Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
437 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

.UPDATE...
The AVIATION Section has been updated below.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 331 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A low pressure system will bring showers and thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening and then rain and windy conditions for
Thursday. After a dry weekend, another system will bring more rain
chances for early next week. Temperatures will be below normal
Thursday and Friday, then near to above normal temperatures will
prevail.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Rest of This Afternoon and Tonight/...

Issued at 331 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

A complex low pressure system across southeast Missouri and
southwest Kentucky will move east this afternoon and bring showers
and thunderstorms to the area. Very warm air is entering the far
southern forecast area where it's already in the lower 70s. Lower
80s were across north central Kentucky. However, dewpoints remain
relatively low even in the warmer air.

Some uncertainty on how far north the warm air will get and even
more uncertainty on how far north the low level moisture
(higher dewpoints) will get. This will play a role on the types of
severe weather possible across the area. Will continue to monitor.

At any rate, showers and thunderstorms will move across the area
for the remainder of the afternoon. Will go likely or higher PoPs
and will use a pre-first period in the text forecast.

Tonight the surface low will move out of the area as an upper
low moves in. The upper system will have good forcing so will go
with likely or higher PoPs all areas at some point during the
night. Some of the heavier rain amounts may develop across the
northern forecast area where good deformation sets up.

Winds will increase late tonight as the pressure gradient
increases and stronger winds aloft move in. By 12Z the northwest
forecast area, and perhaps more, may be seeing some stronger wind
gusts. After collaborating with surrounding offices, decided to
start a wind advisory for the western half of the northern
forecast area at 09Z.

Model blend looks good enough for low temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Thursday through Friday/...

Issued at 331 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Models are close enough that the model blend initialization was
accepted for most items.

Rain will be likely across much of the area Thursday morning with
the upper low still in the vicinity. As the low moves off to the
east during the day, chances will diminish from west to east. Will
reflect as such in the PoP forecast.

Strong winds aloft mixing down in cold advection along with a
tight pressure gradient across the forecast area will lead to
windy conditions Thursday. Across the far northern forecast area
wouldn't be surprised to see gusts near 50 mph. Will expand the
wind advisory east at 16Z to cover the remainder of the northern
two-thirds of the area. Will let the advisory run for all areas
until 00Z.

Temperatures across much of the area will have a hard time rising,
so will go closer to a blend of raw model numbers for high
temperatures rather than the warmer MOS numbers.

Chances for precipitation will continue across the eastern 3/4 of
the forecast area Thursday evening with some forcing lingering in
the area. Overnight Thursday night low PoPs will continue across
about the east third.

Temperatures will be cold aloft, and as near surface temperatures
cool during the night some snow will mix in with the rain,
especially northeast. Wouldn't rule out the possibility of a
dusting of snow in the far northeast forecast area, but warm
ground temperatures will work against it.

Dry conditions will then prevail Friday with high pressure moving
in. Temperatures will warm up but still be below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Issued at 224 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Enough agreement with longer range models that
the regional blend should be a good forecast
through Wednesday for both temperature and precipitation.

Friday starts with surface high pressure building in
while deep upper low in the eastern Great Lakes begins
lifting northeast. Upshot will be sunnier days starting with
cool temperatures Friday, a frosty Saturday morning, then a
steady warming trend lasting into Monday.

Models slightly different on arrival of next weather systems
precipitation Monday or Monday night but otherwise this system
clears out of here by late Tuesday. This system will not be
nearly as amplified as current trough bringing major weather to
our area into Thursday so lighter showers and perhaps some
thunderstorms are expected.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 052100Z KIND TAF Update/...
Issued at 437 PM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

Fairly widespread shower and thunderstorm activity currently across
the area in advance of an upper vorticity lobe that appears to be
moving into southwest Indiana. As this vorticity lobe lifts off to
the northeast, convective threat at the terminals looks to remain
rather high until about 060100Z. Appears there may a threat for
embedded convection after that time as well, but will revisit this
with the next routine issuance.

Otherwise, short term model guidance surface low will pass near the
KIND terminal later this evening. Have adjusted the wind forecast
for the rest of this afternoon and early evening to reflect this.

Synopsis...strong low pressure will track from southwest Indiana at
the start of the period to northern Ohio by 061800z producing
periods of thunderstorms then steadier rains on the backside of the
low pressure center.

Winds...will become strong, backing from east through north to
northwest at all but KBMG where winds will veer to southwest early
this evening and then northwest later in period. Sustained winds
over 20 knots and gusts over 30 knots expected daytime hours
Thursday.

Ceilings...VFR decks will trend to MVFR in any thunderstorms or
heavy showers through this evening. As winds turn to NW on the
backside of the low, decks will drop to IFR and hover there
through 061800z.

Visibility...will only be lowered, briefly to IFR at times, during
heavier showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from noon to 8 PM EDT Thursday for INZ040>042-048-
049-056-057.

Wind Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Thursday for INZ021-028>031-
035>039-043>047-054-055.

&&

SYNOPSIS...50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....Tucek
AVIATION...Tucek/JAS

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
511 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-060915-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
511 AM EDT Wed Apr 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: Severe thunderstorms possible, with the risk increasing from
north to south.

Hazards: Tornadoes. Damaging straight line winds. Large hail.
Lightning. Heavy rain.

Timing: Severe weather possible from this afternoon through early
tonight with the highest chance 5 PM to 10 PM.

Discussion: A complex system composed of a low pressure center, a
warm front, and a cold front will cross Indiana.

 .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Outlook: Very windy Thursday. Snow showers possible Thursday night,
but no accumulation expected. Areas of frost Friday night. Chance of
thunderstorms Monday and Tuesday, but it is too early to tell if
storms will be severe.

Discussion: Strong low pressure will dominate Indiana weather into
Thursday night, then give way to high pressure. Another low pressure
system should approach early next week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will likely be needed this afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
446 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0440 PM     HAIL             GREENSBURG              39.34N 85.48W
04/05/2017  E1.00 INCH       DECATUR            IN   PUBLIC

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
450 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0444 PM     HAIL             GREENSBURG              39.34N 85.48W
04/05/2017  E0.25 INCH       DECATUR            IN   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
510 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0501 PM     HAIL             2 WNW WEST LAFAYETTE    40.46N 86.95W
04/05/2017  E0.50 INCH       TIPPECANOE         IN   AMATEUR RADIO

            HAIL LASTED ABOUT 30 SECONDS.

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
512 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0410 PM     HAIL             HAYDEN                  38.98N 85.74W
04/05/2017  E0.50 INCH       JENNINGS           IN   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BHH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
522 PM EDT WED APR 5 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     FLOOD            GLENWOOD                39.63N 85.30W
04/05/2017                   RUSH               IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            ROADS UNDERWATER IN TOWN AND SURROUNDING
            COUNTY ROADS. REPORT RELAYED BY EMERGENCY
            MANAGEMENT.

&&

BHH