Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

...Updated for Aviation Discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

Water vapor imagery shows upper trough swinging across the
northeast CONUS with a southern stream impulse approaching
southern NM. At the surface, a very moist airmass is in place
across the southern Plains into southern KS with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s. A weak convergence zone is setup south of I-70
in the Flint Hills where a couple storms have developed.

With an extremely unstable airmass and a weak boundary, should
see a storm or two continue over eastern KS into the early evening
hours. Meanwhile, the more widespread convection should occur
over southern Nebraska/northern KS tonight as afternoon high
Plains convection rolls southeast aided by increasing 850-700mb
moisture transport. Some of this activity my skirt locations along
and north of I-70 tonight with some of it lingering across
eastern KS Sun morning.

Another warm muggy day is expected Sun with current thinking the
mid to upper 70 dewpoints remain over southeast KS. Should see
another MCS Sun night along the baroclinic zone which will be
situated over Nebraska. Just like tonight, some of this activity
may try and flirt with northern portions of our forecast area with
the better chances northeast of the forecast area. Still good
model agreement that unseasonably strong shortwave energy will
track across the northern Plains and into the northern Mississippi
Valley Mon and into the Great Lakes Mon night. This will allow a
strong cold front to start pushing south. At the same time,
southern stream impulse approaching NM, will lift out across
western KS Mon-Mon evening. All of these features will combine to
produce widespread convection along the front Mon evening through
Tue morning. By Tue evening the front south be south of our
forecast area with much cooler and drier air spilling into KS.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 316 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

By Wed afternoon, deep upper trough will stretch from Quebec into
the northeast CONUS with nw flow aloft over the Plains. This will
keep well below normal temps in place through the work week along
with dry conditions. Highs Tue-Fri look to be around 10 degrees
below average as they top out in the low to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

A few isolated hit-or-miss thunderstorms will remain possible
overnight across southern KS, as a low-level jet impinges on a
subtle convectively induced boundary. Another cluster of
thunderstorms is expected to move east across generally northern
Kansas and Nebraska overnight, mainly north of I-70. Otherwise,
breezy south/southwest winds are expected Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    74  97  74  94 /  10  10  10  20
Hutchinson      73  97  73  93 /  10  10  10  30
Newton          73  96  73  92 /  10  10  10  30
ElDorado        73  96  73  92 /  10  10  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   75  97  74  94 /  20  10  10  20
Russell         70  98  72  93 /  20  10  20  30
Great Bend      71  97  73  92 /  10  10  20  30
Salina          72  98  74  94 /  20  10  20  40
McPherson       73  96  73  93 /  10  10  20  30
Coffeyville     74  94  73  93 /  20  10  20  20
Chanute         73  94  73  92 /  10  10  30  30
Iola            73  93  73  91 /  10  10  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    74  94  74  92 /  20  10  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...ADK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1039 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-210345-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1039 PM CDT Sat Aug 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few isolated hit-or-miss storms will impact portions of south
central and southeast Kansas overnight. The strongest activity will
be capable of quarter size hail, 60 mph winds and heavy rain.
Additionally, a cluster or two of storms is possible generally
north of Interstate 70. Winds to 55 mph, small hail and locally
heavy rain is possible with this activity.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Heat indices from 100 to 105 degrees are likely Sunday afternoon
and early evening across southern and especially southeast Kansas.

Storms are possible Sunday night into Monday for mainly central and
eastern Kansas, with storms becoming more numerous Monday night
into Tuesday, as a strong cold front moves through. At least some
strong storms with heavy rain appear possible with this activity.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
111 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

KSZ095-200715-
Wilson KS-
111 AM CDT SUN AUG 20 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 215 AM CDT

* At 110 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was tracking
  a strong thunderstorm with locally heavy rainfall 6 miles southwest
  of Fredonia...moving north at 10 mph.

Hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Fredonia, New Albany and Buxton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

These storms may produce ponding of water on roadways. Listen for
later statements or possible flood warnings...should the risk for
minor low-land flooding become more imminent.

&&

LAT...LON 3763 9596 3760 9565 3739 9575 3739 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 0611Z 195DEG 9KT 3745 9587

CARUSO