Severe Thunderstorm Warning 136, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
643 PM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 00Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF discussion: Isold tsra wl cont mainly along and south of
I-20 through 02Z. Additional isold tsra wl be psbl tonight north
of I-20 as a weak cold front drifts into the area. Otherwise, MVFR
cigs are expected to develop and lower to IFR by 11Z again,
especially across the southern half of the area. Conds wl improve
to VFR areawide by 17Z. Isold shra/tsra are expected Wednesday.
/22/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Rest of today through Tuesday: Numerous showers and thunderstorms
are ongoing across the CWA with a few storms reaching severe
criteria. Latest water vapor imagery shows a mid/upper level
shortwave over SW Missouri with the trough axis extending down the
MS river valley. Current SPC mesoanalysis has anywhere from
1000-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE across the region with moderate to steep
6.5-7 C mid level lapse rates in conjunction with 30-40 kts of
effective bulk shear. This will help to maintain a severe
thunderstorm threat across the majority of the area with the main
threats being large hail (some of which could exceed golf ball
size in the strongest storms) and damaging winds. Shear remains
weak, especially in the low levels, and LCL heights are relatively
high so any tornado threat will remain isolated to the strongest
storms at best. The best potential for severe weather will be
along and north of the I-20 corridor through the early evening
hours, however severe storms are possible across the entire area.
Storms will tend to weaken into the evening as instability wanes
and the best forcing for ascent continues to pull out to the north
and east. Scattered shower and isolated storm potential will
remain during the evening in the NW where the lingering frontal
boundary will become quasi-stationary. Otherwise, fog potential
will return in a moist boundary layer, especially across the SE
and in the fog prone areas. Added mention in the forecast, but
left it out of the HWO for now as confidence is not high enough at
the moment. For Tuesday, a lingering boundary across central MS
will keep a warm and moist airmass in place. Daytime heating will
allow for weak to moderate destabilization but with weak lapse
rates and no source for forcing any storms that develop will be
isolated to scattered at best. No severe weather is expected with
this activity, although a strong storm or two cannot be ruled out.
/TW/

Tuesday Night through Monday:

The active weather pattern will continue through this work week
and the upcoming weekend as a parade of upper lows dig into the
Desert Southwest and move east across the country. The next period
to watch for the ArkLaMiss region specifically will be late
Wednesday night through Thursday night. A deepening low pressure
system over the Southern High Plains on Wednesday will lift toward
Missouri by Thursday night. While the finer details of this system
may change, the current thinking is that an MCS will approach
northeast Louisiana and southeast Arkansas by late Wednesday
night but should be weakening as it enters our area and outruns
the best instability. Warm, moist advection will continue across our
region through the day Thursday with dew points climbing into the
mid 60s and around 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE developing by the
afternoon. An additional round of convection is expected to
develop under these conditions before a cold front sweeps in with
drier and cooler air Thursday night. At this time, all modes of
severe weather look possible during the day Thursday with an
increasing heavy rain threat before the cold front moves through.
The next system looks to take shape by late in the weekend and
will possibly bring another round of severe thunderstorms through
the region some time Sunday into Monday. Be sure to tune in for
updates throughout the week as the details come into better focus
for these next few rounds of severe weather. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       64  83  63  87 /  51  25   9   2
Meridian      63  82  61  86 /  39  26   8   3
Vicksburg     65  82  63  86 /  36  24   9   5
Hattiesburg   63  83  63  86 /  24  22   6   2
Natchez       65  83  64  85 /  21  23   9   8
Greenville    60  78  62  83 /  43  17  14   3
Greenwood     61  79  62  85 /  62  21  13   4

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

TW/NF/22

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
559 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     HAIL             BAY SPRINGS             31.98N 89.29W
03/27/2017  E0.75 INCH       JASPER             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            .

&&

NWS JACKSON MS
IRIS SYSTEM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
608 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

MSZ058-280015-
Clarke MS-
608 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL CLARKE COUNTY UNTIL 715
PM CDT...

At 608 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking a strong thunderstorm
over Barnett, or 12 miles west of Quitman, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Goodwater around 625 PM CDT.
  Quitman around 640 PM CDT.
  De Soto around 645 PM CDT.
  Crandall around 710 PM CDT.

Other locations impacted by this storm include Pachuta and Shubuta.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3190 8847 3189 8848 3185 8868 3192 8891
      3211 8891 3206 8845
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 283DEG 19KT 3202 8893

GRG

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
637 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE NEWELLTON         32.01N 91.22W
03/27/2017                   TENSAS             LA   PUBLIC

            ABOUT A DOZEN POWER POLES AND SEVERAL TREES
            KNOCKED DOWN AROUND LAKE ST JOSEPH SOUTH OF
            NEWELLTON, LA.

&&

JPM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
700 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             1 ESE HEIDELBERG        31.88N 88.97W
03/27/2017  E1.00 INCH       JASPER             MS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            QUARTERS MIXED WITH DIME SIZE. .

&&

NWS JACKSON MS
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
713 PM CDT MON MAR 27 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0645 PM     HAIL             2 NW HEIDELBERG         31.91N 89.01W
03/27/2017  U1.00 INCH       JASPER             MS   PUBLIC

            .

&&

NWS JACKSON MS
IRIS SYSTEM