Special Weather Statement, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
153 PM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and moist air mass will remain in place across the region
through Thursday. This will lead to periods of thunderstorms
through mid week along with the possibility for locally heavy
rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Increased precipitation chances and QPF this morning. A warm
and humid airmass is in place and moisture transport vectors
support slow moving storms especially across southeastern
portions of the forecast area. Due to this added heavy rain
mention to the forecast as well.

Made only minor adjustments to temperatures today. High
temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s
across the region. The lower temperatures will be across
southern portions of the region where more cloud cover and
thunderstorm activity will be located. With precipitation,
temperatures could be quite variable.

Given CAPE values, cannot rule out some isolated damaging winds
or large hail, however expect the main threat today to be flash
flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The higher res convective allowing models are fairly consistent
we should see a decreasing trend in the pcpn coverage by this
evening. However, with some lingering instabilities, will hang
on to a slight chance of pops through the overnight hours. Some
of the models are suggesting some developing showers and
thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday morning along a low
level convergent boundary across western portions of our fa.
Will therefore allow for increasing chance pops across our west
through the morning hours and then have chance pops across the
entire fa through the afternoon as we further destabilize
through the day and a weakening boundary sags down across the
region. We will again be in a light flow regime so expect
locally heavy rainfall on Wednesday. Given the good instability,
we will also have the the possibility for isolated severe wind
gusts once again. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active pattern through most of the long term will take hold as
multiple upper level disturbances move across the area with a cold
front pushing through late Sunday. Most of the long term will also
be characterized by warm/ above normal temperatures with
temperatures falling slightly below normal starting at the end of
the long term. This pattern of warm above normal temperatures this
week followed by a cooling trend starting next week has been
consistent with both the GEFS and GEPS showing falling height
anomalies by the beginning of next week.

Looking at the details, shows that an upper level low will open up
the long term near Manitoba and will be slowly pushing east with
upper level ridging beginning to take hold over northern Mexico. A
cold front will also be stalled across northeastern Ohio at this
time before starting to wash out. Wednesday night the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will remain, but coverage will likely
decrease in the evening as daytime heating is lost. Even overnight
though GFS forecast soundings do show some instability which will
allow the chance of precipitation to continue (along with PWATs
around 1.60"). Early Thursday morning, the upper level low over
Manitoba will allow pockets of PV to wash over the area. By Thursday
afternoon forecast soundings again destabilize with ML CAPE values
on the GFS between 1000 J/kg and 1800 J/kg. Mean SFC-6 km flow
remains very weak at about 15kts and with PWATs approaching 1.70"
(above the 90th percentile for this time of year) heavy rain appears
to be the primary threat. Omega values also light up Thursday with
the passage of the PV. Given the upper level lift, high PWAT values,
and instability have nudged PoPs up for Thursday.

Thursday night into Friday there will likely be a break in the
precipitation at some time due to weak subsidence on the back side
of the departing shortwave. Drier air also temporarily filters in
Friday morning with PWATs falling to around 1.10". PWATs will begin
to tick upwards Friday afternoon with forecast soundings again
starting to destabilize. Overall am thinking spotty coverage Friday
afternoon with dry air remaining in forecast soundings, but given
the destabilization in the forecast soundings have kept low end PoP
chances in the forecast.

Saturday into Sunday the upper level low that was over Manitoba will
have pushed east into Ontario with a cold front extending southwest.
Forecast soundings continue to advertise the chance of rain Saturday
due to sufficient instability and moisture present. It should be
noted that models have struggled with exactly how to handle this
low, but the overall answer of a wet weekend appears to be becoming
clearer. The ECMWF actually brings a weak prefrontal system through
Saturday afternoon with the main cold front sweeping through late
Sunday/ early Monday. The GFS doesn't really have this second piece
of energy, but still pushes the cold front through around the same
time as the ECMWF and CMC. Monday, surface high pressure will build
in from the north with drying conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Thunderstorms this afternoon will decrease in coverage this
evening. Additional thunderstorms are expected late in the
overnight hours and into the day on Wednesday. Visbys will be
reduced at times with the thunderstorm activity.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night through Thursday
and then again on Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for OHZ054>056-
     063>065-072>074-079>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM EDT this evening for KYZ099-100.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...Novak

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1021 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>098-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>053-060>062-070-071-077-078-141430-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-
Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Preble-Montgomery-
Greene-Butler-Warren-Hamilton-Clermont-
1021 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms today will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall, isolated large hail, and isolated damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Occasional thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday. Some
of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall
and isolated damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report significant weather conditions.

KYZ099-100-OHZ054>056-063>065-072>074-079>082-088-141430-
Mason-Lewis-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
1021 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northeast Kentucky, Northern
Kentucky, Central Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Scattered thunderstorms today will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall, isolated large hail, and isolated damaging wind
gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Occasional thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday. Some
of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall
and isolated damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters should report significant weather conditions.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
223 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

KYZ099-131845-
Mason KY-
223 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT MASON COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM EDT...

At 223 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Washington,
moving east at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Pea size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Maysville, Washington, Aberdeen, Lewisburg, Sardis, Murphysville,
Mount Gilead, Mays Lick, Fleming-Mason Airport, Helena and Somo.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3846 8387 3849 8393 3851 8395 3865 8396
      3869 8395 3866 8377 3865 8376 3865 8372
      3863 8367 3864 8364 3852 8364 3850 8372
      3846 8385
TIME...MOT...LOC 1823Z 280DEG 16KT 3859 8388

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
230 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1238 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 WSW MONROE            39.42N 84.45W
06/13/2017                   BUTLER             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN ON MERCEDES DRIVE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JGIBSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
232 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1231 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W OXFORD              39.51N 84.79W
06/13/2017                   BUTLER             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            WIRES DOWN ON RIGGS ROAD. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

JGIBSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

OHZ045-131900-
Union OH-
239 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT CENTRAL UNION COUNTY IN CENTRAL
OHIO UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

At 239 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near North
Lewisburg, moving east at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Marysville, Magnetic Springs, Raymond, Pharisburg, Pottersburg,
Broadway and New Dover.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4039 8325 4025 8325 4024 8324 4017 8350
      4023 8349 4023 8354 4035 8354
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 251DEG 17KT 4026 8347

JDR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
306 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0142 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 E WILLIAMSTOWN        38.64N 84.51W
06/13/2017                   GRANT              KY   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ONE LARGE TREE LIMB DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

KC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

OHZ045-131930-
Union OH-
308 PM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTY IN
CENTRAL OHIO UNTIL 330 PM EDT...

At 308 PM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near West
Mansfield, moving northeast at 15 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Richwood, Byhalia, Broadway, Raymond, Pottersburg and Somersville.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 4026 8350 4033 8354 4047 8350 4041 8326
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 219DEG 11KT 4035 8348

JDR