Alert archive / Michigan / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2017

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 18, NWS Northern Indiana

February 28, 2017Hillsdale County, Michigan

NWS Northern Indiana issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Feb 28, 2017, 11:22 PM EST for Hillsdale County, Michigan. It was in force for 37 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 28, 2017, 11:22 PM EST (04:22 UTC)
Expired: Feb 28, 2017, 11:59 PM EST
In force: 37 min
Issued by: NWS Northern Indiana
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.0 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Hillsdale County, MI

The radar

The Northern Indiana radar (KIWX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:22 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Feb 28, 7:37 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 4.4 hours before the alert went out and 136 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -323 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 464 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 60 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 384 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 383 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

870 
WUUS53 KIWX 010422
SVRIWX
MIC059-010515-
/O.NEW.KIWX.SV.W.0018.170301T0422Z-170301T0515Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Warning
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1122 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

The National Weather Service in Northern Indiana  has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Warning for...
  Southern Hillsdale County in southeastern Michigan...

* Until 1215 AM EST

* At 1122 PM EST, a severe thunderstorm was located near Reading, or
  11 miles south of Hillsdale, moving east at 60 mph.

  HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

  IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage 
           to roofs, siding, and trees. 

* Locations impacted include...
  Hillsdale, Hudson, Reading, Cambria, Pittsford, Ransom, Camden,
  Montgomery, Bear Lake, Prattville, Lake Wilson, Frontier, Shadyside
  and Osseo.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4176 8436 4176 8480 4184 8482 4197 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0422Z 254DEG 51KT 4176 8468 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MARSILI

1 follow-up statement

333 
WWUS53 KIWX 010459
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1159 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

MIC059-010509-
/O.CAN.KIWX.SV.W.0018.000000T0000Z-170301T0515Z/
Hillsdale MI-
1159 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHERN HILLSDALE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 400 AM EST for
southeastern Michigan.

LAT...LON 4176 8436 4176 8480 4184 8482 4197 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 254DEG 51KT 4190 8400 

$$

MARSILI

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Northern Indiana wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Feb 28, 6:10 PM EST, 5 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 28, 6:10 PM EST, 5 hours 12 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
610 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 602 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Showers and thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and
become more numerous tonight. Strong to severe thunderstorms are
likely tonight as a strong cold front approaches. Temperatures
will warm into the lower to middle 60s this evening and then turn
colder Wednesday behind the front with chances for snow showers
lingering into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Tonight and Wednesday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Double barrel sfc cyclone through the plains will consolidate invof
of primary sfc reflection deepening currently across central IA.
Strong sw trough in the process of ejecting out of AZ attm with
upper jet streak kicking out into the TX panhandle with standing mtn
wave clouds noted in se AZ. Downstream warm sector deepening rapidly
and no doubt aided by thinning high clouds/strong low level warm
advection back west across MO/wrn IL/se IA. Given upticking theta-e
reservoir here and escalating mass flux on nose of LLJ through I-80
in central IL...expect convection will initiate here twd 21Z and
rapidly track ne...expand east along warm advection wing through
wrn/nrn zones with a risk of large hail.

Primary potential severe event expected to unfold overnight as
potent cyclone shifts ne into wrn lower MI by midnight. Expect
multiple storm clusters will develop within moisture rich and
unstable theta-e ridge across the area. Breath of background
synoptic based flow certainly warrants higher bound severe probs esp
with swd extent with wind damage the greatest threat. However QLCS
tornado processes bear watching particularly south of the US24
corridor either side of midnight as 0-1KM shear goes off chart.
Composite outflow should push much if not all precip out of the area
by daybreak although concede a small risk of shra still possible Wed
am with actual fropa.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Attention this period begins with secondary clipper digging through
the srn lakes late Thu. Fairly pronounced low level warm advection
wing ahead of this system suggests sct shsn by aftn through evening
and some minimal snow accums far nw Thu evening.

Otherwise flow aloft flattens quickly through the weekend as temps
snap back to above normal as strong warm advection overspreads the
area beginning Sat. Will keep with prior warmer hedged temps Sat-Mon
as yet another vigorous cyclone develops west through the nrn plains
with rain chcs increasing along swd trailing cold front Mon-Mon
night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued at 602 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Several mid and upper level speed maxima continue to eject along
the base of the trof and along the cold front over il/ia/wi.
Convection will persist in the warm sector ahead of the front
extending from cemtral il into SW Lower MI through 04Z.

Focus then turns to the cold front as the mid level and upper
level trof begin to phase with a well organized squall line to
affect much of the forecast area through 07/09Z. Expect that there
will be LLWS as the front sweeps through.

Widespread IFR and LIFR conditions to prevail through the period.

(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

Gulf moisture surging nne into the Midwest this aftn was resulting
in lowering ceilings and vsbys in stratus/-dz/-ra/br. IFR
conditions should persist into early this eve before nrn IN gets
more firmly entrenched in the warm sector later this eve when
conditions should improve to vfr. However, a couple rounds of
TSRA also expected this eve and overnight with hail and strong
gusty winds. Ceilings should lower behind the front Wed,
especially at SBN as winds veer to nwly.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for LMZ043-046.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lewis
SHORT TERM...T
LONG TERM...T
AVIATION...Lewis

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

Follow us on Facebook...Twitter...and YouTube at:
www.facebook.com/NWSNorthernIndiana
www.twitter.com/nwsiwx
www.youtube.com/NWSNorthernIndiana

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 28, 3:44 PM EST, 7 hours 38 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
344 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

INZ004>009-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-024-025-011000-
St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Berrien-Cass MI-
St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
344 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Late this afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and become more
numerous tonight. Some storms may be severe with a threat for large
hail early this evening and damaging winds overnight. Locally heavy
rainfall may lead to minor flooding as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed tonight.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ003-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-011000-
La Porte-Starke-Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-
Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-
Blackford-Jay-
344 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017 /244 PM CST Tue Feb 28 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and become more
numerous tonight. Some storms will be severe with a threat for large
hail early this evening and damaging winds overnight, especially
along and south of Route 30. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to
minor flooding as well.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed tonight.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-011000-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
344 PM EST Tue Feb 28 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and Tonight

Thunderstorms will develop late this afternoon and become more numerous
this evening. Some of the storms this evening may produce storm
force wind gusts and large hail.

Conditions will be hazardous to small craft tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Conditions hazardous to small craft are expected Wednesday into
Thursday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

In the hours before

Local storm report, Feb 28, 10:33 PM EST, 49 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1033 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             MIDDLEBURY              41.68N 85.71W
02/28/2017  U0.75 INCH       ELKHART            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, Feb 28, 10:38 PM EST, 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1038 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0918 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E SHAVEHEAD LAKE      41.85N 85.80W
02/28/2017                   CASS               MI   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGE TREE DOWNED ACROSS ROAD.

&&

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, Feb 28, 10:52 PM EST, 30 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1052 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     HAIL             2 WNW SHIPSHEWANA       41.69N 85.60W
02/28/2017  E1.00 INCH       LAGRANGE           IN   PUBLIC

            .

&&

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
IRIS SYSTEM

Special weather statement, Feb 28, 11:05 PM EST, 17 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1105 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

MIZ080-081-010430-
Branch-Hillsdale-
1105 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN BRANCH AND
HILLSDALE COUNTIES...

At 1104 PM EST, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Brooklyn to near Hillsdale to near
Fremont. Movement was east at 50 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hillsdale, Hudson, Jonesville, Reading, Long Lake, Jerome, Somerset,
Cambria, Pittsford, Kinderhook, Moscow, California, Ransom, North
Adams, Montgomery, Bear Lake, Allen, Prattville, Lake Wilson and
Shadyside.

This includes INTERSTATE 69 IN MICHIGAN between MILE MARKERs 1 and 5.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4177 8436 4176 8514 4198 8474 4207 8463
      4207 8436
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 262DEG 44KT 4208 8422 4193 8452 4178 8491

MARSILI

Local storm report, Feb 28, 11:19 PM EST, 3 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1119 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             2 NNE ANGOLA            41.67N 84.98W
02/28/2017  U0.75 INCH       STEUBEN            IN   EMERGENCY MNGR

            .

&&

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
IRIS SYSTEM

Local storm report, Feb 28, 11:22 PM EST, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
1122 PM EST TUE FEB 28 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1100 PM     HAIL             2 NNE ANGOLA            41.67N 84.98W
02/28/2017  U0.88 INCH       STEUBEN            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS NORTHERN INDIANA
IRIS SYSTEM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Northern Indiana issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Feb 28, 7:15 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	IWX	Hillsdale	30 min
Feb 28, 8:06 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Berrien, Cass	54 min
Feb 28, 8:52 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Berrien, Cass, Saint Joseph	53 min
Feb 28, 9:40 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Branch, Hillsdale, Saint Joseph	50 min
Feb 28, 9:54 PM EST	Tornado Warning	IWX	Branch, Hillsdale	36 min
Feb 28, 9:59 PM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Cass, Saint Joseph	46 min
Feb 28, 10:01 PM EST	Areal Flood Advisory	IWX	Berrien, Cass	6 hr
Feb 28, 10:17 PM EST	Flash Flood Warning	IWX	Cass, Saint Joseph	6 hr
Feb 28, 11:05 PM EST	Special Weather Statement	IWX	Hillsdale	25 min
Feb 28, 11:12 PM EST	Tornado Warning	IWX	Hillsdale	31 min
Mar 1, 12:40 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Berrien, Cass	65 min
Mar 1, 1:30 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Saint Joseph	45 min
Mar 1, 1:35 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Branch, Cass, Saint Joseph	40 min
Mar 1, 2:21 AM EST	Special Weather Statement	IWX	Hillsdale	39 min
Mar 1, 2:29 AM EST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	IWX	Hillsdale	61 min
Mar 1, 10:54 AM EST	Wind Advisory	IWX	Hillsdale	11 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Michigan, 2017 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.