River Flood Warning 21, NWS Jackson, MS

874 
WGUS84 KJAN 042014
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
314 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Chunky River Near Chunky affecting Lauderdale and Newton Counties 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 

Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC075-101-052129-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170405T2129Z/
/CKYM6.1.ER.170404T1454Z.170405T0000Z.170405T0629Z.NO/
314 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

...Flood Warning extended until Wednesday afternoon...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Chunky River Near Chunky
* until Wednesday afternoon.
* At  2:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 22.8 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 23.0 feet by this
  evening.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Chunky River 
Chunky         22  22.8 Tue 02 PM  18.6   8.3   5.1  23.0 07 PM 04/04


&&


LAT...LON 3216 8890 3229 8896 3241 8909 3250 8897
      3237 8882 3220 8879             



$$

401 
WGUS84 KJAN 050131
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
831 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017


...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in 
Mississippi...

  Chunky River Near Chunky affecting Lauderdale and Newton Counties 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 


The next regularly scheduled update is expected between 8 and 10 AM.

&&

MSC075-101-051640-
/O.EXT.KJAN.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170405T1640Z/
/CKYM6.1.ER.170404T1454Z.170404T2030Z.170405T0140Z.NO/
831 PM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017


The Flood Warning continues for
  The Chunky River Near Chunky
* until Wednesday morning.
* At 8:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 22.4 feet.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue falling and will fall below 
  flood stage by this evening.
* Impact...At 22.0 feet...Considerable areas of pastureland south of 
  the river gage begin to flood.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Wed   Thu   Fri Crest Time  Date

Chunky River 
Chunky         22  22.4 Tue 08 PM  12.7   6.2   4.8     M M          


&&


LAT...LON 3216 8890 3229 8896 3241 8909 3250 8897
      3237 8882 3220 8879             



$$

707 
WGUS84 KJAN 051422
FLSJAN
FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON, MS
922 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017


...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers 
in ...
 
  Chunky River Near Chunky affecting Lauderdale and Newton Counties


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive or walk through areas where water covers roadway! The 
water may be deeper than it appears. Remember...Turn around, don't 
drown!

Forecasts are based on rainfall that has occurred and that which is 
forecast to occur. Routine 24 hours of forecast rainfall is used for 
most sites. 


Additional information is available at:  
http://water.weather.gov/ahps2/index.php?wfo=jan

The next regularly scheduled update is expected tonight between 8 and
10 PM.

&&

MSC075-101-051452-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FL.W.0021.000000T0000Z-170405T1640Z/
/CKYM6.1.ER.170404T1454Z.170404T2030Z.170405T0257Z.NO/
922 AM CDT Wed Apr 5 2017

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Chunky River Near Chunky.
* At  9:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 18.4 feet.
* The river fell below flood stage at 9:57 PM on Tuesday.
* Flood stage is 22.0 feet.
* Forecast...The river will continue to fall to 12.7 feet by tomorrow.

&&
 
              Flood    Observed        Forecast 6 AM      Crest
Location      Stg   Stg Day  Time   Thu   Fri   Sat Crest Time  Date

Chunky River 
Chunky         22  18.4 Wed 09 AM  12.7   8.7   6.2    

&&


LAT...LON 3216 8890 3229 8896 3241 8909 3250 8897
      3237 8882 3220 8879             



$$

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
638 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

.UPDATE...
Updated for 12Z aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF discussion:
VFR conditions will prevail for the majority of the period.
MVFR/IFR ceilings will move into the area after 05/06Z and linger
through the end of the period. VCTS will begin impacting GTR, MEI
and HBG after 05/06Z as well./26/

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: Mid level zonal flow beginning to be replaced by
southwesterly flow as next storm system pulls out of the Rockies
into the western High Plains. The system will move through the
Plains and into the mid MS valley by tonight when it will begin to
impact our area. Meanwhile at the surface, low level southerly flow
will remain weak today as dewpoints mix out into the 50s.

As the mid level system draws nearer tonight, the warm advection
response will begin pulling the coastal baroclinic zone back north.
Upper 60s dewpoints along with high theta-e air in the lower levels
will surge north behind the boundary over southwest sections after
midnight. MLCAPEs of 2000-3000 J/kg will surge northward over
eastern portions, but the majority of this will be slightly
elevated. However, some of this looks to become surface based after
05/09Z over the far southeast sections. Large hail looks to be the
primary severe weather threat given these CAPEs, vertical totals
around 30 and the 50+ knots of deep layer shear in place across the
region. However, over southeast sections late tonight where
developing convection will be rooted at the surface, damaging wind
gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible as LCLs will be low, 0-1
km shear values around 30 knots and 0-1 km SRH around 200 m2/s2.
/26/

Wednesday through Monday:

Some of the Tonight/Wednesday morning thunderstorm activity will
likely carry over into the first part of the day tomorrow. A
deepening low pressure system will be moving from the Plains to
the Midwest on Wednesday, keeping a very unstable warm sector over
portions of the ArkLaMiss before a cold front sweeps through.
MLCAPE values of 2000 to 2500 J/kg and approximately 50 kts of
deep layer shear across the Pine Belt region warrant an Enhanced
severe weather threat continuing into the day for the far eastern
portions of our forecast area. Damaging wind gusts and large hail
will be the primary hazards, but the onset of daytime heating and
increasing low level moisture will keep a chance for tornadoes
with the stronger storms. Currently the expectation is for the
morning activity to tap into the best moisture and instability,
but depending on the speed of the cold front, a few thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out developing farther north and west in our area
between mid morning and early afternoon. Enough low level
moisture and instability (a more modest 1000-1500 J/kg of MLCAPE)
should exist ahead of the cold front for more isolated severe
thunderstorms to possibly develop through around noontime. This
activity would also be more highly sheared as the upper level
trough swings overhead.

All said, the severe weather threat should end across the area by
Wednesday afternoon. Cooler temperatures will be felt in the wake
of the cold front through into the weekend. Highs in the mid to
upper 60s/low 70s and lows generally in the 40s are expected
through Saturday. The coldest night is likely to be Friday
night/Saturday morning as a 1020 mb surface moves into the region,
bringing light winds and clear skies. Locations east of I-55 and
north of I-20 have the greatest chances to reach frost
temperatures early Saturday morning. Then a warming trend with
gradually increasing rain chances will round out the forecast
heading into early next week. Northeast Louisiana, southeast
Arkansas, and northwestern portions of Mississippi will have the
best chance to see rain Monday as subtropical moisture is drawn
northeastward from the Western Gulf of Mexico around an upper
ridge. /NF/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       85  64  77  47 /   1  35  26   5
Meridian      85  62  79  47 /   1  47  51   8
Vicksburg     85  64  74  47 /   1  24  13   3
Hattiesburg   85  65  82  49 /   1  48  49   4
Natchez       84  64  74  48 /   1  23  16   2
Greenville    82  62  70  47 /   1  22  11   5
Greenwood     83  62  73  45 /   1  24  22   9

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

&&

NF/26

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
903 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>029-034>036-
040>042-047-059-060-051415-
Ashley-Chicot-Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-
Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Bolivar-
Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Washington-
Humphreys-Holmes-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-Jefferson-Adams-
903 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, northeast Louisiana, central Mississippi, north central
Mississippi, northwest Mississippi, southwest Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations is not expected through next Monday.

MSZ030>033-037-038-043-044-048-049-053-054-061-051415-
Clay-Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-Madison MS-Leake-
Hinds-Rankin-Claiborne-Copiah-Franklin MS-
903 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, northeast Mississippi, and
southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Marginal
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly after 3 am
tonight. Up to quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts will be
possible with these storms.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible Wednesday
morning. Up to quarter size hail and damaging wind gusts will
continue to be possible with these storms.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Wednesday night.

MSZ039-045-046-050>052-055>058-062>066-072>074-051415-
Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-Scott-Newton-Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-
Jasper-Clarke-Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Jones-
Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
903 AM CDT Tue Apr 4 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, south central Mississippi,
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Today through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms will be possible mainly after 3 am tonight.
Quarter to golf ball size hail and damaging wind gusts will be
the primary severe weather threats. However, a tornado cannot be
ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated severe thunderstorms will remain possible Wednesday
morning. Quarter to golf ball size hail and damaging wind gusts
will continue to be the primary severe weather threats. However, a
tornado cannot be ruled out.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image1.png)

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through Wednesday night.

21

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/