Dense Fog Advisory 13, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
636 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

An upper level low will bring chances for scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms today. Highs will reach the mid to upper
70s. Dry conditions are expected tonight into Wednesday with lows
in the upper 50s tonight and highs in the upper 70s tomorrow.
Areas of fog will be possible later tonight. A cold front then
brings a low chance for showers on Thursday, followed by cooler
and drier conditions Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and Tonight)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

Leftover mid level circulation/small scale vort max will continue
to lift slowly northeast into ne IN/nw OH this morning with
scattered showers and perhaps a few rumbles of thunder possible.
Fog may become a concern early this morning across far ne IN/sc
Lower MI/far nw OH, though gradient and cloud cover may be enough
to preclude a more impactful fog threat.

The larger scale upper low will open east over the local area by
this afternoon. There should be enough surface heating under this
cool pocket aloft to generate spotty showers/iso thunder near any
weak boundaries, best chances southeast of US 24 near lingering
low level convergent axis. The environment may become conducive
for funnel clouds and small hail with stronger cells if more
appreciable boundary layer heating is realized. Temperatures will
remain on the cool side for this time of year otherwise with highs
generally into the mid 70s.

The upper wave and weak sfc trough will exit to the east tonight
leaving dry conditions. Light winds and little in the way of low
level drying may promote some fog development overnight as skies
clear.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 328 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

Weak warm advection in advance of a cold front and ample sunshine
should lead to a dry and warmer Wednesday. This cold front drops
through from north to south on Thursday trailing a seasonably strong
shortwave tracking se into the Eastern Great Lakes/Northeast. At
this point this front appears moisture starved with little in the
way of mid-upper level support. Thus, expect any shower activity to
be light and scattered at best (20-30% PoPs) along it.

Canadian high pressure will build into the Great Lakes by Thursday
night and Friday resulting in dry and cooler conditions. Some weak
troughing into the Central US looking more likely to lift the
remnants of Harvey into the Ohio Valley by later Friday
night/Saturday. This could bring clouds and a period of rain to
areas mainly southeast of US 24, though incoming mid-upper jet
energy likely shunts deeper moisture off to the east-southeast
resulting in only low 20-30% type PoPs at this fcst range. Mainly
dry west-northwest flow regime then takes shape Sunday into Monday
with temperatures near to slightly below normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday Morning)
Issued at 630 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

Weak MCV rotating near KFWA producing a few shra and possibly a
tsra next few hours. IFR/LIFR cigs and vis near and northeast of
KFWA this morning. Will have to monitor this up to issuance time
to see if lower cigs and vis can work southwest into terminal.
light rain and clouds with MCV may be enough to hold off much
lower conditions. KSBN just seeing some MVFR vis restrictions and
with cloud cover this may be as far as they sink. Isolated tsra
and widely scattered shra this afternoon but too uncertain for
inclusion in tafs. IFR/LIFR conditions possible again late tonight
especially at KFWA with fog/stratus formation.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Lashley

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
421 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-300830-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
421 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017 /321 AM CDT Tue Aug 29 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Areas of fog may create hazardous travel conditions early this
morning, mainly north of US 30. Fog may redevelop later tonight.

There is a slight chance for thunderstorms today. Severe
thunderstorms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-300830-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
421 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a slight chance for a thunderstorm this evening. Strong to
severe storms are not expected.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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