Severe Thunderstorm Warning 72, NWS Northern Indiana

115 
WWUS53 KIWX 131935
SVSIWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
335 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

INC087-131944-
/O.CAN.KIWX.SV.W.0072.000000T0000Z-170613T2015Z/
Lagrange IN-
335 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL LAGRANGE COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has weakened. 
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled. Locally heavy rain and 
small hail remain possible with this thunderstorm as it drifts 
slowly northeast. 

LAT...LON 4157 8520 4157 8552 4174 8554 4176 8520
TIME...MOT...LOC 1933Z 261DEG 12KT 4168 8539 

$$

FISHER

Area Forecast Discussion...Correction
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
303 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Hot and humid conditions will persist through Thursday with highs
generally in the upper 80s to near 90 and lows near 70. This
humidity may also help create scattered showers and thunderstorms
each day near a weak frontal boundary, best chances during the
afternoon and early evening hours. By the weekend, temperatures
will be closer to normal, but still feature periodic chances for
rain.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Late This Afternoon through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Remaining hot/humid with periodic shower/storm chances...

Widely scattered pulse showers/storms will continue across nrn
IN/nw OH/sc Lower MI into the late afternoon and early
evening...in an area of weak low level convergence (marine
enhanced) and ample boundary layer moisture/CAPE. Lacking deep
layer forcing/shear under an upper ridge axis should limit
coverage/intensity, though cannot rule out isolated 40-60 mph wind
gusts, hail, and locally heavy rain with stronger cores.

Diurnally driven stabilizing effects will support a trend toward
mainly dry conditions under the upper ridge axis tonight into
Wednesday morning. However, did hold onto at least some low PoPs
during this time given lingering MUCAPE with 10-20 knots of low
level southwest flow into weak convergence zone (expected to
reorient more nw to se across sw Lower MI/nrn IN).

The best signal for thunderstorm development continues to be later
Wednesday into Wednesday night as the upper ridge axis shifts off
to the east and a lead/convectively aided shortwave tracks east
into this unstable environment/lingering subtle frontal zone.
Locally heavy rain will continue to be the main threat given slow
storm movement and high moisture content. A lesser threat with be
isolated strong/severe storms with slight uptick in deep layer
shear to near 20 knots.

&&

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 232 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

A more active/quasi-zonal northern stream flow regime will take hold
on the region late this week into the weekend...with the result
being a trend toward slightly cooler (closer to normal) temps and
periodic chances for showers/storms as several impulses propagate
through. Confidence in timing of higher PoPs offered by the 12z
model consensus during these periods remains low given reliance on
waves (timing) to take advantage of building heat/instability
each day. Cooler/drier conditions are then expected into early
next week as upper troughing becomes better established forcing
instability axis well south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday Afternoon)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Plenty of instability and temps near convective initiation...all
it took was convective outflow to trigger. Outflow swept southward
across Lake MI and this has triggered isold convection at KSBN.
Likewise convection is kicking off throughout the region. Shear is
weak and most storms will quickly develop vertically before
collapsing. This is also favorable to outflow boundary formation
and subsequent triggering.

Have kept VFR conditions in the TAFs and expect to see a break in
the convection after 02Z. Another round of convection will form
overnight / early Wednesday morning. With the moisture from the
showers and abundant BL moisture...cannot rule out patchy fog
overnight but not extensive or deep enough to include in the
individual TAF sites.

&&

.IWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IN...NONE.
MI...NONE.
OH...NONE.
LM...NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinwedel
SHORT TERM...Steinwedel
LONG TERM...Steinwedel
AVIATION...Lewis

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Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
457 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

INZ003>009-012>018-020-022>027-032>034-MIZ077>081-OHZ001-002-004-005-
015-016-024-025-141030-
La Porte-St. Joseph IN-Elkhart-Lagrange-Steuben-Noble-De Kalb-Starke-
Pulaski-Marshall-Fulton IN-Kosciusko-Whitley-Allen IN-White-Cass IN-
Miami-Wabash-Huntington-Wells-Adams-Grant-Blackford-Jay-Berrien-
Cass MI-St. Joseph MI-Branch-Hillsdale-Williams-Fulton OH-Defiance-
Henry-Paulding-Putnam-Van Wert-Allen OH-
457 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017 /357 AM CDT Tue Jun 13 2017/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southwest
Michigan...northern Indiana and northwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered thunderstorms are expected, especially this afternoon and
evening. A few storms may have small hail and localized wind gusts to
50 mph.

Maximum afternoon heat index values will reach into the middle 90s.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday. A few storms late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night could be strong to severe with large
hail and damaging wind gusts possible.

There are also chances for thunderstorms Thursday, Friday afternoon
and again on Saturday and Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

LMZ043-046-141030-
New Buffalo MI to St Joseph MI-Michigan City IN to New Buffalo MI-
457 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of The Nearshore
Waters of Southeastern Lake Michigan.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

There is a chance of thunderstorms, primarily this afternoon and
evening. A few storms could have wind gusts to 30 knots and locally
higher waves.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Thunderstorms are likely Wednesday. A few storms late Wednesday
afternoon into Wednesday night could be strong to severe with large
hail and wind gusts to 50 knots possible.

There are also chances for thunderstorms Thursday, Friday afternoon
and again on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio for further details or updates...or
check our web site at weather.gov/iwx

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
223 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 PM     HAIL             3 SE SIMONTON LAKE      41.72N 85.93W
06/13/2017  E0.50 INCH       ELKHART            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            0.25 TO 0.50 INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

&&

MCD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
227 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

INZ005-006-008-131900-
Lagrange-Noble-Elkhart-
227 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ELKHART...
NORTHWESTERN NOBLE AND SOUTHWESTERN LAGRANGE COUNTIES...

At 227 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Millersburg, or
7 miles north of Ligonier, moving east at 20 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ligonier, Lagrange, Middlebury, Topeka, Millersburg, Honeyville, Emma
and Cosperville.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4147 8576 4165 8571 4164 8542 4139 8549
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 285DEG 18KT 4157 8565

LEWIS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
238 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     TSTM WND GST     MIDDLEBURY              41.67N 85.71W
06/13/2017  E60 MPH          ELKHART            IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH WIND GUST. NO REPORT OF
            DAMAGE YET, TOO HARD TO TELL WITH ONGOING
            STORM.

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
256 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0234 PM     TSTM WND DMG     MIDDLEBURY              41.67N 85.71W
06/13/2017                   ELKHART            IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            A FEW SMALL LIMBS DOWNED AND A FEW SIGNS
            BLOWN DOWN (SMALLER).

&&

MCD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORTHERN INDIANA
300 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     FLOOD            1 NNE MIDDLEBURY        41.68N 85.70W
06/13/2017                   ELKHART            IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FLOODING OVER THE ROAD.

&&

CR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Northern Indiana
313 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

INZ012-014-132000-
Marshall-Starke-
313 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EASTERN STARKE AND WESTERN
MARSHALL COUNTIES...

At 311 PM EDT/211 PM CDT/, a strong thunderstorm was located over
Knox, moving southeast at 10 mph.

Wind gusts to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible with this
storm. In addition, brief funnel clouds are possible as storms
interact with numerous boundaries across the area.

Locations impacted include...
Plymouth, Knox, Culver, Hamlet, Koontz Lake, Oak Grove, Ober, Twin
Lakes, Burr Oak, Tyner, Hibbard, Winona, Donaldson, Linkville,
Grovertown, Maxinkuckee and Bass Lake.

The National Weather Service and local Emergency Management will
continue to closely monitor the situation. If you observe a funnel
cloud, stay calm and seek shelter in a sturdy building until the
funnel cloud has passed or dissipated. Please report any funnel cloud
sightings to the Northern Indiana  National Weather Service via Law
Enforcement or Social Media.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4143 8662 4143 8647 4144 8647 4142 8628
      4117 8640 4117 8645 4124 8669
TIME...MOT...LOC 1911Z 294DEG 9KT 4131 8658

FISHER