Areal Flood Warning 9, NWS Northern Indiana

Area Forecast Discussion...Correction
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Hot and humid conditions will persist through Thursday with highs
generally in the upper 80s to near 90 and lows near 70. This
humidity may also help create scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day near a weak frontal boundary, best chances during the
afternoon and early evening hours. By the weekend, temperatures
will be closer to normal, but still feature periodic chances for
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Remaining hot/humid with periodic shower/storm chances...

Widely scattered pulse showers/storms will continue across nrn
IN/nw OH/sc Lower MI into the late afternoon and early
evening...in an area of weak low level convergence (marine
enhanced) and ample boundary layer moisture/CAPE. Lacking deep
layer forcing/shear under an upper ridge axis should limit
coverage/intensity, though cannot rule out isolated 40-60 mph wind
gusts, hail, and locally heavy rain with stronger cores.

Diurnally driven stabilizing effects will support a trend toward
mainly dry conditions under the upper ridge axis tonight into
Wednesday morning. However, did hold onto at least some low PoPs
during this time given lingering MUCAPE with 10-20 knots of low
level southwest flow into weak convergence zone (expected to
reorient more nw to se across sw Lower MI/nrn IN).

The best signal for thunderstorm development continues to be later
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the upper ridge axis shifts off
to the east and a lead/convectively aided shortwave tracks east
into this unstable environment/lingering subtle frontal zone.
Locally heavy rain will continue to be the main threat given slow
storm movement and high moisture content. A lesser threat with be
isolated strong/severe storms with slight uptick in deep layer
shear to near 20 knots.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

A more active/quasi-zonal northern stream flow regime will take hold
on the region late this week into the weekend...with the result
being a trend toward slightly cooler (closer to normal) temps and
periodic chances for showers/storms as several impulses propagate
through. Confidence in timing of higher PoPs offered by the 12z
model consensus during these periods remains low given reliance on
waves (timing) to take advantage of building heat/instability
each day. Cooler/drier conditions are then expected into early
next week as upper troughing becomes better established forcing
instability axis well south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Plenty of instability and temps near convective initiation...all
it took was convective outflow to trigger. Outflow swept southward
across Lake MI and this has triggered isold convection at KSBN.
Likewise convection is kicking off throughout the region. Shear is
weak and most storms will quickly develop vertically before
collapsing. This is also favorable to outflow boundary formation
and subsequent triggering.

Have kept VFR conditions in the TAFs and expect to see a break in
the convection after 02Z. Another round of convection will form
overnight / early Wednesday morning. With the moisture from the
showers and abundant BL moisture...cannot rule out patchy fog
overnight but not extensive or deep enough to include in the
individual TAF sites.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Lewis

Visit us at www.weather.gov/iwx

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
457 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-141030-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
457 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 /357 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected, especially this afternoon and
evening. A few storms may have small hail and localized wind gusts to
50 mph.

Maximum afternoon heat index values will reach into the middle 90s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday. A few storms late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night could be strong to severe with large
hail and damaging wind gusts possible.

There are also chances for thunderstorms Thursday, Friday afternoon
and again on Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-141030-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
457 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms, primarily this afternoon and
evening. A few storms could have wind gusts to 30 knots and locally
higher waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday. A few storms late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night could be strong to severe with large
hail and wind gusts to 50 knots possible.

There are also chances for thunderstorms Thursday, Friday afternoon
and again on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

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