Special Marine Warning 2, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
610 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 602 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and
become more numerous tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
likely tonight as a strong cold front approaches. Temperatures
will warm into the lower to middle 60s this evening and then turn
colder Wednesday behind the front with chances for snow showers
lingering into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Double barrel sfc cyclone through the plains will consolidate invof
of primary sfc reflection deepening currently across central IA.
Strong sw trough in the process of ejecting out of AZ attm with
upper jet streak kicking out into the TX panhandle with standing mtn
wave clouds noted in se AZ. Downstream warm sector deepening rapidly
and no doubt aided by thinning high clouds/strong low level warm
advection back west across MO/wrn IL/se IA. Given upticking theta-e
reservoir here and escalating mass flux on nose of LLJ through I-80
in central IL...expect convection will initiate here twd 21Z and
rapidly track ne...expand east along warm advection wing through
wrn/nrn zones with a risk of large hail.

Primary potential severe event expected to unfold overnight as
potent cyclone shifts ne into wrn lower MI by midnight. Expect
multiple storm clusters will develop within moisture rich and
unstable theta-e ridge across the area. Breath of background
synoptic based flow certainly warrants higher bound severe probs esp
with swd extent with wind damage the greatest threat. However QLCS
tornado processes bear watching particularly south of the US24
corridor either side of midnight as 0-1KM shear goes off chart.
Composite outflow should push much if not all precip out of the area
by daybreak although concede a small risk of shra still possible Wed
am with actual fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Attention this period begins with secondary clipper digging through
the srn lakes late Thu. Fairly pronounced low level warm advection
wing ahead of this system suggests sct shsn by aftn through evening
and some minimal snow accums far nw Thu evening.

Otherwise flow aloft flattens quickly through the weekend as temps
snap back to above normal as strong warm advection overspreads the
area beginning Sat. Will keep with prior warmer hedged temps Sat-Mon
as yet another vigorous cyclone develops west through the nrn plains
with rain chcs increasing along swd trailing cold front Mon-Mon
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 602 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Several mid and upper level speed maxima continue to eject along
the base of the trof and along the cold front over il/ia/wi.
Convection will persist in the warm sector ahead of the front
extending from cemtral il into SW Lower MI through 04Z.

Focus then turns to the cold front as the mid level and upper
level trof begin to phase with a well organized squall line to
affect much of the forecast area through 07/09Z. Expect that there
will be LLWS as the front sweeps through.

Widespread IFR and LIFR conditions to prevail through the period.

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Gulf moisture surging nne into the Midwest this aftn was resulting
in lowering ceilings and vsbys in stratus/-dz/-ra/br. IFR
conditions should persist into early this eve before nrn IN gets
more firmly entrenched in the warm sector later this eve when
conditions should improve to vfr. However, a couple rounds of
TSRA also expected this eve and overnight with hail and strong
gusty winds. Ceilings should lower behind the front Wed,
especially at SBN as winds veer to nwly.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lewis
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Lewis

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
344 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

INZ004>009-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-011000-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Berrien-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
344 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Late this afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and become more
numerous tonight. Some storms may be severe with a threat for large
hail early this evening and damaging winds overnight. Locally heavy
rainfall may lead to minor flooding as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-011000-
La Porte-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-
Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-
Blackford-Jay-
344 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 /244 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and become more
numerous tonight. Some storms will be severe with a threat for large
hail early this evening and damaging winds overnight, especially
along and south of Route 30. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to
minor flooding as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed tonight.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-011000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
344 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and become more numerous
this evening. Some of the storms this evening may produce storm
force wind gusts and large hail.

Conditions will be hazardous to small craft tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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