Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Jackson, MS

Catahoula Parish, LA, Concordia Parish, LA, East Carroll Parish, LA, Franklin Parish, LA, Madison Parish, LA, Morehouse Parish, LA, Richland Parish, LA, Tensas Parish, LA, West Carroll Parish, LA, Adams County, MS, Claiborne County, MS, Clarke County, MS, Copiah County, MS, Covington County, MS, Forrest County, MS, Franklin County, MS, Hinds County, MS, Issaquena County, MS, Jasper County, MS, Jefferson County, MS, Jefferson Davis County, MS, Jones County, MS, Kemper County, MS, Lamar County, MS, Lauderdale County, MS, Lawrence County, MS, Leake County, MS, Lincoln County, MS, Madison County, MS, Marion County, MS, Neshoba County, MS, Newton County, MS, Rankin County, MS, Scott County, MS, Sharkey County, MS, Simpson County, MS, Smith County, MS, Warren County, MS, Yazoo County, MS

543 
WGUS64 KJAN 021435 AAA
FFAJAN

Flood Watch...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
935 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
FROM THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>044-047>050-053>056-059>065-072-
073-022245-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0003.170402T2000Z-170403T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Marion-Lamar-
Including the cities of Bastrop, Oak Grove, Epps, 
Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro, 
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof, 
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Mayersville, Rolling Fork, 
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, 
Vicksburg, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, 
Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Wesson, Magee, 
Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Fayette, Natchez, Bude, Roxie,
Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss, 
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Columbia, West Hattiesburg, 
Lumberton, and Purvis
935 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM CDT THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the 
  following areas in northeast Louisiana, Catahoula, Concordia, 
  East Carroll, Franklin LA, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland, 
  Tensas and West Carroll. In Mississippi, Adams, Claiborne, 
  Copiah, Covington, Franklin MS, Hinds, Issaquena, Jefferson, 
  Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Lawrence, Leake, Lincoln, Madison MS, 
  Marion, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Simpson, Smith, Warren and 
  Yazoo. 

* From 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday morning

* Rainfall amounts ranging from 2 to 4 inches over a short 
  amount of time could lead to flash flooding. 

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor 
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways, 
  remember to turn around, don't drown. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$

795 
WGUS64 KJAN 022051
FFAJAN

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
351 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>044-047>050-053>056-059>065-072-
073-030500-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170403T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Marion-Lamar-
Including the cities of Bastrop, Oak Grove, Epps, 
Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro, 
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof, 
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Mayersville, Rolling Fork, 
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, 
Vicksburg, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, 
Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Wesson, Magee, 
Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Fayette, Natchez, Bude, Roxie,
Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss, 
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Columbia, West Hattiesburg, 
Lumberton, and Purvis
351 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the 
  following areas in northeast Louisiana, Catahoula, Concordia, 
  East Carroll, Franklin LA, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland, 
  Tensas and West Carroll. In Mississippi, Adams, Claiborne, 
  Copiah, Covington, Franklin MS, Hinds, Issaquena, Jefferson, 
  Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Lawrence, Leake, Lincoln, Madison MS, 
  Marion, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Simpson, Smith, Warren and 
  Yazoo. 

* Through Monday morning

* Rainfall amounts ranging from 3 to 5 inches over a short amount
  of time could lead to flash flooding. 

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor 
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways, 
  remember to turn around, don't drown. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$

082 
WGUS64 KJAN 030222
FFAJAN

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
922 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY MORNING...

MSZ074-031030-
/O.EXA.KJAN.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170403T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Forrest-
Including the city of Hattiesburg
922 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Jackson has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include a portion of southeast 
  Mississippi, including the following area Forrest. 

* Until 9 AM CDT Monday

* Rainfall amounts ranging from 3 to 5 inches over a short 
  amount of time could lead to flash flooding. 

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor 
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways, 
  remember to turn around, don't drown. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$

LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ040>044-047>050-053>056-059>065-072-
073-031030-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170403T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-
Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-
Simpson-Smith-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-Lincoln-Lawrence-
Jefferson Davis-Covington-Marion-Lamar-
Including the cities of Bastrop, Oak Grove, Epps, 
Lake Providence, Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro, 
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof, 
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Mayersville, Rolling Fork, 
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, 
Vicksburg, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, 
Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Wesson, Magee, 
Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Fayette, Natchez, Bude, Roxie,
Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss, 
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Columbia, West Hattiesburg, 
Lumberton, and Purvis
922 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the 
  following areas in northeast Louisiana, Catahoula, Concordia, 
  East Carroll, Franklin LA, Madison LA, Morehouse, Richland, 
  Tensas and West Carroll. In Mississippi, Adams, Claiborne, 
  Copiah, Covington, Franklin MS, Hinds, Issaquena, Jefferson, 
  Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Lawrence, Leake, Lincoln, Madison MS, 
  Marion, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, Simpson, Smith, Warren and 
  Yazoo. 

* Until 9 AM CDT Monday

* Rainfall amounts ranging from 3 to 5 inches over a short 
  amount of time could lead to flash flooding. 

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor 
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways, 
  remember to turn around, don't drown. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$

861 
WGUS64 KJAN 030236 AAA
FFAJAN

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Watch...UPDATED
National Weather Service Jackson MS
936 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...

LAZ007>009-030345-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170403T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-
Including the cities of Bastrop, Oak Grove, Epps, 
and Lake Providence
936 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for a portion of northeast Louisiana has
been cancelled. Moderate rain will continue across the area during
the next several hours but will not be enough to contribute to
flash flooding.

$$

MSZ045-046-051-052-057-058-066-031045-
/O.EXA.KJAN.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170403T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Neshoba-Kemper-Newton-Lauderdale-Jasper-Clarke-Jones-
Including the cities of Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, 
Scooba, Newton, Union, Decatur, Conehatta, Meridian, Bay Springs,
Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, and Laurel
936 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY...

The National Weather Service in Jackson has expanded the

* Flash Flood Watch to include portions of east central 
  Mississippi and southeast Mississippi, including the following 
  areas in east central Mississippi, Clarke, Jasper, Kemper, 
  Lauderdale, Neshoba and Newton. In southeast Mississippi, 
  Jones. 

* Until 9 AM CDT Monday

* Rainfall amounts ranging from 3 to 5 inches over a short 
  amount of time could lead to flash flooding. 

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor 
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways, 
  remember to turn around, don't drown. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ040>044-047>050-053>056-059>065-072>074-
031045-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170403T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jefferson-Adams-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro, 
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof, 
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Mayersville, Rolling Fork, 
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, 
Vicksburg, Jackson, Pearl, Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, 
Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, Hazlehurst, Wesson, Magee, 
Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, Fayette, Natchez, Bude, Roxie,
Meadville, Brookhaven, Monticello, New Hebron, Prentiss, 
Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Columbia, West Hattiesburg, 
Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
936 PM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT MONDAY...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of northeast Louisiana and Mississippi, including the 
  following areas in northeast Louisiana, Catahoula, Concordia, 
  Franklin LA, Madison LA, Richland and Tensas. In Mississippi, 
  Adams, Claiborne, Copiah, Covington, Forrest, Franklin MS, 
  Hinds, Issaquena, Jefferson, Jefferson Davis, Lamar, Lawrence, 
  Leake, Lincoln, Madison MS, Marion, Rankin, Scott, Sharkey, 
  Simpson, Smith, Warren and Yazoo. 

* Until 9 AM CDT Monday

* Rainfall amounts ranging from 3 to 5 inches over a short 
  amount of time could lead to flash flooding. 

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor 
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways, 
  remember to turn around, don't drown. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$

588 
WGUS64 KJAN 031050
FFAJAN

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Jackson MS
550 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS LEADING TO FLASH FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING...

LAZ015-016-023>026-MSZ040>042-047-053-054-059>062-031200-
/O.CAN.KJAN.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170403T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Richland-Madison LA-Franklin LA-Catahoula-Tensas-Concordia-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Warren-Claiborne-Copiah-Jefferson-Adams-
Franklin MS-Lincoln-
Including the cities of Rayville, Delhi, Tallulah, Winnsboro, 
Jonesville, Harrisonburg, Newellton, St. Joseph, Waterproof, 
Vidalia, Ferriday, West Ferriday, Mayersville, Rolling Fork, 
Anguilla, Yazoo City, Vicksburg, Port Gibson, Crystal Springs, 
Hazlehurst, Wesson, Fayette, Natchez, Bude, Roxie, Meadville, 
and Brookhaven
550 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS CANCELLED...

The Flash Flood Watch for portions of northeast Louisiana and
central Mississippi has been cancelled. Runoff from heavy rainfall
overnight may collect in some low lying areas, but the threat for
widespread flash flooding has ended.

$$

MSZ043>046-048>052-055>058-063>066-072>074-031400-
/O.CON.KJAN.FF.A.0003.000000T0000Z-170403T1400Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Madison MS-Leake-Neshoba-Kemper-Hinds-Rankin-Scott-Newton-
Lauderdale-Simpson-Smith-Jasper-Clarke-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-
Covington-Jones-Marion-Lamar-Forrest-
Including the cities of Ridgeland, Madison, Canton, Carthage, 
Philadelphia, Pearl River, De Kalb, Scooba, Jackson, Pearl, 
Brandon, Richland, Forest, Morton, Newton, Union, Decatur, 
Conehatta, Meridian, Magee, Mendenhall, Taylorsville, Raleigh, 
Bay Springs, Heidelberg, Quitman, Stonewall, Shubuta, Monticello,
New Hebron, Prentiss, Bassfield, Collins, Mount Olive, Laurel, 
Columbia, West Hattiesburg, Lumberton, Purvis, and Hattiesburg
550 AM CDT Mon Apr 3 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 AM CDT THIS
MORNING...

The Flash Flood Watch continues for

* Portions of central Mississippi, east central Mississippi, 
  south central Mississippi and southeast Mississippi, including 
  the following areas in central Mississippi, Hinds, Leake, 
  Madison MS, Rankin, Scott, Simpson and Smith. In east central 
  Mississippi, Clarke, Jasper, Kemper, Lauderdale, Neshoba and 
  Newton. In south central Mississippi, Jefferson Davis, 
  Lawrence and Marion. In southeast Mississippi, Covington, 
  Forrest, Jones and Lamar. 

* Until 9 AM CDT this morning

* Rainfall amounts ranging from 4 to 8 inches have fallen across
  portions of the affected area overnight, resulting in flash
  flooding and high water rescues. An additional one half inch to
  1 inch of rainfall will be possible across eastern portions of 
  Mississippi through 9 AM CDT today.

* The flooding of roads, low lying areas, and areas with poor 
  drainage will be possible. If encountering flooded roadways, 
  remember to turn around, don't drown. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flash Flood Watch means that conditions may develop that lead
to flash flooding. Flash flooding is a very dangerous situation.

You should monitor later forecasts and be prepared to take action
should flash flood warnings be issued.

&&

$$

NF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jackson MS
447 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Today and Tonight...Quite an active period of weather is currently
being forecast across the ArkLaMiss from late this afternoon into
Monday morning.  A closed and strengthening mid/upper low currently
seen on satellite over South Central Texas, will eject northeast
across the Ozarks towards the Mid-Mississippi River Valley today
into Monday.  This will cause a surface low to develop over North
Central Texas this afternoon, deepen, and likewise lift northeast
across the Ozarks towards the Mid-Mississippi River Valley through
Monday.  Very deep moisture increasing over the forecast area and
plenty of lift associated with a couple of pieces of energy that'll
begin traverse the region late this afternoon, will result in
increasing chances for storms late today, and continuing overnight
into early Monday morning as the second wave of energy traverses the
forecast area.

Good signals remain in both the global and high-res models that
severe storms will be possible across much of the CWA as early as
late this afternoon.  This potential will then continue overnight
into early Monday morning.  This severe potential is supported by
sufficient instability and steep mid-level lapse rates over the CWA,
increasing deep wind shear (50-70 knots 0-6KM by late tonight),
quite favorable jet dynamics positioned near/over the region, and
the again aforementioned strong forcing that'll pivot through the
region during this time.

Despite being within 24 hours of this severe event, the overall
evolution of how this will all progress exactly comes with some
uncertainty. However, most high-res modes currently indicate that
this will all unfold in two waves.  The first wave will prompt the
development of an MCS near the ArkLaTex this afternoon, which is
currently progged to race east northeast out of the ArkLaTex and
into the Delta region and Northwest Mississippi late this afternoon
and early evening. Some weakening of this complex is expected as it
progresses east northeast across my northern zones, but damaging
wind gusts will be the primary concern through the life of this
complex. Large hail and even a tornado will be possible as well.

As a cold pool boundary is laid out in the vicinity of, or just
north of the Interstate 20 corridor, the second more southern wave
is progged to initiate storms, some supercells, across Central
Louisiana this evening.  These could progress, and/or also develop,
into southwest portions of the ArkLaMiss region by late evening.
It'll be across portions of East Central Louisiana and portions of
Southwest Mississippi where the best conglomeration of severe
weather parameters exists across the ArkLaMiss.  It's also here that
a "Moderate Risk" for severe storms now exists for late this
afternoon into tonight. Across this "Moderate Risk" area, damaging
wind gusts of 60-75 mph, quarter to golf ball size hail, and
tornadoes will be possible.  Some tornadoes could be strong.

As the night progresses, much of this is activity is expected to
congeal into a line of broken storms, although some supercell
development will remain possible (especially south of the I-20
corridor), as it approaches the Interstate 55 corridor after
midnight. Still, damaging wind gusts ranging 60-75 mph, quarter to
golf ball sized hail, and tornadoes will remain possible as it does
so.  This will remain the case as this line shifts further east into
East Central and Southeast Louisiana around sunrise Monday morning.

Another hazard during this timeframe will be that of torrential
rainfall leading to localized flooding.  All of this lies in the
mesoscale details, as the overall synoptic pattern is quite
progressive.  With anomalous 2+ inch precipitable H2O values over
the region, and the before mentioned cold-pool boundary being laid
out west to east along to just north of the Interstate 20 corridor
later today into tonight ahead of the second wave of energy, storms
producing high rainfall rates could train across the same locales.
As a result, some rainfall amounts ranging from 2-4 inches could
fall across some locations in a short amount of time.  A Flash Flood
Watch will be issued for a portion of the CWA beginning later this
afternoon as a result. /19/

Monday through Saturday: Ongoing MCS early Monday morning will be
moving into eastern MS with still some severe potential given
ambient shear and instability, but that window will be closing
toward mid morning. Heavy rainfall will also continue through mid
morning, but flooding threat will be limited due to progressive
nature of convection by this time.

The mid level system responsible for the inclement weather will
shear out rapidly to the northeast Monday night into Tuesday morning
with zonal flow in its wake. This will quickly be replaced by
southwest flow as next system deepens on its way out of the
Intermountain West Tuesday afternoon. Though low level flow will
become southerly in advance of this system, relatively light flow
will be slow to increase adequate moisture over the CWA for much of
a precip event. Ingredients look to come together better further
east. Nevertheless, a few warm advection showers will be possible
late Tuesday night and some scttered thunderstorms mainly in the
east Wednesday.

Despite the relative weakness of the mid week system, its attendant
cold front will make an impact on temperatures by late week. A
gradual cool down will result in maximum temps in the 60s and lower
70s Thursday and Friday with chilly overnight lows in the 40s and
50s. Temps will begin to rebound over the weekend./26/

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF discussion:
VFR flight categories will prevail at all TAF sites overnight, and
through much of the daytime period on Sunday as high clouds
increase from southwest to northeast across the region.
Convection, associated with a strong storm system approaching from
the west, could begin to impede upon the western half of the area
(KGLH & KGWO) as early as between 22-00Z today. Some of that convection
could be severe, with severe storms possible across the remainder
of the area through the overnight hours Sunday and into Monday
morning as the storm system pushes east through the region. Winds
tonight will remain east southeasterly between 3-8 knots. These
will become more south southeasterly between 10-15 knots, with
higher gusts, on Sunday. /19/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Jackson       84  66  80  56 /  28 100  74   7
Meridian      85  65  77  57 /  11  81 100  12
Vicksburg     81  66  80  56 /  57 100  55   7
Hattiesburg   85  67  80  58 /  19  82 100   6
Natchez       81  67  80  58 /  59 100  46   6
Greenville    78  64  76  56 /  60 100  61  10
Greenwood     82  66  77  55 /  28 100  76  10

&&

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday
     morning for MSZ040>044-047>050-053>056-059>065-072-073.

LA...Flash Flood Watch from 3 PM CDT this afternoon through Monday
     morning for LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026.

AR...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
449 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

ARZ074-075-MSZ034>036-031000-
Ashley-Chicot-Washington-Humphreys-Holmes-
449 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Arkansas, central Mississippi, and northwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Late This Afternoon through Early Monday Morning

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Late This Afternoon through Early Monday Morning

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
quarter to golf ball size hail and tornadoes are expected. Heavy
rainfall will also create a limited potential for flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ018-019-025>033-037>039-045-046-051-052-057-058-066-074-031000-
Bolivar-Sunflower-Leflore-Grenada-Carroll-Montgomery-Webster-Clay-
Lowndes-Choctaw-Oktibbeha-Attala-Winston-Noxubee-Neshoba-Kemper-
Newton-Lauderdale-Jasper-Clarke-Jones-Forrest-
449 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central
Mississippi, east central Mississippi, north central Mississippi,
and southeast Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Late This Afternoon through Mid Morning Monday

FLOODING
THREAT...Limited
TIMING...Late This Afternoon througth Mid Morning Monday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
quarter to golf ball size hail and a few tornadoes are possible.
Heavy rainfall will also create a limited potential for flash
flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Afternoon through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ007>009-015-016-025-MSZ040>044-047>050-053>056-059-061>065-072-
031000-
Morehouse-West Carroll-East Carroll-Richland-Madison LA-Tensas-
Issaquena-Sharkey-Yazoo-Madison MS-Leake-Warren-Hinds-Rankin-
Scott-Claiborne-Copiah-Simpson-Smith-Jefferson-Franklin MS-
Lincoln-Lawrence-Jefferson Davis-Covington-Marion-
449 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, central Mississippi, south central Mississippi, and
west central Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Enhanced
TIMING...Late This Afternoon through Mid Morning Monday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Late This Afternoon through Mid Morning Monday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
quarter to golf ball size hail and tornadoes are expected. Heavy
rainfall will also create an elevated potential for flash
flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Afternoon through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

LAZ023-024-026-MSZ060-031000-
Franklin LA-Catahoula-Concordia-Adams-
449 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northeast
Louisiana, and southwest Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Moderate
TIMING...Late This Afternoon through Tonight

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Late This Afternoon through Tonight

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
quarter to golf ball size hail and tornadoes are expected. A few
strong tornadoes are possible. Heavy rainfall will also create an
elevated potential for flash flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Afternoon through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

MSZ073-031000-
Lamar-
449 AM CDT Sun Apr 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Mississippi.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
THREAT...Slight
TIMING...Late This Afternoon through Mid Morning Monday

FLOODING
THREAT...Elevated
TIMING...Late This Afternoon through Mid Morning Monday

Severe thunderstorms capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
quarter to golf ball size hail and a few tornadoes are possible.
Heavy rainfall will also create an elevated potential for flash
flooding.

(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image2.png)
(www.weather.gov/images/jan/graphicast/image3.png)

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday Afternoon through Saturday

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
The activation of storm spotters, HAM radio operators, and
emergency management personnel in support of severe weather
operations may be needed for portions of the region today
through tonight.

26

&&

...HAZARD LEGEND...

*SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS*
High...Significant severe thunderstorms are expected.
Moderate...Severe storms expected with significant
 severe weather possible.
Enhanced...Severe storms expected.
Slight...Severe storms possible.
Marginal...Isolated severe storms possible.

*FLOODING*
Extreme...Confident in significant flooding.
Significant...Significant flooding possible.
Elevated...Confident in flooding.
Limited...Flooding possible.

...USEFUL WEATHER WEB PAGES (URLS)...

NWS JAN Home page...
   www.weather.gov/jan
Stay Aware, Stay Safe NWS JAN Briefing Page...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe
Latest Weather Briefing...
   www.weather.gov/jan/weather_briefing

Find NWS JAN on Facebook...
   www.facebook.com/NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Twitter...
   @NWSJacksonMS
Follow NWS JAN on Youtube...
   www.youtube.com/user/NWSJacksonMiss

...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR SEVERE WEATHER ISSUES...

Storm Prediction Center (SPC)...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/
Meso Analysis...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/Day 1 through 3 Outlooks...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/
Storm Reports...
   www.spc.noaa.gov/climo/online/
...ADDITIONAL URLS FOR FLOODING ISSUES...

Current Watches and Warnings...
   www.weather.gov/jan/safe_HeavyRain

Observed Precipitation Images...
   www.weather.gov/jan/precipmaps

River Forecast Center...
   www.weather.gov/lmrfc/
Significant River Flood Outlook...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/nationalfloodoutlook/index.html
Day 1 through 3 Excessive Rainfall...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/excess_rain.shtml
Excessive Rainfall Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpferd.html
Day 1 through 7 QPF...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/qpf2.shtml
QPF Discussion...
   www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/qpfpfd.html