brings the forecast area back into a
warming trend as we move into the weekend. Daily highs will push back
into the mild 70s over the weekend. Upper ridging will build back
over the region over the weekend in response to a closed upper low
over the southwest Conus. This will bring back more chances of rain
for the weekend as pwats to back to around one inch. Rain chances
will continue into Monday as another cold front passes through the
forecast area. Drier conditions will come back for Monday night.

Looking ahead the models and their ensembles show the closed low
over the southwest Conus will phase in with northern stream upper
trough pushing into the Lower Mississippi Valley at the middle of
next week as our next storm system./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       77  62  77  47 /  62  11  13  15
Meridian      75  61  75  48 /  99  18  21  20
Vicksburg     78  60  77  47 /  33  11  10   9
Hattiesburg   76  63  77  55 / 100  13  18  18
Natchez       78  62  77  51 /  47  10  10   8
Greenville    75  55  73  41 /  40  11  13   8
Greenwood     75  56  73  41 /  61  11  19  13

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

DL/28/17

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1032 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>030-032-
034>037-040>042-047-081645-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Choctaw-
Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-
1032 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and northwest and north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

TORNADOES
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through early afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through early afternoon

Severe thunderstorms remain possible through shortly after noon.
Quarter sized hail is the primary threat, but damaging wind gusts and
a tornado are also possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today.

MSZ031-033-038-039-043>046-048>066-072>074-081645-
Lowndes-Oktibbeha-Winston-Noxubee-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
1032 AM CST Tue Feb 7 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central and south
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...The rest of Today and Tonight

TORNADOES
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Through mid afternoon

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Through mid afternoon

Severe thunderstorms are expected through mid afternoon. Hail to
around golfball size and damaging winds are the primary threats.
Tornadoes also will be possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region the rest
of today.

DL

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*TORNADOES*
Extreme...Confident in strong tornadoes with ratings EF2 or
 greater.
Significant...Strong tornadoes possible with ratings EF2 or
 greater.
Elevated...Confident in tornadoes.
Limited...Tornadoes possible.

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
Extreme...Confident in severe thunderstorms with wind gusts of
 75 mph or greater and/or 2 inch diameter or larger hail.
Significant...Severe thunderstorms possible with wind gusts of
 75 mph or greater and/or 2 inch diameter or larger hail.
Elevated...Confident in severe thunderstorms with winds gusts of
 60 mph or greater and/or 1 inch diameter or larger hail.
Limited...Severe thunderstorms possible with wind gusts of 60
 mph or greater and/or 1 inch diameter or larger hail.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe

Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1231 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     HAIL             3 NNE JACKSON           32.36N 90.19W
02/07/2017  E1.00 INCH       HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

&&

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1241 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

MSZ032-037-038-071900-
Attala MS-Winston MS-Choctaw MS-
1241 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ATTALA...
SOUTHEASTERN CHOCTAW AND NORTHWESTERN WINSTON COUNTIES UNTIL 100 PM
CST...

At 1241 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles southwest of Ackerman, or 16 miles west of Louisville, moving
east at 45 mph.

Dime size hail will be possible with this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Ackerman and Mcmillan around 1255 PM CST.
  Louisville around 100 PM CST.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Weir and Mccool.

LAT...LON 3309 8903 3309 8939 3327 8942 3336 8909
      3329 8909 3329 8904
TIME...MOT...LOC 1841Z 262DEG 39KT 3320 8932

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1246 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1240 PM     HAIL             FLOWOOD                 32.32N 90.11W
02/07/2017  E0.50 INCH       RANKIN             MS   PUBLIC

            DIME SIZE HAIL REPORTED ON GRANTS FERRY ROAD BETWEEN
            LAKELAND DRIVE AND SPILLWAY ROAD

&&

CME

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1250 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1220 PM     HAIL             4 NW FLOWOOD            32.37N 90.15W
02/07/2017  E1.00 INCH       HINDS              MS   PUBLIC

            LOTS OF HAIL ON INTERSTATE 55 WITH STONES UP TO QUARTER
            SIZE

&&

BRYANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1255 PM CST TUE FEB 07 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1209 PM     HAIL             TAYLORSVILLE            31.83N 89.43W
02/07/2017  E1.00 INCH       SMITH              MS   POST OFFICE

&&

CME

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
103 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

MSZ037-038-044-045-071930-
Attala MS-Leake MS-Winston MS-Neshoba MS-
103 PM CST TUE FEB 7 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NESHOBA...
NORTHEASTERN LEAKE...SOUTHEASTERN ATTALA AND SOUTHWESTERN WINSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM CST...

At 103 PM CST, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Renfroe, or 7 miles northwest of Edinburg, moving northeast at
35 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Zama around 115 PM CST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3274 8937 3288 8966 3311 8935 3287 8906
TIME...MOT...LOC 1903Z 236DEG 31KT 3286 8945

DC