Flash Flood Watch 4, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
919 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm and moist air mass will remain in place across the region
through Thursday. This will lead to periods of thunderstorms
through mid week along with the possibility for locally heavy
rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Increased precipitation chances and QPF this morning. A warm
and humid airmass is in place and moisture transport vectors
support slow moving storms especially across southeastern
portions of the forecast area. Due to this added heavy rain
mention to the forecast as well.

Made only minor adjustments to temperatures today. High
temperatures will generally be in the upper 80s to low 90s
across the region. The lower temperatures will be across
southern portions of the region where more cloud cover and
thunderstorm activity will be located. With precipitation,
temperatures could be quite variable.

Given CAPE values, cannot rule out some isolated damaging winds
or large hail, however expect the main threat today to be flash
flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
The higher res convective allowing models are fairly consistent
we should see a decreasing trend in the pcpn coverage by this
evening. However, with some lingering instabilities, will hang
on to a slight chance of pops through the overnight hours. Some
of the models are suggesting some developing showers and
thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday morning along a low
level convergent boundary across western portions of our fa.
Will therefore allow for increasing chance pops across our west
through the morning hours and then have chance pops across the
entire fa through the afternoon as we further destabilize
through the day and a weakening boundary sags down across the
region. We will again be in a light flow regime so expect
locally heavy rainfall on Wednesday. Given the good instability,
we will also have the the possibility for isolated severe wind
gusts once again. Highs on Wednesday will be in the mid to upper
80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
An active pattern through most of the long term will take hold as
multiple upper level disturbances move across the area with a cold
front pushing through late Sunday. Most of the long term will also
be characterized by warm/ above normal temperatures with
temperatures falling slightly below normal starting at the end of
the long term. This pattern of warm above normal temperatures this
week followed by a cooling trend starting next week has been
consistent with both the GEFS and GEPS showing falling height
anomalies by the beginning of next week.

Looking at the details, shows that an upper level low will open up
the long term near Manitoba and will be slowly pushing east with
upper level ridging beginning to take hold over northern Mexico. A
cold front will also be stalled across northeastern Ohio at this
time before starting to wash out. Wednesday night the chance of
showers and thunderstorms will remain, but coverage will likely
decrease in the evening as daytime heating is lost. Even overnight
though GFS forecast soundings do show some instability which will
allow the chance of precipitation to continue (along with PWATs
around 1.60"). Early Thursday morning, the upper level low over
Manitoba will allow pockets of PV to wash over the area. By Thursday
afternoon forecast soundings again destabilize with ML CAPE values
on the GFS between 1000 J/kg and 1800 J/kg. Mean SFC-6 km flow
remains very weak at about 15kts and with PWATs approaching 1.70"
(above the 90th percentile for this time of year) heavy rain appears
to be the primary threat. Omega values also light up Thursday with
the passage of the PV. Given the upper level lift, high PWAT values,
and instability have nudged PoPs up for Thursday.

Thursday night into Friday there will likely be a break in the
precipitation at some time due to weak subsidence on the back side
of the departing shortwave. Drier air also temporarily filters in
Friday morning with PWATs falling to around 1.10". PWATs will begin
to tick upwards Friday afternoon with forecast soundings again
starting to destabilize. Overall am thinking spotty coverage Friday
afternoon with dry air remaining in forecast soundings, but given
the destabilization in the forecast soundings have kept low end PoP
chances in the forecast.

Saturday into Sunday the upper level low that was over Manitoba will
have pushed east into Ontario with a cold front extending southwest.
Forecast soundings continue to advertise the chance of rain Saturday
due to sufficient instability and moisture present. It should be
noted that models have struggled with exactly how to handle this
low, but the overall answer of a wet weekend appears to be becoming
clearer. The ECMWF actually brings a weak prefrontal system through
Saturday afternoon with the main cold front sweeping through late
Sunday/ early Monday. The GFS doesn't really have this second piece
of energy, but still pushes the cold front through around the same
time as the ECMWF and CMC. Monday, surface high pressure will build
in from the north with drying conditions.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
We are still seeing some spotty thunderstorms persisting this
morning so will just start with a VCTS at the northern TAF
sites. As we destabilize through late morning and into early
morning, expect thunderstorm activity to become more widespread
and will cover the most favorable time through early to mid
afternoon with a tempo group for thunder. Most of this activity
looks to be diurnally driven so will allow for pcpn to taper off
late this afternoon into early evening. A weak front will drop
down from the north later tonight and this could lead to a
chance of thunder toward the end of the TAF period for the
northern TAF sites but chance appears low enough at this point
to keep the mention out of the TAFs.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms possible Tuesday night through Thursday
and then again on Saturday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JGL
NEAR TERM...Novak
SHORT TERM...JGL
LONG TERM...Haines
AVIATION...JGL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
401 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>100-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088-141100-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Owen-Grant-
Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-Mason-Lewis-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-
Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-
Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-
Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-
Highland-Adams-Pike-Scioto-
401 AM EDT Tue Jun 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northeast Kentucky, Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms today will be capable of producing locally
heavy rainfall and isolated damaging wind gusts.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.
Occasional thunderstorms are expected Wednesday into Thursday. Some
of these storms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall
and isolated damaging wind gusts.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
619 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

OHZ073-131045-
Ross OH-
619 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN ROSS COUNTY UNTIL
645 AM EDT...

At 619 AM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Chillicothe, moving east at 20 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Chillicothe, Londonderry, Massieville, Mooresville, Scioto Trail
State Park and Richmond Dale.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3917 8277 3919 8299 3941 8298 3938 8275
TIME...MOT...LOC 1019Z 281DEG 17KT 3933 8287

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
622 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

OHZ065-074-131045-
Fairfield OH-Hocking OH-
622 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FAIRFIELD AND NORTH
CENTRAL HOCKING COUNTIES UNTIL 645 AM EDT...

At 622 AM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over Lancaster,
moving east at 15 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Bremen, Pleasantville, Hide-A-Way Hills, Sugar Grove,
Rushville, West Rushville, Fairfield County Airport, North Berne,
Hideaway Hills and Dumontville.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3961 8238 3961 8264 3980 8267 3985 8247
      3984 8247 3983 8240 3975 8240 3974 8237
TIME...MOT...LOC 1022Z 262DEG 13KT 3972 8257

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
830 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

OHZ053-054-062>064-073-131300-
Ross OH-Fayette OH-Madison OH-Pickaway OH-Clark OH-Greene OH-
830 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT FAYETTE...NORTHWESTERN
PICKAWAY...SOUTHEASTERN CLARK...EAST CENTRAL GREENE...SOUTHERN
MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN ROSS COUNTIES UNTIL 900 AM EDT...

At 830 AM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Jeffersonville, moving east at 50 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Washington Court House, Jamestown, Mount Sterling, South Charleston,
Jeffersonville, Bloomingburg, New Holland, South Solon, Midway,
Darbyville, Milledgeville, Octa, Deer Creek Lake, Chenoweth,
Interstate 71 at State Route 38, Rosemoor, Selma, Madison Mills,
Gladstone and Bookwalter.

This includes I-71 in Ohio between mile markers 62 and 86.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3965 8381 3987 8368 3973 8308 3942 8325
TIME...MOT...LOC 1230Z 290DEG 45KT 3971 8364

Novak

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
856 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0852 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SE CEDARVILLE         39.73N 83.80W
06/13/2017                   GREENE             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER AT 72 AND TURNBULL ROAD

&&

JGIBSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
919 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

OHZ063-072-131345-
Fayette OH-Clinton OH-
919 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHERN FAYETTE AND
NORTHEASTERN CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 945 AM EDT...

At 919 AM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near Washington
Court House, moving southeast at 10 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
One half inch diameter hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Washington Court House, Sabina, Staunton, Good Hope, Rock Mills, New
Martinsburg and Jasper Mills.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3949 8367 3962 8352 3950 8328 3938 8348
TIME...MOT...LOC 1319Z 311DEG 8KT 3951 8353

Hickman

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
947 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

OHZ063-072-131415-
Fayette OH-Clinton OH-
947 AM EDT TUE JUN 13 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN FAYETTE AND EAST
CENTRAL CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 AM EDT...

At 946 AM EDT, radar indicated a strong thunderstorm east of
Sabina, moving southeast at 10 mph.

STORM HAZARDS INCLUDE...
Winds to 40 mph...
Penny size hail...
Very heavy rain...

Locations impacted include...
Washington Court House, Staunton, Good Hope, New Martinsburg, Jasper
Mills and Rock Mills.

Water will pond on roads and may quickly fill roadside ditches and
small streams.

Residents in these areas should remain alert. If this storm becomes
stronger, then a warning may be needed.

To report hazardous weather conditions, go to our website at
weather.gov/iln and submit your report via social media, when you can
do so safely.

LAT...LON 3938 8364 3949 8361 3953 8354 3950 8335
      3938 8337
TIME...MOT...LOC 1346Z 302DEG 11KT 3942 8353

Hickman