River Flood Advisory 2, NWS Wilmington, OH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
146 PM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances will increase as a cold front slowly
progresses southward through the Great Lakes today and into the
Ohio Valley tonight. In the very moist environment, some of the
storms may produce heavy rainfall. Rain chances will linger into
Friday, especially southeast of the I-71 corridor until the front
crosses in the afternoon. Slightly cooler and drier conditions are
anticipated for the weekend until later Sunday when the next
threat for thunderstorms occurs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Active weather has already been underway this morning, with a
band of WSW-to-ENE convection developing in the very moist air
mass (KILN 12Z sounding with a precipitable water value of 1.87").
With a wide array in simulated radar and QPF solutions from
various models this morning, predicting individual storm timing
appears like it will be difficult (if not impossible). Focusing
on the overall pattern, several things become clear. There is a
regime of low-level SW flow and deep-layer WSW flow, providing
a continued unimpeded feed of moisture into the region. As this
occurs, precipitable water values will probably continue to
slightly rise through the day (likely over 2") with very deep
(>4000m) warm cloud depths. While the surface cold front remains
well upstream, low level flow is broadly convergent over the
region, and there may be some degree of upper jet support --
though the jet across southern Michigan is sort of broad, the
northern Ohio Valley region is in a favorable quadrant.
Ultimately, the atmosphere favors a generally unimpeded
replenishing of moisture and instability, even in the face of
occasional early-day storms. Because of these factors, the
morning convection is not expected to disrupt the potential for
additional convection later today. There are slight indications
of somewhat of a break (or lessening in coverage) during the
early afternoon, before additional convection reacts to diurnal
heating and moisture advection/convergence by mid afternoon. To
no surprise, the flash flood threat is expected to continue
through the evening as the primary risk today. With moderate
instability, some severe storms are possible, mainly with a
damaging wind risk (especially if any forward propagating
segments can develop out of some stronger updrafts). However,
the unimpressive shear does not support large-scale storm
organization, which will likely limit the severe risk today to
isolated instances.

Previous discussion >
Mid level shortwave north of MN to dig slowly southeast across
the northern Great Lakes today into tonight. This will cause the
westerlies to settle south into the Ohio valley. 30kt low level
has developed in response to an embedded s/w in these
westerlies. This low level jet was resulting in a band of
thunderstorms that will track across ILN/s northern counties
early this morning. Additional storms will develop in the pre-
frontal environment late morning into the afternoon as blyr
instability of 2000-2500 j/kg develops. Precipitable water
values increase to above 2 inches, creating an environment for
very heavy rainfall rates. These high pw/s along with deep warm
cloud depth and favorable wind profile for back building storms
reinforces the potential for flash flooding. Therefore, have
continued the flash flood watch through late tonight. Regarding
the severe weather chances; the moderate instby combined with
25-30 kt effective bulk shear will result in organized multicell
storms with damaging winds being the primary threat. The main
The most likely timing for severe weather would be from early
afternoon through mid evening. Temperatures are expected to warm
to highs from the mid 80s north to 90 south. These temperatures
combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s will result
in heat indices in the mid and upper 90s across ILN/s southern
counties. Have continued the mention of these heat indices in
the HWO product.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Ongoing storms expected as we enter the tonight forecast
period. Axis of precipitable water values above 2 inches along
with moderate instability will settle south through ILN/s FA
during the early evening. Low level convergence ahead of an
approaching sfc cold front will continue to focus storms. Severe
threat to continue into the evening along with the threat for
flash flooding.

Storms chances continue but will be diminishing overnight due to
the slow movement of the front. By Friday morning pcpn winding
down over the nw with likely pops in the se counties. Temperatures
will be mild tonight with lows from near 70 northwest to the
lower 70s southeast.

A cold front expected to be bisecting the area early Friday
will push southeast across the area during the day as mid level
s/w pivots through the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue ahead of this front with likely pops
over the southeast diminishing to just a slight chance late in
the day. Highs on Friday are expected to range from near 80 nw
to the mid 80s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thunderstorms chances will linger in southeast counties Friday night
behind the departing cold front. Surface high pressure and dry air
pushed by a northwest upper flow are indicated for Saturday. A cold
front developing ahead of a closed upper low will drop south to the
Great Lakes on Sunday, providing a chance of thunderstorms across
northern locations. Thunderstorms will be possible areawide on
Monday when the upper low and front are forecast to progress farther
south to the Upper Ohio Valley. Dry weather is expected Tuesday and
Wednesday when models predict high pressure at the surface and
aloft.

Temperatures will start out below normal Saturday due to cold
advection, reaching the low 80s most locations. Near normal highs
around the mid 80s are expected Sunday through Tuesday, before
readings reach the upper 80s Wednesday, boosted by the warm
circulation around the high.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Chances for thunderstorms will be the main issue for the TAF
sites. Most of the airports have already been affected today,
and chances for storms will remain the highest over the next
several hours, before diminishing later in the evening. Storms
have been producing heavy rainfall, and IFR visibilities are
likely where storms occur.

As storm chances wane overnight, some MVFR ceilings are expected
to develop. These will likely persist into Friday morning,
before lifting to VFR.

Winds on Friday will eventually shift to the NNW behind a cold
front.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms through early Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ091>093.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...Hatzos/AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...Hatzos

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1002 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-060>065-
070>072-077-141415-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Hardin-
Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Delaware-Miami-Champaign-
Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-Montgomery-Greene-
Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-Clinton-Hamilton-
1002 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio and West Central
Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms are expected at times today and tonight. In addition to
the threat for flash flooding, some of these storms may become
severe, with a primary threat of damaging wind. The most likely
timing for severe weather will be from early afternoon through mid
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today, and spotters are encouraged
to report rainfall totals to the National Weather Service.

KYZ091>093-OHZ073-074-078>082-088-141415-
Boone-Kenton-Campbell-Ross-Hocking-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-
Pike-Scioto-
1002 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Northern Kentucky, Central
Ohio and Southwest Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms are expected at times today and tonight. In addition to
the threat for flash flooding, some of these storms may become
severe, with a primary threat of damaging wind. The most likely
timing for severe weather will be from early afternoon through mid
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will continue on Friday morning, ending by mid
afternoon. A few storms may produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today, and spotters are encouraged
to report rainfall totals to the National Weather Service.

INZ080-KYZ089-090-094>100-141415-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-
Mason-Lewis-
1002 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky and Northern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heat indices this afternoon will rise into the middle to upper 90s.

Thunderstorms are expected at times today and tonight. Some of these
storms may produce very heavy rainfall, which could lead to localized
flash flooding. In addition, some of these storms may become severe,
with a primary threat of damaging wind. The most likely timing for
severe weather will be from mid afternoon through late evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Thunderstorms will continue on Friday morning, ending by mid
afternoon. A few storms may produce heavy rainfall and gusty winds.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today, and spotters are encouraged
to report rainfall totals to the National Weather Service.

HATZOS

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