Flash Flood Warning 66, NWS Wilmington, OH

056 
WGUS71 KILN 131041
FFSILN

Flash Flood Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
641 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

OHC065-131215-
/O.CON.KILN.FF.W.0066.000000T0000Z-170713T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Hardin OH-
641 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR HARDIN COUNTY REMAINS IN EFFECT Until
815 AM EDT...

At 637 AM EDT, radar indicated that thunderstorms have produced 
heavy rain across the warned area. Up to three inches of rain have 
already fallen. Runoff from the excessive rain will cause flash 
flooding to persist. Law enforcement reported that several vehicles 
have become stranded near Dunkirk and Kenton.

Some locations that will experience flooding include...
Kenton, Ada, Forest, Dunkirk, Alger, Blanchard, Mcguffey, Patterson,
Dola, Grant, Huntersville, Pfeiffer, Walton, Hepburn and State Route
195 at State Route 235.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Move to higher ground now. Act quickly to protect your life. 

Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.

To report flash flooding, go to our website at weather.gov/iln and
submit your report via social media, when you can do so safely.

&&

LAT...LON 4082 8350 4070 8350 4070 8344 4069 8344
      4069 8342 4062 8342 4059 8388 4082 8388

$$

Coniglio

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
425 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Thunderstorm chances will increase as a cold front slowly
progresses southward through the Great Lakes today and into the
Ohio Valley tonight. In the very moist environment, some of the
storms may produce heavy rainfall. Rain chances will linger into
Friday, especially southeast of the I-71 corridor until the front
crosses in the afternoon. Slightly cooler and drier conditions are
anticipated for the weekend until later Sunday when the next
threat for thunderstorms occurs.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Mid level shortwave north of MN to dig slowly southeast across the
northern Great Lakes today into tonight. This will cause the
westerlies to settle south into the Ohio valley. 30kt low level
has developed in response to an embedded s/w in these
westerlies. This low level jet was resulting in a band of
thunderstorms that will track across ILN/s northern counties
early this morning. Additional storms will develop in the pre-
frontal environment late morning into the afternoon as blyr
instability of 2000-2500 j/kg develops. Precipitable water
values increase to above 2 inches, creating an environment for
very heavy rainfall rates. These high pw/s along with deep warm
cloud depth and favorable wind profile for back building storms
reinforces the potential for flash flooding. Therefore, have
continued the flash flood watch through late tonight. Regarding
the severe weather chances; the moderate instby combined with
25-30 kt effective bulk shear will result in organized
multicell storms with damaging winds being the primary threat.
The main The most likely timing for severe weather would be from
early afternoon through mid evening. Temperatures are expected
to warm to highs from the mid 80s north to 90 south. These
temperatures combined with dewpoints in the lower to middle 70s
will result in heat indices in the mid and upper 90s across
ILN/s southern counties. Have continued the mention of these
heat indices in the HWO product.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Ongoing storms expected as we enter the tonight forecast
period. Axis of precipitable water values above 2 inches along
with moderate instability will settle south through ILN/s FA
during the early evening. Low level convergence ahead of an
approaching sfc cold front will continue to focus storms. Severe
threat to continue into the evening along with the threat for
flash flooding.

Storms chances continue but will be diminishing overnight due to
the slow movement of the front. By Friday morning pcpn winding
down over the nw with likely pops in the se counties. Temperatures
will be mild tonight with lows from near 70 northwest to the
lower 70s southeast.

A cold front expected to be bisecting the area early Friday
will push southeast across the area during the day as mid level
s/w pivots through the Great Lakes. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms to continue ahead of this front with likely pops
over the southeast diminishing to just a slight chance late in
the day. Highs on Friday are expected to range from near 80 nw
to the mid 80s southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Thunderstorms chances will linger in southeast counties Friday night
behind the departing cold front. Surface high pressure and dry air
pushed by a northwest upper flow are indicated for Saturday. A cold
front developing ahead of a closed upper low will drop south to the
Great Lakes on Sunday, providing a chance of thunderstorms across
northern locations. Thunderstorms will be possible areawide on
Monday when the upper low and front are forecast to progress farther
south to the Upper Ohio Valley. Dry weather is expected Tuesday and
Wednesday when models predict high pressure at the surface and
aloft.

Temperatures will start out below normal Saturday due to cold
advection, reaching the low 80s most locations. Near normal highs
around the mid 80s are expected Sunday through Tuesday, before
readings reach the upper 80s Wednesday, boosted by the warm
circulation around the high.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low level jet which has developed in the westerly flow was
leading to some scattered thunderstorms across northern IN and
northern OH this morning. There is a chance that some of these
storms affect the northern TAF sites early but the majority of
this activity will stay to the north.

Moderate instability develops in the moist airmass ahead of a
southward moving cold front. Expect additional thunderstorm
development southward with time between 17Z and 00z. Have a
mention of MVFR CIGs at the northern TAF sites where probability
looks to be highest. Due to the very moist environment, brief
IFR vsbys are likely in the very heavy rain but it is too far
out to pin point at this time.

Thunderstorms to continue into this evening with a general
weakening trend overnight as instby decreases. Have prevailing
showers with VCTS. There is the potential for MVFR ceilings
toward the very end of the period but probability is too low
to place in the forecast at this time.

The pressure gradient will increase today with southwest wind
gust up to 20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Thunderstorms through early Friday.

&&

.ILN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for OHZ026-034-035-
     042>046-051>056-060>065-070>074-077>082-088.
KY...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for KYZ091>093.
IN...Flash Flood Watch through late tonight for INZ050-058-059-066-
     073>075.

&&

SYNOPSIS...AR
NEAR TERM...AR
SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM...Sites
AVIATION...AR

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
342 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-KYZ091>093-OHZ026-034-035-042>046-051>056-
060>065-070>074-077>082-088-140745-
Wayne-Fayette IN-Union IN-Franklin IN-Ripley-Dearborn-Ohio-Boone-
Kenton-Campbell-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-
Delaware-Miami-Champaign-Clark-Madison-Franklin OH-Licking-Preble-
Montgomery-Greene-Fayette OH-Pickaway-Fairfield-Butler-Warren-
Clinton-Ross-Hocking-Hamilton-Clermont-Brown-Highland-Adams-Pike-
Scioto-
342 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for East Central Indiana,
Southeast Indiana, Northern Kentucky, Central Ohio, Southwest Ohio
and West Central Ohio.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Flash Flood Watch.

Thunderstorms are expected at times on today into tonight. Some of
the storms may be severe, with the main threat being damaging winds.
The most likely timing for severe weather would be from early
afternoon through mid evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

INZ080-KYZ089-090-094>100-140745-
Switzerland-Carroll-Gallatin-Owen-Grant-Pendleton-Bracken-Robertson-
Mason-Lewis-
342 AM EDT Thu Jul 13 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Southeast Indiana, Northeast
Kentucky and Northern Kentucky.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heat indices on Thursday afternoon will rise into the middle to
upper 90s.

Thunderstorms are expected at times from late this afternoon through
early Friday morning. Some of these storms may be severe, with the
possibility of damaging winds. The most likely timing for severe
weather would be from mid afternoon through mid evening. Some of
these storms may also produce heavy rainfall, which could lead to
localized flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
428 AM EDT THU JUL 13 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0426 AM     FLOOD            ADA                     40.77N 83.82W
07/13/2017                   HARDIN             OH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGH WATER ON STATE ROUTE 81

&&

BC