Areal Flood Warning 79, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
619 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

.UPDATE...

The Aviation section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 306 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Low pressure along with a strong cold front will move through the
area this evening bringing the potential for heavy rain and severe
thunderstorms. Cooler air will then rule into next week with highs
in the 40s to around 50 for much of the period. A couple of weaker
systems will bring precipitation to parts of the area Monday,
Tuesday, and next Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM.../Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/
Issued at 306 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

The first wave of low pressure, riding along a front from near the
northwest forecast area southwest into the St. Louis area, was
moving out of the forecast area. However, more waves are to the
southwest along the front, with more thunderstorms associated with
them.

Have already seen severe thunderstorms and possible tornadoes across
the area this afternoon, with good shear and instability for this
time of year. These favorable conditions will continue into this
evening. Upstream mid level lapse rates are higher than across the
area, and some of this air will advect in, increasing the hail
threat as well.

In addition, high precipitable water values continue with good 850mb
moisture transport. Some areas have received over a couple of inches
of rain. With more storms moving in, the flash flood threat will
continue. Thus will continue with the Flash Flood Watch.

Given all the above, will continue with high PoPs through 00Z, then
gradually decrease them from northwest to southeast through the
evening, with some lower PoPs hanging around longer across the
southeast until near 12Z. Will keep the Flash Flood Watch going
through 400 AM for now, but will likely be able to cancel it early
as the heavy rain moves out. Will watch closely.

The model blend looks reasonable for low temperatures tonight with
cold advection behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM.../Monday through Wednesday/
Issued at 306 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Monday looks to remain dry. Went higher than the blend for sky cover
Monday as an inversion will likely trap moisture. Chances for rain
will return to much of the area Monday night as a wave rides along
to the south. Forcing looks good south with decent frontogenetical
forcing added to the mix. Will go likely PoPs far south Monday
night, with only slight chance PoPs north.

Kept some lingering low PoPs Tuesday morning. Low chances for rain
will move back in to far southern areas Tuesday night with another
wave, but not all models have rain that far north. Thus confidence
is low for these Tuesday night PoPs.

High pressure will bring dry conditions Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM.../Wednesday Night Through Sunday/
Issued at 306 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization
was accepted for most items.

Much of the long term will be quiet with high pressure in control.
However, a developing upper trough and a surface low pressure system
could bring some precipitation Saturday night into Sunday.
Temperatures look cold enough that some snow may mix in with the
rain Saturday night & Sunday morning.

Temperatures will remain below average through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 06/00Z TAFs/...
Issued at 618 PM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

Predominantly MVFR conditions through the night into Monday
morning. Cannot rule out periods of IFR ceilings. Conditions
should improve Monday afternoon.

Showers and storms continue to coalesce into clusters and line
segments at this time and the complex will generally sag
southeastward as the front does so with time. LAF is done with
convection but HUF/IND will have the threat for the first few
hours of the period, and BMG for a bit longer.

Winds will become more northwesterly and northerly with time as
the front moves out, with speeds generally around 9-12KT. A few
gusts cannot be ruled out, particularly with showers and storms
early in the period, but will be transient at best.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

Flash Flood Watch until 4 AM EST Monday for INZ021-028>031-
035>049-051>057-060>065-070>072.

&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...Nield

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
416 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-060930-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
416 AM EST Sun Nov 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Severe thunderstorms and heavy rainfall later today and
tonight.

Hazards: Damaging winds...large hail...a few tornadoes...heavy
rainfall causing flooding and cloud to ground lightning.

Timing: Best threat for severe weather from early afternoon through
the evening. Best threat for heavy rainfall late afternoon through
tonight.

Discussion: The approach and passage of a cold front later today into
tonight will bring the threat for severe thunderstorms and heavy
rainfall to central Indiana.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Outlook: Scattered showers are possible late Monday into
Tuesday...especially south of Interstate 70. Showers will be possible
again on Saturday.

Discussion: The passage of low pressure through the Tennessee Valley
will bring scattered showers to south central Indiana Monday night
and early Tuesday. Dry and cooler weather is then expected with high
pressure through the rest of the work week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Ryan

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
659 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0646 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N FRANKFORT           40.31N 86.51W
11/05/2017  M2.27 INCH       CLINTON            IN   PUBLIC

            RAIN SO FAR TODAY. LOCATION APPROXIMATE.

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
705 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 NW STRAUGHN           39.83N 85.32W
11/05/2017  M3.07 INCH       HENRY              IN   PUBLIC

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
722 PM EST SUN NOV 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0205 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 WNW KIRKLIN           40.21N 86.43W
11/05/2017                   CLINTON            IN   PUBLIC

            UTILITY POLE BLOWN ALMOST ALL THE WAY OVER
            ONTO SOUTH COUNTY ROAD 400 EAST NEAR EAST
            STATE ROAD 38. TIME IS ROUGHLY BASED ON
            RADAR.

&&

BHH