Severe Thunderstorm Warning 106, NWS Northern Indiana

394 
WWUS53 KIWX 121810
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
210 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

INC131-121819-
/O.CAN.KIWX.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-170712T1830Z/
Pulaski IN-
210 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHWESTERN PULASKI COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 4087 8678 4091 8671 4091 8659 4087 8638
      4069 8648 4069 8653 4074 8653 4074 8675
      4073 8676 4072 8675 4071 8676 4069 8675
      4068 8676 4068 8674 4066 8677 4074 8688
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 301DEG 24KT 4079 8671 

$$

INC017-181-121830-
/O.CON.KIWX.SV.W.0106.000000T0000Z-170712T1830Z/
White IN-Cass IN-
210 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 230 PM EDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN WHITE AND NORTHWESTERN CASS COUNTIES...

At 209 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Monticello,
moving southeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Royal Center, Reynolds, Burnettsville, Headlee, Golden
Hill, Indiana Beach, Norway, Idaville, Sitka, Cedar Point, Lucerne,
Bell Center, Buffalo and Lake Cicott.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 8678 4091 8671 4091 8659 4087 8638
      4069 8648 4069 8653 4074 8653 4074 8675
      4073 8676 4072 8675 4071 8676 4069 8675
      4068 8676 4068 8674 4066 8677 4074 8688
TIME...MOT...LOC 1809Z 301DEG 24KT 4079 8671 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MCS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
115 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Primarily dry conditions are expected during the day today but a few
showers and storms are possible along and north of the toll road. It
will also be hot and humid with heat indices climbing into the upper
90s for some locations. Chances for storms will increase this
evening and overnight. A few of these storms could produce isolated
damaging winds and heavy rain. The best chance for severe weather
and heavy rain will arrive on Thursday though as a cold front swings
through the region. Damaging winds...heavy rain...and flooding are
possible. Cooler and drier conditions are anticipated for the end of
the week and early next week.

&&

.UPDATE...(This Afternoon)
Issued at 1012 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Consolidation of outflow associated with dual lines of convection
through se WI/ne IL taking place this morning. Lead extent of
downstream outflow into wrn lower MI attm yet will be overtaken by
upstream outflow associated with potent MCV progressing through se
WI. Net result looks quite favorable for composite boundary to sag
sewd across lake MI near term and initiate new convection and/or
excite existing festering convection over sw MI by early aftn. Given
rapidly destabilization ongoing to the south of these storms and
rather robust low level warm advection in place...growing
severe/flood threat short term this aftn over nrn IN/srn MI.

Will make significant changes to prior grids this aftn to account
for above thinking with updates forthcoming later this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Yet another round of strengthening LLJ, isentropic ascent and
moisture convergence underway this morning in response to moderate
amplitude shortwave approaching the northern Lakes. A few strong
storms with heavy rain have developed along warm front surging north
but this activity should exit our CWA and dissipate within the next
few hours. Story for the rest of the day will be one of heat and
humidity but largely dry conditions. Forecast soundings show around
200 J/kg MLCIN in strong 850-700mb capping inversion. With nose of
LLJ and best moisture convergence over MI, suspect most of our CWA
will remain dry through the day. The exception may be in our N/NW
zones where cap is a little weaker and residual outflow boundaries
could touch off some SCT convection. Latest HRRR also shows some
convection clipping our NW from wave currently moving into
Wisconsin. Enough for some low chance PoPs but confidence in
additional QPF in our counties today is much too low for any kind of
watch issuance. If convection does manage to develop in our north
during peak afternoon heating, there is a chance for severe weather
given 2000+ J/kg of SBCAPE and decent wind/shear profiles. Threat is
low for today period though. Heat indices will be in the upper 90s
in our western zones this afternoon. Not quite high enough for an
advisory but certainly something to note.

Slightly better chances for rain and possibly severe weather arrive
overnight. Models indicate potential for some subtle height falls
with convective shortwave that may be enough to weaken cap and touch
off convection in our N/NW around 00-06Z. Hi-res CAM's split on this
with underlying forcing very precarious and dependent on evolution
of convection today. At this point, prefer to lean on the NAM and
NMM solutions which indicate a later arrival in our CWA. However,
held onto some mid-range PoPs during the evening given other
solutions. Once again, if we manage to get convection early in the
evening, there is a severe threat given ample low level moisture and
decent lapse rates. Deep layer shear is on the marginal side but 30+
kts in the lower levels could yield a few damaging wind gusts with
more sustained updrafts. Chances for severe weather will diminish
with later arrival, but not zero. Think best chances for rain will
arrive after 06Z into Thursday morning as more pronounced shortwave
currently over Colorado arrives and convergent boundary slowly
approaches. Some heavy rain possible with this activity especially
in our northern CWA but confidence is too low for watch issuance
this far out.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Cold front slowly crosses our CWA during the day Thursday. Think
this may be our best chance for severe weather and heavy rain.
Moisture-rich airmass remains with surface dewpoints in the low to
mid 70s and incredible PW values nearing 2.2 inches. Midlevel temps
are a little warm but lapse rates sufficient to generate around 2000
J/kg of MLCAPE (mainly in our S/SW CWA) given abundant moisture.
Good forcing noted as well with broad cyclonic anomaly enveloping
the Great Lakes. This not only enhances 1000-850mb convergence along
trailing broad cold front but also leads to a little better westerly
midlevel flow and 0-6km bulk shear values of 30+ kts. Will have to
watch for potential of morning convection to disrupt late-day severe
chances but should be at least some brief clearing to allow
instability to build. As we saw on Monday, does not take much
diabatic heating to support moderate instability given tremendous
low level moisture. Damaging winds will be the main severe threat
with at least semi-organized clusters expected. Some hail threat as
well but will depend on adequate instability density that may be
tough to attain given marginal lapse rates. Tornado threat is also
not zero but 0-1km shear and associated hodographs are not as
supportive as what we saw on Monday. Certainly something to watch
though given moisture-laden boundary layer/low LCL potential. Heavy
rain/flooding will likely be biggest concern though with very high
PW values, deep warm cloud layer (12-13 kft) supporting efficient
rainfall processes, and low MBE velocities generating at least some
training/backbuilding potential. With recent heavy rain in many
areas, flooding will be possible.

Fortunately the rest of the long term period is quiet. Primarily
subsident NW flow expected. Only exception is decent jet streak/
shortwave carving out over the Great Lakes late Sat into Sun. Best
moisture is largely scoured out but models do indicate a decent
theta-e ridge peeling off Northern Plains that could fuel some
showers/storms during this time. No severe concerns at this point
but a low chance for a few storms, primarily during the day
Sunday. Otherwise dry with seasonably cool and much less humid
conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday Afternoon)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

Weakening showers/storms near composite outflow boundary will
continue to impact KSBN through 19/20Z. Mainly VFR conditions are
expected, though some brief restrictions possible with scattered
precipitation in the area. This outflow should stall out between
KFWA/KSBN by mid-late afternoon with scattered thunderstorms
possible along it as MLCIN erodes. Point chances at the terminals
remain too low for a VCTS mention mid afternoon through early
evening, though this will need to monitored. Upstream upper wave
and surge of deeper moisture then brings a pretty good chance for
widespread convection overnight into early Thursday at both
KFWA/KSBN. Restrictions into IFR and heavy rainfall expected in
the area, though exact timing and placement remains somewhat
uncertain at this forecast range.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ003>009-012-014-016>018.

MI...Flood Watch through late tonight for MIZ077>081.

OH...Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ001-002-004-005-015-016-
     024-025.

LM...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...T
SYNOPSIS...AGD
SHORT TERM...AGD
LONG TERM...AGD
AVIATION...Steinwedel

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

INZ003>009-012>016-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-130945-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Berrien-Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-
Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-Henry-
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017 /445 AM CDT Wed Jul 12 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. Isolated gusty
winds and localized heavy rain are possible.

Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Severe weather
is possible with damaging winds...heavy rain...and flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

INZ017-018-020-022>027-032>034-OHZ015-016-024-025-130945-
Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-
Grant-Blackford-Jay-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern Indiana
and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Thunderstorms are possible tonight. Severe weather is not expected at
this time.

Heat indices will be in the mid to upper 90s today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Severe weather
is possible with damaging winds...heavy rain...and flooding.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today but will likely be needed
tomorrow.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-130945-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
545 AM EDT Wed Jul 12 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms today and tonight. Gusty winds
are possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Additional thunderstorms are expected on Thursday. Strong to severe
storms are possible.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1114 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

INZ003-004-MIZ077-078-121545-
La Porte-St. Joseph-Berrien-Cass-
1114 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN ST.
JOSEPH...NORTHERN LA PORTE...NORTHWESTERN CASS AND BERRIEN
COUNTIES...

At 1112 AM EDT/1012 AM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms
were located along a line extending from 16 miles northwest of Lake
Michigan Beach to 15 miles northwest of Beverly Shores to La Grange.
Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms. Torrential rainfall is expected with these storms with some
locations seeing 1 to 2 inches of rain in a short period of time.

Locations impacted include...
Michigan City, La Porte, Benton Harbor, St. Joseph, Buchanan, Trail
Creek, Benton Heights, Fair Plain, Bridgman, New Buffalo, New
Carlisle, Berrien Springs, Watervliet, Three Oaks, Coloma, Long
Beach, Stevensville, Pottawattamie Park, Shorewood-Tower Hill and Paw
Paw Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 196 between mile markers 0 and 7.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 45 and 67.
 Interstate 94 in Indiana between mile markers 33 and 45.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 0 and 42.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4207 8622 4207 8608 4165 8653 4161 8693
      4171 8693 4173 8691 4178 8695 4194 8670
      4213 8659 4212 8649 4224 8636 4224 8623
TIME...MOT...LOC 1512Z 294DEG 39KT 4238 8662 4187 8716 4179 8786

FISHER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
1151 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

INZ003-004-014-MIZ077-078-121630-
La Porte-St. Joseph-Marshall-Berrien-Cass-
1151 AM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT ST. JOSEPH...
NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...LA PORTE...CASS AND BERRIEN COUNTIES...

At 1151 AM EDT/1051 AM CDT/, radar indicated strong thunderstorms
were located along a line extending from Fair Plain to near
Westville. Movement was southeast at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph are possible with these storms.

These storms will be near...
  La Porte, Fair Plain and Benton Heights around 1155 AM EDT.
  Berrien Springs and Kingsford Heights around 1205 PM EDT.
  Niles and Dowagiac around 1215 PM EDT.
  Walkerton and Koontz Lake around 1220 PM EDT.
  Cassopolis and Edwardsburg around 1225 PM EDT.

Other locations impacted by these storms include Dewey Lake,
Waterford, Harbert, Bertrand, Fish Lake, Crumstown, Tyner, Lakeside
In Berrien County, Millburg and Diamond Lake.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 196 between mile markers 0 and 1.
 Interstate 80 in Indiana between mile markers 38 and 85.
 Interstate 94 in Indiana between mile markers 37 and 45.
 Interstate 94 in Michigan between mile markers 0 and 35.

LAT...LON 4213 8622 4207 8622 4207 8582 4138 8638
      4141 8647 4143 8647 4143 8654 4155 8693
      4158 8693 4212 8651 4212 8649 4216 8644
TIME...MOT...LOC 1551Z 298DEG 39KT 4209 8645 4159 8687

JBALL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
133 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

INZ013-020-121800-
White-Pulaski-
133 PM EDT WED JUL 12 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN WHITE AND SOUTHWESTERN
PULASKI COUNTIES...

At 133 PM EDT/1233 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located near
Hanging Grove, moving southeast at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Monticello, Monon, Francesville, Pulaski, Reynolds, Smithson,
Lakeside In Pulaski County, Headlee, Lee, Golden Hill, Indiana Beach,
Norway, Idaville, Sitka, Cedar Point, Bell Center, Buffalo and Star
City.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4084 8709 4084 8699 4091 8699 4091 8693
      4101 8693 4107 8688 4097 8657 4076 8662
      4074 8665 4074 8675 4073 8676 4072 8675
      4071 8676 4069 8675 4068 8676 4068 8674
      4066 8676 4066 8678 4080 8710
TIME...MOT...LOC 1733Z 310DEG 28KT 4093 8692

MCS