Special Weather Statement, NWS Lincoln, IL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
832 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 832 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

The line of storms is quickly progressing toward Indiana, with a
break in the rain likely for a majority of central and southeast
Illinois in the middle part of the night. The severe thunderstorm
watch should be able to be cancelled early for most of our
counties. Isolated wind damage could still occur with the line,
but the hail threat has diminished. The cold front will begin to
slow down and become oriented from west to east across our
southern counties by morning. The front is expected to be the
focus for additional showers and storms to develop later tonight
and Thursday as a shortwave progresses across Illinois along the
front.

Little change in the airmass will occur before morning, so we
expect the higher surface dewpoints on top of recent rains to set
the stage for some light fog to develop, especially in our
northern areas that see winds diminish.

Low temps look to remain relatively mild, especially due to
persistent cloud cover. Lows will bottom out in the mid 50s from
Peoria and north, with mid to upper 60s south of I-70.

Updates this evening were to timing the weather and PoPs,
providing a break in the rain in at least our NW counties. Minor
adjustments were needed to the temps/dewpoints. Updated forecast
info is already available.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Instability parameters indicate that severe potential will
continue through the evening as a squall line of storms progresses
from NW to SE across central IL. Damaging winds will be the
primary hazard, with some large hail possible. Supercell
development has already started in SE Iowa, and the line will
evolve into an outflow dominated complex by the time it reaches
near the Illinois river. The proximity of a stalled frontal
boundary, roughly just south of I-74, will set the stage for a few
tornadoes possible as storms interact with the frontal boundary.

A sizable break in the rain looks to develop behind the squall
line in our N-NW counties as the front stalls out across our
southern counties. The break in the rain may eventually reach all
of our counties before the next shortwave rides east along the
front Thursday morning and potentially triggers a few showers for
the southern half of our forecast area. Thunderstorms should
mainly be south of Springfield to Danville, with strong to severe
potential mainly south of I-70.

Light fog could develop behind the front, especially in NW areas
after the rain ends and low clouds form in the moist boundary
layer. Minimal airmass change before sunrise will allow the low
clouds and fog to keep low temperatures on the mild side, ranging
from the mid 50s near Galesburg to the upper 60s toward
Lawrenceville. Some clearing could develop on Thursday across the
north, but clouds look to hold firm across the south, which could
reduce diurnal swings tomorrow. High temps look to reach the upper
60s north, with mid-upper 70s south of I-70.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
ISSUED AT 255 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

The slow departure of the cold front Thursday night will keep
rain chances in the forecast for mainly S of I-70. The cooler air
will eventually progress into central IL Thurs night and Friday.
Our coolest temperatures of the next week will be Thur night and
Friday. Despite some sunshine of Friday, high temps will be
limited to the upper 60s to around 70.

The weekend looks to be dry with a warming trend, under high
pressure. Plenty of sunshine and warming mid-layer temperatures
will help to push highs back into the 70s on Saturday, with some
lower 80s returning for Sunday. The warm conditions look to
continue through Tuesday, with highs in the low 80s. A few spotty
showers could develop late Monday night and Tuesday as a warm
frontal circulation develops along I-74 and then lifts northward.
Rain chances look to increase on Wednesday as the warm sector
experiences increased instability and a weak shortwave passes
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 627 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

Line of strong to severe storms will progress eastward across the
terminal sites this evening. It is becoming outflow dominant as it
reaches the Illinois River, and should see increased forward
motion over the next 2-4 hours. We included tempo groups for an
hour or two for IFR conditions during the squall line, and wind
gusts to 50kt will be possible, along with some 1" hail. There
will be a break in the rain for at least the I-74 terminals, after
the squall line moves through. SPI and DEC will be closer to where
the frontal boundary slows down and stalls out, but even those
sites should see a break for a couple hours later this evening or
after midnight.

The high resolution models are showing a secondary wave of energy
progressing across our southern terminals late tonight into
tomorrow morning, possibly triggering another round of
showers/storms.

Cloud heights are expected to lower to IFR late tonight, and
possibly LIFR clouds, with MVFR fog, mainly due to lighter winds
near the behind the frontal boundary.

Conditions should improve to MVFR by late morning, and possibly
even some VFR during the afternoon as winds become N-NE by the end
of this TAF period.

&&

.ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Shimon
SHORT TERM...Shimon
LONG TERM...Shimon
AVIATION...Shimon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1204 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

ILZ027>031-036>038-040>055-061-111200-
Cass-Champaign-Christian-De Witt-Douglas-Fulton-Knox-Logan-Macon-
Marshall-Mason-McLean-Menard-Morgan-Moultrie-Peoria-Piatt-
Sangamon-Schuyler-Scott-Shelby-Stark-Tazewell-Vermilion-Woodford-
1204 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central
Illinois, east central Illinois and west central Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Scattered thunderstorms will develop by afternoon and continue
tonight. There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms
containing large hail and damaging wind gusts from mid afternoon
through late evening. An isolated tornado risk exists as well.

The Illinois River and portions of the Sangamon river will remain
in flood.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through Thursday afternoon
or evening, however the threat of severe weather is low.

Flooding will continue for several days or more on the Illinois
River and linger on a portion of the Sangamon River through
Thursday night. Refer to applicable flood warnings for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon or evening.

ILZ056-057-062-063-066>068-071>073-111200-
Clark-Clay-Coles-Crawford-Cumberland-Edgar-Effingham-Jasper-
Lawrence-Richland-
1204 PM CDT Wed May 10 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of east central
Illinois and southeast Illinois.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon
through tonight. There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms
containing hail and strong gusty winds from mid afternoon through
late evening.

The Wabash and portions of the Embarras and Little Wabash rivers
will remain in flood.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

Scattered thunderstorms will continue through Thursday night.
There is a marginal to slight risk of severe thunderstorms
containing hail and strong gusty winds Thursday.

Flooding will continue for several days on the Wabash River and
portions of the Embarras River. Refer to the applicable flood
warnings for details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon or evening.

Goetsch

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
828 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0815 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 W SPRINGFIELD         39.78N 89.74W
05/10/2017  M1.39 INCH       SANGAMON           IL   MESONET

&&

JRP

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
1022 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

ILZ066>068-071>073-110400-
Clay-Richland-Jasper-Effingham-Lawrence-Crawford-
1022 PM CDT WED MAY 10 2017

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN LAWRENCE...SOUTHERN
CRAWFORD...SOUTHERN JASPER...NORTHERN RICHLAND...NORTHERN CLAY AND
SOUTHEASTERN EFFINGHAM COUNTIES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT...

At 1022 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Edgewood, or 14 miles south of Effingham, moving east at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Olney, Newton, Sumner, Oblong, Watson, Dieterich, Bible Grove, Flat
Rock, Ste. Marie, Willow Hill, Claremont, Wheeler, Iola, Sailor
Springs, New Hebron, Chauncey, Hardinville, Ingraham, West Liberty
and Birds.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3881 8869 3908 8852 3897 8758 3868 8776
TIME...MOT...LOC 0322Z 277DEG 42KT 3892 8855

Barker