Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Jackson, MS

674 
WWUS54 KJAN 280233
SVSJAN

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
933 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

MSC023-061-280243-
/O.CAN.KJAN.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-170328T0315Z/
Jasper MS-Clarke MS-
933 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EAST CENTRAL JASPER AND
WESTERN CLARKE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3192 8904 3208 8904 3218 8880 3188 8879
TIME...MOT...LOC 0232Z 261DEG 13KT 3200 8894 

$$

17

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
643 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion: Isold tsra wl cont mainly along and south of
I-20 through 02Z. Additional isold tsra wl be psbl tonight north
of I-20 as a weak cold front drifts into the area. Otherwise, MVFR
cigs are expected to develop and lower to IFR by 11Z again,
especially across the southern half of the area. Conds wl improve
to VFR areawide by 17Z. Isold shra/tsra are expected Wednesday.
/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through Tuesday: Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are ongoing across the CWA with a few storms reaching severe
criteria. Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper level
shortwave over SW Missouri with the trough axis extending down the
MS river valley. Current SPC mesoanalysis has anywhere from
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the region with moderate to steep
6.5-7 C mid level lapse rates in conjunction with 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear. This will help to maintain a severe
thunderstorm threat across the majority of the area with the main
threats being large hail (some of which could exceed golf ball
size in the strongest storms) and damaging winds. Shear remains
weak, especially in the low levels, and LCL heights are relatively
high so any tornado threat will remain isolated to the strongest
storms at best. The best potential for severe weather will be
along and north of the I-20 corridor through the early evening
hours, however severe storms are possible across the entire area.
Storms will tend to weaken into the evening as instability wanes
and the best forcing for ascent continues to pull out to the north
and east. Scattered shower and isolated storm potential will
remain during the evening in the NW where the lingering frontal
boundary will become quasi-stationary. Otherwise, fog potential
will return in a moist boundary layer, especially across the SE
and in the fog prone areas. Added mention in the forecast, but
left it out of the HWO for now as confidence is not high enough at
the moment. For Tuesday, a lingering boundary across central MS
will keep a warm and moist airmass in place. Daytime heating will
allow for weak to moderate destabilization but with weak lapse
rates and no source for forcing any storms that develop will be
isolated to scattered at best. No severe weather is expected with
this activity, although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.
/TW/

Tuesday Night through Monday:

The active weather pattern will continue through this work week
and the upcoming weekend as a parade of upper lows dig into the
Desert Southwest and move east across the country. The next period
to watch for the ArkLaMiss region specifically will be late
Wednesday night through Thursday night. A deepening low pressure
system over the Southern High Plains on Wednesday will lift toward
Missouri by Thursday night. While the finer details of this system
may change, the current thinking is that an MCS will approach
northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas by late Wednesday
night but should be weakening as it enters our area and outruns
the best instability. Warm, moist advection will continue across our
region through the day Thursday with dew points climbing into the
mid 60s and around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by the
afternoon. An additional round of convection is expected to
develop under these conditions before a cold front sweeps in with
drier and cooler air Thursday night. At this time, all modes of
severe weather look possible during the day Thursday with an
increasing heavy rain threat before the cold front moves through.
The next system looks to take shape by late in the weekend and
will possibly bring another round of severe thunderstorms through
the region some time Sunday into Monday. Be sure to tune in for
updates throughout the week as the details come into better focus
for these next few rounds of severe weather. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  83  63  87 /  51  25   9   2
Meridian      63  82  61  86 /  39  26   8   3
Vicksburg     65  82  63  86 /  36  24   9   5
Hattiesburg   63  83  63  86 /  24  22   6   2
Natchez       65  83  64  85 /  21  23   9   8
Greenville    60  78  62  83 /  43  17  14   3
Greenwood     61  79  62  85 /  62  21  13   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

TW/NF/22

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
346 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

ARZ074-LAZ007-024-026-MSZ060-061-064-066-072>074-282100-
Ashley-Morehouse-Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-Franklin MS-
Jefferson Davis-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
346 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, and south central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today through Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Isolated severe storms possible with damaging winds and hail up to
the size of quarters.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms are possible for extreme southeast
Arkansas, portions of central Mississippi, west central
Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
north central Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana on
Wednesday night.

Severe thunderstorms are possible for the entire outlook area
on Thursday.

A potent weather system will bring the potential for severe weather
to the entire outlook area from late Wednesday night through
Thursday. The primary severe weather concerns will be damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and the possibility for tornadoes. Locally
heavy rainfall is also possible. Stay tuned for updates
concerning this potential severe weather event.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight and Wednesday night through
Thursday.

ARZ075-MSZ018-282100-
Chicot-Bolivar-
346 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly through the rest of this afternoon

Severe storms possible with damaging winds, hail up to the size of
golf balls, and a tornado can not be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image*.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms are possible for extreme southeast
Arkansas, portions of central Mississippi, west central
Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
north central Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana on
Wednesday night.

Severe thunderstorms are possible for the entire outlook area
on Thursday.

A potent weather system will bring the potential for severe weather
to the entire outlook area from late Wednesday night through
Thursday. The primary severe weather concerns will be damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and the possibility for tornadoes. Locally
heavy rainfall is also possible. Stay tuned for updates
concerning this potential severe weather event.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image*.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight and Wednesday night through
Thursday.

LAZ008-009-015-016-023-025-MSZ019-034>059-062-063-065-282100-
West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-
Sunflower-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-
Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-
Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Jefferson-Lincoln-Lawrence-Covington-
346 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, and south
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe storms possible with damaging winds, hail up to the size of
golf balls, and a tornado can not be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms are possible for extreme southeast
Arkansas, portions of central Mississippi, west central
Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
north central Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana on
Wednesday night.

Severe thunderstorms are possible for the entire outlook area
on Thursday.

A potent weather system will bring the potential for severe weather
to the entire outlook area from late Wednesday night through
Thursday. The primary severe weather concerns will be damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and the possibility for tornadoes. Locally
heavy rainfall is also possible. Stay tuned for updates
concerning this potential severe weather event.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight and Wednesday night through
Thursday.

MSZ026-028>033-282100-
Grenada-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-
346 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, north central Mississippi, and northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...The rest of this afternoon through tonight

Severe storms expected with damaging winds, golf ball size hail,
and a tornado or two possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms are possible for extreme southeast
Arkansas, portions of central Mississippi, west central
Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
north central Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana on
Wednesday night.

Severe thunderstorms are possible for the entire outlook area
on Thursday.

A potent weather system will bring the potential for severe weather
to the entire outlook area from late Wednesday night through
Thursday. The primary severe weather concerns will be damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and the possibility for tornadoes. Locally
heavy rainfall is also possible. Stay tuned for updates
concerning this potential severe weather event.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight and Wednesday night through
Thursday.

MSZ025-027-282100-
Leflore-Carroll-
346 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of north central
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tuesday

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Mainly through the rest of this afternoon

Severe storms expected with damaging winds, golf ball size hail,
and a tornado or two possible.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday night through Sunday

Severe thunderstorms are possible for extreme southeast
Arkansas, portions of central Mississippi, west central
Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, northwest Mississippi,
north central Mississippi, and northeast Louisiana on
Wednesday night.

Severe thunderstorms are possible for the entire outlook area
on Thursday.

A potent weather system will bring the potential for severe weather
to the entire outlook area from late Wednesday night through
Thursday. The primary severe weather concerns will be damaging wind
gusts, large hail, and the possibility for tornadoes. Locally
heavy rainfall is also possible. Stay tuned for updates
concerning this potential severe weather event.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region remainder
of the afternoon through tonight and Wednesday night through
Thursday.

1

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
845 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 SE LAUREL             31.61N 89.03W
03/27/2017                   JONES              MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE ON HOME .

&&

NWS JACKSON MS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
851 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0735 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 ESE BRANDON           32.28N 89.99W
03/27/2017                   RANKIN             MS   NWS EMPLOYEE

            TREES DOWN ALONG HWY 471.

&&

NWS JACKSON MS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
910 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0624 PM     TSTM WND DMG     12 S VICKSBURG          32.16N 90.90W
03/27/2017                   WARREN             MS   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE ON HOME ON HANKINSON ROAD; 18 LARGE
            TREES DOWN ALONG CAMPBELL SWAMP RD. .

&&

NWS JACKSON MS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
918 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0738 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 ESE BRANDON           32.28N 89.97W
03/27/2017                   RANKIN             MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE ON POWERLINE ON DOGWOOD DRIVE .

&&

NWS JACKSON MS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
920 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 WSW BRANDON           32.28N 90.02W
03/27/2017                   RANKIN             MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            RADIO ANTENNA FROM BRANDON FIRE STATION #1
            BLOWN DOWN .

&&

NWS JACKSON MS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
922 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S BRANDON             32.25N 90.00W
03/27/2017                   RANKIN             MS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TREE FELL ON 2 CARS ON WINDSOR BLVD.

&&

NWS JACKSON MS
IRIS SYSTEM