Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
333 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This afternoon, a line of thunderstorms developed, as expected,
along a NE-SW oriented warm front that, at 2 PM, extended from
extreme Southeast Nebraska, through KGBD, then thru Southwest KS
where it curved sharply W into Southeast CO. The cold front will
continue to be a MAJOR player in the forecast for the rest of the
afternoon & tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This Evening:
A SHARP, positively-tilted upper-deck wave extends from along the
Saskatchewan/Manitoba border to the CO/NM border. As this intense
upper wave surges E tonight, the afore-mentioned warm front would
transition into a cold front & surge SE through the remainder of
Central & Southeast KS. The front should reach the KS Turnpike ~9
PM. SE of the front, a very warm, moist environment will combine
with steep lapse rates to induce significant destabilization
across the SE half of KS this afternoon & early evening. Bulk
shear is STRONG, & will likely reach 65-70kts close to the front &
MLCAPES from ~2,000-2,500 J/KG supercells are certain. Both large
hail (around ping pong ball-sized) & 60 to 70 mph winds are
anticipated. As the cold front surges SE, the primary threat would
be damaging winds as the bowing potential would increase. The
northwest winds in the wake of frontal passage are strong.
Sustained speeds from 25-35 mph with gusts ~45 mph are likely
across nearly all of Central & South-Central KS, especially from
7-11 PM. The Wind Advisory obviously remains intact.

Overnight:
With the SE-surging cold front surging crossing all of Southeast
KS 11PM-Mid Night all thunderstorms should clear Southeast KS 9-10
PM by which time only a few post-frontal showers should exist over
Southeast KS. NW 15-25 mph winds will continue to funnel much
cooler air into KS.

Sun-Tue Night:
All will be quiet across KS as strong high pressure spreads SE
across KS Sun & Sun Night. As the high ventures SE into the Mid-MS
Valley & Southern Plains lower-deck would quickly become S/SW to
enable temps to slowly rebound.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 335 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Wed-Fri:
Warm & dry weather will dominate as a strong & broad mid-upper
high pressure spreads E across most of the U.S.

Sat-Sat Night:
Any chances for thunderstorms (& they're low) should not arrive
until next Sat night.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

Scattered elevated thunderstorms will persist into mid-afternoon
from south-central into northeast Kansas. Isolated small hail and
gusty winds could accompany these storms.

A strong cold front from southeast nebraska to northwest Kansas,
will surge rapidly southward across the remainder of Kansas late
this afternoon and evening. South-southwesterly winds of 15-20
knots with gusts of 25-30 knots, will shift to northwesterly
behind the front. Strong northwesterly gusts of 35-45 knots will
affect central/south-central Kansas this evening, before peak
gusts diminish overnight. A quasi-linear band of strong-severe
storms is expected to develop with the frontal surge very late
this afternoon/evening, across south-central/southeast Kansas.
Damaging winds will be the main threat, with a lesser chance of
large hail.

IFR/MVFR ceilings over northwest/north-central Kansas early this
afternoon, may try to filter southward into central Kansas through
early this evening behind the front, although ceiling heights are
expected to improve.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    46  64  42  70 /  70   0   0   0
Hutchinson      43  63  40  70 /  40   0   0   0
Newton          44  62  41  69 /  60   0   0   0
ElDorado        45  63  41  69 /  70   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   47  64  41  69 /  70   0   0   0
Russell         40  64  39  73 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      40  64  39  72 /  10   0   0   0
Salina          42  63  40  72 /  30   0   0   0
McPherson       43  62  39  70 /  40   0   0   0
Coffeyville     50  64  41  69 /  90   0   0   0
Chanute         48  62  40  69 / 100   0   0   0
Iola            48  62  40  69 / 100   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    49  63  40  69 / 100   0   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 1 AM CDT Sunday for
KSZ032-033-047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

&&

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
510 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-152215-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
510 PM CDT Sat Oct 14 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central, South
Central and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Numerous thunderstorms, several of which may be severe with hail as
large as golf balls and 60 to 70 mph winds, are likely across most
of South-Central and all of Southeast Kansas this evening. For
further details, please refer to Severe Thunderstorm Watch number
500 that is effect until mid-night.

Any thunderstorms that occur in Central Kansas may produce penny-
sized hail and winds around 50 mph early this evening.

After cold frontal passage, northwest winds will greatly increase,
especially along and west of I-135 where 30 to 35 mph sustained
speeds with gusts from 45 to 50 mph are likely later this evening.
For further details, please refer to the Wind Advisory that remains
in effect for all of Central and most of South-Central Kansas from
7 PM until 1 AM CDT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
607 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0439 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S EL DORADO           37.79N 96.86W
10/14/2017                   BUTLER             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            DAMAGE TO A LARGE TREE, SEVERAL BRANCHES DOWN

&&

TAV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
613 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0608 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W SEVERY              37.62N 96.26W
10/14/2017  E70 MPH          GREENWOOD          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 60-70 MPH WINDS

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
637 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND DMG     9 S UDALL               37.26N 97.12W
10/14/2017                   COWLEY             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            POWER POLE SNAPPED

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
642 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 E TORONTO             37.80N 95.91W
10/14/2017  E80 MPH          WOODSON            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            70-80 MPH ESTIMATED

&&

MWM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
645 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WINFIELD                37.27N 96.97W
10/14/2017                   COWLEY             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            LARGE TREE SNAPPED

&&

MWM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
659 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

KSZ069-093-094-098-150045-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-Chautauqua KS-Elk KS-
659 PM CDT SAT OCT 14 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northeastern Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Chautauqua County in southeastern Kansas...
  Southwestern Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 745 PM CDT

* At 657 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Burden, or 6 miles northeast of
  Winfield...moving northeast at 60 mph.

wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Burden, Dexter, Grenola, Atlanta, Latham, Cambridge and Winfield
  City Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until midnight CDT for
south central and southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3713 9689 3734 9698 3765 9653 3761 9652
      3760 9652 3724 9639
TIME...MOT...LOC 2358Z 245DEG 54KT 3732 9686

CARUSO