River Flood Warning 54, NWS Jackson, MS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1254 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 18Z aviation discussion

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF discussion:
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue to
allow for continued MVFR conditions through the period. Where
storms occur, brief IFR conditions will exist along with gusty
wind near 30 knots./26/

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Large area of mostly tropical rain continues this morning over the
ArkLaMiss Delta region with enough heavy rainfall being produced
to prompt flash flood warnings for part of the area. CAM models
show the rain area spreading to the east as the circulation center
moves into TN/KY.

A cold front dropping south into the region tonight looks to bring
some potent convection with it, but uncertainties exist at the
moment as to whether it will move into the forecast area./26/

Prior discussion below:

Through tonight:

At the time of this writing the center of Tropical Depression
Cindy was located over southeastern Arkansas and advancing in the
general direction of Memphis. Most of the consolidated heavy rain
associated with the center of Cindy has remained west of the
forecast area through most of the night, although just recently
some of this is starting to nudge into the Arklamiss Delta.
Meanwhile, the solid secondary thin heavy rain band causing issues
in the past 12 hours from coastal MS N/NE into central AL has
starting to break up some and migrate back to the west,
essentially bringing a stream of heavier showers back into SE MS,
at least temporarily.

For today, the remnants of Cindy will pick up speed to the
northeast as the trough associated with the current depression
links up with the southern fringes of the relatively fast northern
jet stream. As Cindy passes to the north of the region expect high
moisture transport north into the system to fuel additional
pockets of heavy rain through the our region, and even continue
to produce enough shear to warrant a low-end risk of severe
weather (mainly in the form of locally gusty winds and perhaps a
tornado or two). This risk of severe weather today will mainly be
for central and eastern zones and will be highlighted in the HWO
and graphics. The overall flooding threat fortunately does not
appear as impressive as it could be considering the close
vicinity of the passing tropical system, but there still remains
enough localized flash flooding threat (particularly over areas
that have received heavy rain in the past two days) to continue
the going flash flood through the afternoon in all areas.
Otherwise, there is a decent possibility at least the western
third of zones may be clear of a good deal of the rain by this
afternoon and some breaks in the clouds there could allow temps to
peak late into the upper 80s. Most other locales in the forecast
area will experience highs mainly in the low to mid 80s.

But the rain will certainly not be over after this afternoon,
especially along and north of the I-20 corridor. Model consensus
is pretty good that a cold front in the wake of the passing Cindy
will get shoved south quickly enough to work into northern
portions of the region from late evening through the overnight.
Current very tame lapse rates aloft will have recovered some by
then and lingering high moisture (precipitable water values around
2 inches) should be enough to yield a good deal of additional
showers and thunderstorms, even late into the night. Considering
non-insignificant flow aloft due to the southern fringes of the
impinging northern stream and the better lapse rates some strong
to maybe even marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out. In
addition, flooding will of course remain possible with some of
this activity in areas that are already saturated, although at
this time we will not extend the flash flood watch into tonight
because moisture transport that normally drives flash flooding
situations will have really calmed down. The subsequent shift will
examine the situation closely and make any adjustments necessary.
/BB/

Saturday through Thursday:

Models and their ensembles were continuing to show a somewhat
active period in the wake of Cindy. There will be plenty of
moisture in its wake with pwats in excess of 2 inches for
Saturday, which spells some locally heavy rainfall potential.
Meanwhile a broad latitude upper trough will bring a front into
the region over the weekend. Model solutions seem to bring the
front through the region a little faster on the 00z run by Sunday
morning. Drier air will come through the region behind the front
on Sunday night. This will confine our rain chances across our
southern counties at this time. Upper troughing will increase some
across the southeastern conus as high pressure builds into the
region from the Midsouth. By Monday evening the drier air will
scour out our rain chances across the south. Pwats will be
generally less than one inch. Nightly lows early next week will
dip into the comfortable 60s. As we go into the mid week period
the upper trough will exit to the east as upper ridging builds in
from the Southern Plains. This will allow return gulf flow to come
back across the region as pwats increase to around the 1.2 to 1.5
inch range. This will allow diurnal convective rain chances to
develop over the region./17/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  74  84  69 /  78  62  69  32
Meridian      86  74  85  68 /  67  61  80  38
Vicksburg     82  73  84  69 /  92  67  73  24
Hattiesburg   87  75  87  71 /  67  34  75  51
Natchez       83  74  84  70 /  72  50  78  38
Greenville    83  72  83  66 /  88  68  50  17
Greenwood     81  73  84  65 /  78  70  52  18

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for MSZ018-019-
     025>066-072>074.

LA...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for LAZ007>009-015-
     016-023>026.

AR...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening for ARZ074-075.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
438 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

ARZ074-LAZ007-015-016-023-025-240945-
Ashley-Morehouse-Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Tensas-
438 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas and northeast Louisiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today through Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Tonight

Localized flooding is possible through tonight as pockets of
heavy rain and thunderstorms impact the region.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible, mainly tonight, when the
main threats will be from damaging wind gusts and hail.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region tonight.

ARZ075-LAZ008-009-MSZ018-019-025>029-032>052-056>058-240945-
Chicot-West Carroll-East Carroll-Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-
Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Washington-
Humphreys-Holmes-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-
438 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, and north
central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mainly Today

Localized flooding is expected, mainly today, as pockets of heavy
rain and thunderstorms impact the region. Some very isolated
flooding risk will linger into tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible through tonight.
The main risk with any severe storms today will be potentially
damaging wind gusts and tornadoes while tonight the main risk will
be damaging wind gusts and hail.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ030-031-240945-
Clay-Lowndes-
438 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Mainly Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Mainly Today

Localized flooding is expected, mainly today, as pockets of heavy
rain and thunderstorms impact the region. Some very isolated
flooding risk will linger into tonight.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible through tonight, especially
today. The main risk with any severe storms today will be
potentially damaging wind gusts and tornadoes while tonight the
main risk will be damaging wind gusts and hail.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ024-026-MSZ053-059>062-240945-
Catahoula-Concordia-Claiborne-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-
438 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, south central Mississippi, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Today

Localized flooding is possible today as pockets of heavy rain and
thunderstorms impact the region.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Thursday.

MSZ054-055-063>066-072>074-240945-
Copiah-Simpson-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-Marion-
Lamar-Forrest-
438 AM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Today

Localized flooding is expected today as pockets of heavy rain and
thunderstorms impact the region.

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible today. The main
risk with any severe storms today will be potentially damaging
wind gusts and tornadoes.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today.

50

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Tropical page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/tropical
National Hurricane Center Home Page...
   www.nhc.noaa.gov/
Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/
Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
153 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1108 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S VICKSBURG           32.31N 90.87W
06/23/2017                   WARREN             MS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER LINES DOWNED ALONG LAKEHILL DR.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
157 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 AM     TSTM WND DMG     3 ENE JACKSON           32.34N 90.17W
06/23/2017                   HINDS              MS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            POWER LINES DOWNED BY LARGE LIMBS ALONG
            KINGS HIGHWAY NEAR OLD CANTON RD. ESTIMATED
            45 MPH WIND.

&&

DL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
202 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0152 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 WSW PELAHATCHIE       32.29N 89.88W
06/23/2017                   RANKIN             MS   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            FLOODING ON US 80 AT GULDE RD.

&&

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
210 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

MSZ055-063-231945-
Lawrence MS-Simpson MS-
210 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTH
CENTRAL SIMPSON AND NORTHERN LAWRENCE COUNTIES...

At 208 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking thunderstorms producing
very heavy rainfall along a line extending from near Mendenhall to
near Sontag. Movement was northeast at 40 mph.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
localized flooding.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Shivers, Sontag, Oma, Wanilla and New Hebron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3156 9024 3171 9024 3172 9022 3173 9019
      3175 9012 3177 9013 3178 9012 3177 9011
      3179 9011 3179 9014 3182 9011 3191 8982
      3176 8993 3176 8997 3171 8997 3155 9010
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 229DEG 33KT 3190 8987 3166 9017

DL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Jackson MS
219 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

MSZ052-232015-
Lauderdale MS-
219 PM CDT FRI JUN 23 2017

...CLUSTER OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT LAUDERDALE COUNTY
THROUGH 315 PM CDT...

At 218 PM CDT, Meteorologists were tracking strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Hickory to Meridian Naval Air
Station. Movement was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lauderdale, Meridian, Meridian Station, Marion, Zero, Increase,
Meehan, Toomsuba, Savoy, Suqualena, Kewanee, Nellieburg, Alamucha and
Daleville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

High winds can bring down trees and large limbs resulting in serious
injury or property damage. Exercise extreme caution when outdoors
during such strong winds...and be especially aware of older trees.

&&

LAT...LON 3223 8843 3223 8891 3244 8891 3258 8875
      3258 8839
TIME...MOT...LOC 1918Z 262DEG 34KT 3255 8853 3223 8889

DL