Areal Flood Warning 20, NWS Indianapolis, IN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
433 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.UPDATE...
Aviation section updated

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Pattern has become and will remain relatively active for rain into
Sunday night. A strong upper low in the northern Rockies will
track east across southern Canada through the remainder of the
week and establish northwest flow aloft by early next week.

The Wednesday night-Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday time frames
still appear to be those times which better support aloft
interacts with continued warm and humid air flowing in from the
Gulf. Sunday appears to have more widespread severe potential with
a bit stronger trough and surface low moving east across the Great
Lakes.

Temperatures will back down just a little as more cloud cover from
scattered convection limits insolation. Frontal passages early
Thursday, Saturday day, and late Sunday all will bring a little
Canadian air with them and lower temps and humidity slightly.

Unstable air with no capping inversion today has produced widely
scattered convection. With the approach of the Canadian upper
flow, dynamics and more detectable troughing will approach our
area bringing likelihood of more widespread convection Wednesday
night into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /Tonight/...

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Ongoing scattered convection has shown no signs of slowing down.
Models indicate at least a brief drop off in precipitation
potential this evening as air stabilizes from todays rain and loss
of insolation. However,relatively high precipitable water and
remaining instability, especially in our east and southeast
counties, suggest some showers and storms could carry on through
the night.

With dewpoints upper 60s to lower 70s, min temps should only reach
the lower 70s like this morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /Wednesday through Friday/...

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Unstable air with little capping again suggests more scattered
convection Wednesday and a weak short wave moving in late day
should enhance the likelihood and coverage of rain.

Wednesday night into Thursday early...all models show trough
moving through and surface ridge following in its wake Thursday
afternoon. This results in likely pops for this time frame and
clearing Thursday afternoon.

Thursday night and Friday, tranquil pattern as surface ridge moves
quickly across swing surface winds from NW around the dial to
South by Friday morning.

Models differ some for Friday with several bringing a weak short
wave through the cyclonic flow Friday afternoon with a return
threat for storms while ECMWF holds back on this. Some POPs have
been continued Friday afternoon given this uncertainty.

Temperatures these periods are a blend...and continue a bit above
normal though fewer 90s are expected given cloudiness and then
cold frontal passage.

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday night through Tuesday/...

Issued at 238 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

Friday night should be quiet as southwesterly flow reloads surface
moisture and weak upper ridge moves across.

Saturday all models show a weak short wave trough moving across
which should help to produce scattered convection during the day.

Sunday...all models show a deepening of the upper trough
developing a well organized surface low in the Great Lakes,
sweeping a cold front through during daytime hours. The outcome is
likely to be an organized line of storms with perhaps scattered
convection ahead of the trough. Given the instability in place and
decent dynamics, this likely will produce strong convection.\

Sunday night through Tuesday, cooler and drier Canadian air
settles across the area. A few instability showers may occur in
the cyclonic flow aloft, but this will likely stay closer to the
Great Lakes.

Temperatures will be near normal this period and may tend slightly
below normal briefly at the end of this period.

&&

.AVIATION /Discussion for the 132100Z IND TAF/...

VFR Conditions will continue the next several hours. Scattered
showers/storms across the area are expected to continue through
the daytime heating hours. At this moment...no storm is imminent
for the KIND TAf site...thus vcts will continue to be used to
denote the potential of a pop up storm.

Previous Discussion Below

/Discussion for 131800z TAFs/...

Issued at 118 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

VFR with wind near or below 10 knots except within storms where
visibility drops briefly to 2 miles in heavy rain. Gusts
approaching 50 knots in stronger storms and hail to dime size.

Storm conditions will subside by sundown today.

Patchy late night fog possible from todays rain. May be a repeat
of scattered storms tomorrow's daytime heating.

&&

.IND WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...Tucek
NEAR TERM...Tucek
SHORT TERM...Tucek
LONG TERM....Tucek
AVIATION...Tucek/JP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
509 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

INZ021-028>031-035>049-051>057-060>065-067>072-141000-
Carroll-Warren-Tippecanoe-Clinton-Howard-Fountain-Montgomery-Boone-
Tipton-Hamilton-Madison-Delaware-Randolph-Vermillion-Parke-Putnam-
Hendricks-Marion-Hancock-Henry-Vigo-Clay-Owen-Morgan-Johnson-Shelby-
Rush-Sullivan-Greene-Monroe-Brown-Bartholomew-Decatur-Knox-Daviess-
Martin-Lawrence-Jackson-Jennings-
Including the cities of Lafayette, Frankfort, Kokomo,
Crawfordsville, Anderson, Muncie, Indianapolis, Terre Haute,
Shelbyville, Bloomington, Columbus, Vincennes, Bedford, and Seymour
509 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for central Indiana.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Outlook: There is a chance for thunderstorms today.

Hazards: Lightning. Gusty winds. Brief heavy rain. High
Heat Indices.

Timing: Anytime.

Discussion: Weak upper impulses combined with warm, moist and
unstable air could trigger a few thunderstorms today and tonight.
The heat index will be in the mid and upper 90s at times this
afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Outlook: Heat index values in the mid 90s can be expected during the
afternoon and evening hours Wednesday. There is a marginal risk for
severe weather including damaging winds and large hail Wednesday
afternoon and evening and Thursday afternoon and evening. Otherwise,
thunderstorms are possible through the weekend. Any storm is capable
of producing gusty winds, brief heavy rain and cloud to ground
lightning.

Discussion: Southwest winds will continue to bring very warm and
humid air and thunderstorm chances to central Indiana through the
weekend.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is possible at times, mainly Wednesday afternoon
and evening and Thursday afternoon and evening.

&&

More information, along with other weather, hydrological and climate
information can be found at http://weather.gov/ind

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
1256 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

INZ056-057-064-065-131745-
Rush IN-Decatur IN-Bartholomew IN-Shelby IN-
1256 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SHELBY...SOUTHERN RUSH...NORTHERN
DECATUR AND NORTHEASTERN BARTHOLOMEW COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 1255 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Shelbyville, moving east at 20 mph.

Dime size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Shelbyville, Greensburg, Adams, Hope, Flat Rock, Milford, Geneva, St.
Paul, Fairland, Milroy, Burney, Waldron, Moscow, New Salem, Manilla
and Sandusky.

LAT...LON 3928 8585 3950 8588 3963 8581 3956 8534
      3929 8537
TIME...MOT...LOC 1655Z 279DEG 18KT 3949 8576

AW/MR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
110 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

INZ047-048-131745-
Hancock IN-Marion IN-
110 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN HANCOCK AND EASTERN
MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 110 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Indianapolis, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Indianapolis, Lawrence, Beech Grove, Cumberland, McCordsville, Warren
Park, Rocky Ripple, Wynnedale, Spring Hill, Crows Nest, North Crows
Nest, Monument Circle, Indiana State Fairgrounds and Broad Ripple.

LAT...LON 3991 8592 3970 8591 3970 8595 3968 8595
      3968 8619 3986 8622
TIME...MOT...LOC 1710Z 262DEG 19KT 3978 8611

AW/MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
115 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 AM     TSTM WND DMG     NEW WHITELAND           39.56N 86.10W
06/13/2017                   JOHNSON            IN   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            HOME SUSTAINED MINOR SHINGLE DAMAGE.

&&

DRT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
121 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

INZ052>054-062-131800-
Owen IN-Clay IN-Morgan IN-Monroe IN-
121 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MONROE...
SOUTHWESTERN MORGAN...CLAY AND OWEN COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM EDT...

At 121 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Spencer, or 18 miles northwest of Bloomington, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Bloomington, Spencer, Ellettsville, Jasonville, Clay City, Gosport,
Center Point, Stinesville, Coal City, Indiana University, Bowling
Green, Quincy, McCormicks Creek State Park, Freedom, Patricksburg,
Coalmont, Cory, Saline City, Cagles Mill Lake and Devore.

LAT...LON 3948 8724 3947 8681 3948 8662 3916 8649
      3917 8724
TIME...MOT...LOC 1721Z 264DEG 15KT 3929 8683

AW/MR

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
124 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

INZ057-131745-
Rush IN-
124 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN RUSH COUNTY UNTIL
145 PM EDT...

At 123 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Rushville, or 12 miles east of Shelbyville, moving east at 15 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Rushville, Arlington and Manilla.

LAT...LON 3950 8542 3955 8563 3959 8563 3970 8561
      3969 8539
TIME...MOT...LOC 1723Z 264DEG 15KT 3958 8555

AW/MR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
154 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0147 PM     HAIL             ZIONSVILLE              39.95N 86.27W
06/13/2017  M1.00 INCH       BOONE              IN   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT THE ZIONSVILLE TOWN HALL.

&&

AW