Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Indianapolis, IN

665 
WWUS53 KIND 302024
SVSIND

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
424 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

INC023-067-302034-
/O.EXP.KIND.SV.W.0027.000000T0000Z-170330T2030Z/
Clinton IN-Howard IN-
424 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN CLINTON AND
HOWARD COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 430 PM EDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However small hail
and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for central and
north central Indiana.

LAT...LON 4056 8589 4046 8587 4040 8614 4040 8624
      4037 8624 4029 8640 4039 8651 4043 8645
      4043 8638 4049 8638 4056 8627
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 235DEG 32KT 4051 8610 

$$

CP

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
334 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.UPDATE...
The SYNOPSIS...NEAR TERM...SHORT TERM and LONG TERM Sections have
been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Severe weather is possible through this evening as a strong low
pressure system moves through the region. Cool...damp and cloudy
weather is expected on Friday as an upper low moves through central
Indiana. High pressure will build in for the weekend with dry and
seasonable weather. Unsettled conditions will return for next week
however as a series of storm systems pass through the Ohio Valley.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Scattered convection beginning to take off intensity-wise across
west central Indiana as a warm front slowly lifts north through the
area. 19Z temperatures remained in the 50s north of the front while
south of the boundary...temps had risen into the 70s.

The primary focus for the near term is the potential for severe
weather over the next 6 hours or so.

Warm front currently aligned at 19Z from northern Vermillion County
E/SE through the Indy metro into Rush County. Convection has fired
across west central Indiana and the northern Wabash Valley and
quickly become severe as directional shear is maximized in the
vicinity of the boundary. The focus for severe weather and the
threat for rotating storms should focus near and north of the
retreating warm front over the next 2-3 hours. 0-1/0-3km storm
relative helicity values are also maximized in an axis along the
front. Short range guidance suggestive that the front and deeper
helicity should be northeast of the entire forecast area by 22-23Z.
Again...the greatest tornado threat will exist over these next 3
hours or so...focused largely northeast of Interstate 74 as the warm
front continues lifting north.

The secondary impact will be the squall line developing across
central and southern Illinois along the cold front. Hi-res guidance
progresses this activity east into the forecast area after 22-23Z
and quickly across the forecast area through mid evening. Damaging
winds will be the primary threat with the linear convection this
evening with helicities diminishing. As with any QLCS scenario
though...cannot rule out quick spinners associated with any kinks in
the line. Still have some concerns how intense the line will be when
it arrives as already there are hints that the deeper low level
forcing is shifting east as a slug of drier well mixed air with
dewpoints in the lower to middle 50s noted into out southwest
counties. May end up being more of a messy convective line with
individual storms pulsing in intensity.

The cold front will sweep across the forecast area by midnight with
the severe weather threat over by late evening. Thin axis of dry air
will be drawn through the region immediately behind the front and
may enable skies top briefly clear or go partly cloudy at the least.
Arrival of the upper low into the region during the predawn hours
will spread lower stratus back across the forecast area long with
the potential for a few light rain showers.

Temps...a general model blend looked reasonable for lows tonight.
Should see most areas fall into the upper 40s by daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Friday through Sunday/...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Forecast challenges focus on precip chances Friday as the upper low
slowly traverses through the region.

Stratus deck associated with upper low will expand across the area
early Friday with the entire forecast area influenced by the upper
low as it tracks east through the Ohio Valley. The presence of a
trailing surface trough sagging southeast through the forecast area
will combine with weak and shallow instability to support periodic
scattered light rain showers for much of the day...gradually
focusing over the eastern counties during the afternoon and evening.

Surface ridge will build into the region from the west beginning
Friday night with progressively drier air expanding south into
central Indiana by Saturday morning. With that being said...model
soundings and RH progs continue to highlight a shallow moisture
layer remaining trapped beneath an inversion on Friday night. Expect
the stratus to linger across much of the region for most if not all
of the night...with more substantial clearing on Saturday morning as
the drier air finally eats into the boundary layer and weakens the
inversion.

The high pressure ridge will serve as the primary influence on
weather over central Indiana through most of the rest of the short
term as it tracks east through the Great Lakes. Once the stratus
breaks over the region early Saturday...expect mostly clear skies
into early Sunday before clouds increase with mid and upper level
moisture arriving ahead of the next storm system coming out of the
southern Plains. Predominant easterly flow in the lower levels
though will keep the boundary layer dry until Sunday evening at the
earliest.

Temps...with the cold advection associated with the upper low and
clouds/rain expected...undercutting MOS for Friday and leaning much
closer to the MET guidance. Some locations may not get out of the
upper 40s. An overall model blend worked well for highs Sunday and
lows throughout the period.

&&

.LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Thursday/...
Issued at 334 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Central Indiana and the Ohio Valley will remain under an active
weather regime throughout the extended as the parade of storm
systems continues to track across the region.

First wave of low pressure will kick out of east Texas early Monday
and track northeast through the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys. Central
Indiana will reside north of the surface wave track...with rain and
embedded thunderstorms impacting most of the area and especially
southern portions of central Indiana in closer proximity to the
track of the low.

High pressure and ridging aloft will bring dry weather for Tuesday
and Tuesday night...before rain associated with the next system
arrives for Wednesday. Models have been trending further north with
this low pressure system...setting the stage for another round of
rain and thunderstorms to impact the Ohio Valley ahead of the low
and its associated cold front Wednesday afternoon and night. Cooler
and showery weather is expected for Thursday in the wake of the cold
frontal passage...with dry and chilly weather potentially to follow
for late next week.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for 301800Z TAF Issuance/...
Issued at 1256 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Restrictions possible in showers and thunderstorms through this
evening...then IFR ceilings developing Friday morning.

Dual low pressure structure over the mid Mississippi and Missouri
Valleys early this afternoon with a warm front extending E/SE
across the forecast area. North of the front...winds remained
easterly while southerly flow had commenced south of the boundary.
The front will continue to lift north through the afternoon as the
dual lows lift northeast. Expect southerly winds to develop at
both KHUF and KIND by 19Z and even pushing through KLAF by later
this afternoon. Expect gusts to peak near 25kts once the warm front
passes.

Convective evolution still remains in question but current
thinking is scattered storms will impact all terminals this
afternoon then become more widespread from 21Z through about 02Z
as the cold front moves through the area. Potential for severe
convection with damaging wind gusts during this time period but
enough uncertainty with respect to timing and intensity to leave
out of the primary tempo group at this time.

Skies may briefly clear late tonight behind the front before lower
clouds associated with the upper low overspread the forecast area
near daybreak Friday. Stratus could be as low as IFR and the
possibility exists at least for a few light showers or drizzle.
Winds will gradually veer to westerly by Friday afternoon.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Ryan
NEAR TERM...Ryan
SHORT TERM...Ryan
LONG TERM....Ryan
AVIATION...Ryan

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
354 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-311000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
354 PM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Outlook: There is an Enhanced risk for severe Thunderstorms through
this evening. A Tornado Watch is in effect until 10 pm EDT.

Hazards: Damaging winds...large hail...isolated tornadoes...flash
flooding from torrential rain and lightning.

Timing: Highest severe threat exists through 10 pm. Thunderstorms
remain possible into the overnight.

Discussion: Severe thunderstorms will impact central Indiana through
this evening. The greatest risk will be in the vicinity of a warm
front north of Interstate 74 during the late afternoon and early
evening. Tornadoes...large hail and damaging winds will be possible.

An additional line of thunderstorms will enter the region from the
west between 6 and 7 pm...impacting central Indiana through about 10
pm. The primary threat from this line of storms will be damaging
winds. Large hail and an isolated tornado will also be possible.

Multiple rounds of showers and storms could lead to flash flooding.
Lightning is a threat with any thunderstorm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Outlook: Storm systems will affect central Indiana late Sunday night
through Monday night and again on Wednesday and Wednesday night. It
is too soon to determine if these storms will be severe. Lightning
and heavy rain are threats with any thunderstorm.

Discussion: Low pressure systems will impact central Indiana and the
Ohio Valley during the early and middle parts of next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed through 10 pm tonight.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Ryan

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
330 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0326 PM     HAIL             2 NE DARLINGTON         40.13N 86.74W
03/30/2017  E0.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

            .

&&

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
334 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             3 W THORNTOWN           40.13N 86.67W
03/30/2017  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              IN   PUBLIC

            .

&&

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
IRIS SYSTEM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
339 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             2 W THORNTOWN           40.13N 86.65W
03/30/2017  E1.00 INCH       BOONE              IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            .

&&

KEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
345 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0334 PM     HAIL             LEBANON                 40.05N 86.47W
03/30/2017  E0.25 INCH       BOONE              IN   PUBLIC

            TIME APPROXIMATE.

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
349 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0346 PM     HAIL             FRANKFORT               40.28N 86.51W
03/30/2017  E1.00 INCH       CLINTON            IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            .

&&

KEH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
352 PM EDT THU MAR 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NE PLAINFIELD         39.73N 86.36W
03/30/2017                   HENDRICKS          IN   PUBLIC

            BRADFORD PEAR TREE TRUNK SNAPPED.

&&

NWS INDIANAPOLIS IN
IRIS SYSTEM