Special Marine Warning 13, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
646 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Primarily dry conditions are expected during the day today but a few
showers and storms are possible along and north of the toll road. It
will also be hot and humid with heat indices climbing into the upper
90s for some locations. Chances for storms will increase this
evening and overnight. A few of these storms could produce isolated
damaging winds and heavy rain. The best chance for severe weather
and heavy rain will arrive on Thursday though as a cold front swings
through the region. Damaging winds...heavy rain...and flooding are
possible. Cooler and drier conditions are anticipated for the end of
the week and early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Yet another round of strengthening LLJ, isentropic ascent and
moisture convergence underway this morning in response to moderate
amplitude shortwave approaching the northern Lakes. A few strong
storms with heavy rain have developed along warm front surging north
but this activity should exit our CWA and dissipate within the next
few hours. Story for the rest of the day will be one of heat and
humidity but largely dry conditions. Forecast soundings show around
200 J/kg MLCIN in strong 850-700mb capping inversion. With nose of
LLJ and best moisture convergence over MI, suspect most of our CWA
will remain dry through the day. The exception may be in our N/NW
zones where cap is a little weaker and residual outflow boundaries
could touch off some SCT convection. Latest HRRR also shows some
convection clipping our NW from wave currently moving into
Wisconsin. Enough for some low chance PoPs but confidence in
additional QPF in our counties today is much too low for any kind of
watch issuance. If convection does manage to develop in our north
during peak afternoon heating, there is a chance for severe weather
given 2000+ J/kg of SBCAPE and decent wind/shear profiles. Threat is
low for today period though. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s
in our western zones this afternoon. Not quite high enough for an
advisory but certainly something to note.

Slightly better chances for rain and possibly severe weather arrive
overnight. Models indicate potential for some subtle height falls
with convective shortwave that may be enough to weaken cap and touch
off convection in our N/NW around 00-06Z. Hi-res CAM's split on this
with underlying forcing very precarious and dependent on evolution
of convection today. At this point, prefer to lean on the NAM and
NMM solutions which indicate a later arrival in our CWA. However,
held onto some mid-range PoPs during the evening given other
solutions. Once again, if we manage to get convection early in the
evening, there is a severe threat given ample low level moisture and
decent lapse rates. Deep layer shear is on the marginal side but 30+
kts in the lower levels could yield a few damaging wind gusts with
more sustained updrafts. Chances for severe weather will diminish
with later arrival, but not zero. Think best chances for rain will
arrive after 06Z into Thursday morning as more pronounced shortwave
currently over Colorado arrives and convergent boundary slowly
approaches. Some heavy rain possible with this activity especially
in our northern CWA but confidence is too low for watch issuance
this far out.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Cold front slowly crosses our CWA during the day Thursday. Think
this may be our best chance for severe weather and heavy rain.
Moisture-rich airmass remains with surface dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s and incredible PW values nearing 2.2 inches. Midlevel temps
are a little warm but lapse rates sufficient to generate around 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE (mainly in our S/SW CWA) given abundant moisture.
Good forcing noted as well with broad cyclonic anomaly enveloping
the Great Lakes. This not only enhances 1000-850mb convergence along
trailing broad cold front but also leads to a little better westerly
midlevel flow and 0-6km bulk shear values of 30+ kts. Will have to
watch for potential of morning convection to disrupt late-day severe
chances but should be at least some brief clearing to allow
instability to build. As we saw on Monday, does not take much
diabatic heating to support moderate instability given tremendous
low level moisture. Damaging winds will be the main severe threat
with at least semi-organized clusters expected. Some hail threat as
well but will depend on adequate instability density that may be
tough to attain given marginal lapse rates. Tornado threat is also
not zero but 0-1km shear and associated hodographs are not as
supportive as what we saw on Monday. Certainly something to watch
though given moisture-laden boundary layer/low LCL potential. Heavy
rain/flooding will likely be biggest concern though with very high
PW values, deep warm cloud layer (12-13 kft) supporting efficient
rainfall processes, and low MBE velocities generating at least some
training/backbuilding potential. With recent heavy rain in many
areas, flooding will be possible.

Fortunately the rest of the long term period is quiet. Primarily
subsident NW flow expected. Only exception is decent jet streak/
shortwave carving out over the Great Lakes late Sat into Sun. Best
moisture is largely scoured out but models do indicate a decent
theta-e ridge peeling off Northern Plains that could fuel some
showers/storms during this time. No severe concerns at this point
but a low chance for a few storms, primarily during the day
Sunday. Otherwise dry with seasonably cool and much less humid
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday Morning)
Issued at 645 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Tstms along/ahead of warm front were north-east of the terminals
attm with vfr conditions across nrn IN. This should continue through
the day as the warm front continues lifting ne. SW winds
will increase to 15-25kt with diurnal heating/mixing today. Cdfnt
will sag south tonight across MI likely causing tstms to
overspread nrn IN from the north overnight.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...JT

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

INZ003>009-012>016-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-130945-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 /445 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. Isolated gusty
winds and localized heavy rain are possible.

Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Severe weather
is possible with damaging winds...heavy rain...and flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ015-016-024-025-130945-
Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-
Grant-Blackford-Jay-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible tonight. Severe weather is not expected at
this time.

Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Severe weather
is possible with damaging winds...heavy rain...and flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today but will likely be needed
tomorrow.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-130945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. Gusty winds
are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Strong to severe
storms are possible.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
539 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

MIZ077-121045-
Berrien-
539 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN BERRIEN
COUNTY...

At 538 AM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Lake Michigan Beach to 13 miles
northwest of Shorewood-Tower Hill. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph are possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Fair Plain, Benton Heights, Watervliet,
Coloma, Stevensville, Paw Paw Lake, Lake Michigan Beach, Sodus,
Riverside, Baroda, Shoreham, Eau Claire, Spinks Corners and Millburg.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 196 between mile markers 0 and 7.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 18 and 42.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4202 8622 4196 8633 4196 8668 4213 8658
      4211 8649 4224 8636 4224 8622
TIME...MOT...LOC 0938Z 273DEG 25KT 4221 8645 4200 8684

NWS