Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
337 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Tonight:
Highlight:
Flash flooding potential remains high for all of Southeast KS til
early Sun Morning.

This afternoon, a nearly stationary front curved sharply from the
Western OK Panhandle, to just N of KRSL, to between KICT & KEGT,
then across far Northeast OK. A SHARP SW-NE temperature gradient
exists along the front. While mid-afternoon temperatures in most
of KICT Country range from the lower 80s in Central & most of
South-Central KS to the upper 70s along the northeast corridor,
Harper, Kingman & Sumner counties have sky-rocketed to near 100.
The front will be a major factor in all facets of the forecast
tonight as thunderstorms will redevelop along the boundary as it
begins to lift NE (obviously as a warm front) as a weak mid-level
trof moves E from Southwest KS & Northwest OK. The warm front may
reach as far as I-70 late tonight. The airmass SW of the front is
destabilizing quickly. As such the redeveloping thunderstorms will
spread NE across most of the CWA later tonight. With the mid-level
trof scheduled to reach Northeast OK early Sun morning, the front
would pivot counter-clockwise and with the western segment pushing
SE (obviously as a cold front), thunderstorms would become most
concentrated across East & Southeast KS. The destabilizing airmass
coupled with the increased directional shear induced by the
approaching front spells the potential for severe thunderstorms in
most areas, especially this evening. With precipitable waters ~2
inches over Southeast KS, torrential rains are guaranteed across
Southeast KS as tonight progresses. WPC has kept a "Moderate Risk"
for excessive rainfall across Southeast KS & this definitely makes
sense. The inherited Flash Flood Watch has been extended W to Elk
& Chautauqua Counties. Watch duration is unchanged.

Sun & Sun Night:
With the SE-pushing cold front likely vacating Southeast KS Sunday
Night thunderstorms will decrease in a NW-SE manner. Highest PoPs
remain assigned to Southeast KS but again will decrease, most
notably Sun Afternoon.

Mon-Tue Night:
With a large surface high spreading E/SE from the Northern Plains
to the Great Lakes much cooler-than-normal weather will dominate.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Scattered thunderstorms remain in the forecast for most periods as
isentropic ascent, though fairly weak in most cases dominates. Mid
to upper support is lacking so most thunderstorms should behave.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Main Hazards: Thunderstorm potential and IFR/MVFR potential.

Isolated to scattered storms should develop across central/eastern
Kansas mid-late afternoon, with coverage of storms likely
increasing as they propagate southward into south-
central/southeast Kansas tonight. Most terminals except for RSL
will have at least a VCTS group this afternoon/evening, while ICT
and CNU will have a TEMPO +TSRA group this evening given higher
confidence in storm coverage in the south/southeast.

As low-level winds back to a north-northeasterly direction behind
the surface wave track overnight into Sunday morning, most short
term model data suggests stratus will develop across central
Kansas. Confidence is high in at least MVFR ceilings, but IFR is
certainly plausible at RSL and GBD.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  83  66  81 /  50  20  10  10
Hutchinson      67  81  63  80 /  50  10  10  10
Newton          66  80  63  79 /  50  20  10  10
ElDorado        68  82  64  79 /  60  30  10  10
Winfield-KWLD   70  86  66  83 /  70  30  20  10
Russell         64  81  62  78 /  30  10  10  20
Great Bend      65  81  62  78 /  40  10  10  20
Salina          66  81  63  80 /  50  10  10  10
McPherson       65  81  62  79 /  50  10  10  10
Coffeyville     71  84  67  82 /  90  60  40  20
Chanute         69  82  65  80 /  90  60  20  10
Iola            69  81  64  79 /  90  60  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  83  66  81 /  90  60  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ053-070>072-095-
096-099-100.

&&

SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...JMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1209 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-061715-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1209 PM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Isolated to scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to
develop this afternoon across the area. The main storm threats will
be large hail up to half dollar size and damaging wind gusts.

Storm coverage is expected to increase across south-central and
southeastern Kansas this evening into the overnight hours, while
diminishing in central Kansas. Severe weather will remain possible
during the evening hours with hail up to half dollar size, damaging
wind gusts, and torrential rainfall which may lead to flooding or
flash flooding problems. Please refer to the Flash Flood Watch in
effect for southeast Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon along
the areas of the I-70 corridor Monday afternoon. This thunderstorm
activity is not expected to be severe.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday through Friday
during the afternoon. This activity is not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A few storm spotters may be needed this afternoon and evening across
central, south-central, and southeast Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1103 AM CDT SAT AUG 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1102 AM     HEAVY RAIN       COTTONWOOD FALLS        38.37N 96.54W
08/05/2017  M2.00 INCH       CHASE              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            SINCE 4 THIS MORNING

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1208 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     HEAVY RAIN       2 N YATES CENTER        37.90N 95.74W
08/05/2017  M4.30 INCH       WOODSON            KS   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC PICTURE SENT VIA TWITTER OF RAIN GAUGE WITH 4.3
            INCHES OF RAIN THROUGH NOON.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
127 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       4 E CHANUTE             37.67N 95.39W
08/05/2017  M3.65 INCH       NEOSHO             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL TOTAL FOR THIS EVENT SO FAR.

1230 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ERIE                    37.57N 95.24W
08/05/2017  E4.00 INCH       NEOSHO             KS   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA FACEBOOK OF TOTAL FROM THIS EVENT.

0115 PM     HEAVY RAIN       HUMBOLDT                37.81N 95.44W
08/05/2017  M5.40 INCH       ALLEN              KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            RAINFALL TOTAL SINCE 7 THIS MORNING

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
355 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0351 PM     FLOOD            ERIE                    37.57N 95.24W
08/05/2017                   NEOSHO             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

            STREET FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN THE TOWN OF ERIE. THE
            OBSERVER MEASURED 4.04 INCHES OF RAINFALL FROM 7 AM
            THROUGH NOON TODAY.

&&

JMC

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
358 PM CDT SAT AUG 05 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0356 PM     HEAVY RAIN       ERIE                    37.57N 95.24W
08/05/2017  M4.04 INCH       NEOSHO             KS   CO-OP OBSERVER

&&

JMC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
411 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

KSZ069-093-052145-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-
411 PM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southwestern Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 445 PM CDT

* At 409 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Douglass...moving northeast at
  40 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Rose Hill, Douglass, Udall, Atlanta and Rock.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issued by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3749 9715 3749 9716 3756 9715 3769 9693
      3743 9675 3737 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2110Z 238DEG 34KT 3749 9710

LAWSON