Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
710 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Main challenge for today will be sky cover that remains from the
convective debris from this mornings convection. Moisture
transport is still very strong ahead of the approaching warm
front. This leaves the high temperatures in question for today.
The southwestern portions of the CWA appear to have a good chance
for low 90s today while the northeastern as of the CWA will see
lower to mid 80s. Afternoon highs will be highly depending on how
much cloud cover will be present during the day today. Some areas
may be several degrees cooler or warmer depending on the density
of the cloud cover today. Additionally, the strong moisture
transport, shear and approaching front will create a rather
active weather day for today. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and east of I-35 during the afternoon.
Some areas of Southeast Kansas are likely to receive some very
heavy rain and localized flooding. Some severe thunderstorms are
also possible during the initial stages of the thunderstorm
activity. As the afternoon transitions into evening, the severe
weather threat will diminish some and transition to a wind and
rain threat. The heaviest rain is expected during the overnight
period into Sunday morning. Once the cold front come through the
region during the morning hours Sunday, the rain threat will
diminish and cooler temperatures will return the region.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 143 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

The cold front will stall in Oklahoma which will keep northerly
flow over the region. This will keep the temperatures well below
normal for much of the weak. With the front in close proximity,
rain chances will remain relatively high. The best chance for
shower and thunderstorm activity will be Thursday into Friday as
moisture transport returns. Temperatures will slowly rise through
the week but will remain below normal as return flow will not be
able to take hold until next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 707 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

Strong warm advection has led to widespread showers and
thunderstorms over most of ern KS this morning. So will go with
prevailing -SHRA/VCTS for the KCNU taf site for the morning hours.

Expect this round of showers to move east by late this morning, with
some uncertainty on timing of SHRA/TSRA redeveloping for the
afternoon hours, especially for areas east of I-135, as the warm
front remains over ern KS. Will go with VCTS for most of the TAFs
east of I-135 (KSLN/KCNU and KICT) for the evening hours, as
atmosphere recovers enough for renewed convection. Some
uncertainty on how far west to go with the convective chances, but
think along and east of the KS Turnpike appears likely.

A cold front will begin to push into central KS tonight, with some
post frontal MVFR cigs expected.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  69  83  66 /  40  70  20  10
Hutchinson      89  66  81  63 /  40  60  10  10
Newton          86  66  80  62 /  50  70  20  10
ElDorado        86  68  81  63 /  50  70  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   91  70  85  66 /  40  60  30  10
Russell         90  64  79  61 /  30  40  10  10
Great Bend      91  65  80  62 /  30  40  10  10
Salina          84  64  80  62 /  50  60  10  10
McPherson       87  65  80  62 /  50  70  10  10
Coffeyville     86  71  84  66 /  50  80  60  20
Chanute         82  69  82  64 /  60  70  60  10
Iola            80  68  81  63 /  60  80  60  10
Parsons-KPPF    85  70  83  66 /  60  80  60  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Sunday morning for KSZ071-072-096.

&&

SHORT TERM...ELM
LONG TERM...ELM
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
535 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-061045-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
535 AM CDT Sat Aug 5 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
tonight mainly along and east of the Flint Hills. Large hail up to
half dollars and 60 mph winds are the main concern during the
afternoon and evening hours.

As the evening progresses, the severe weather threat will diminish,
but heavy rainfall from thunderstorms may produce localized
flooding overnight tonight into early Sunday morning, mainly for
areas over the Flint Hills and southeast Kansas. The greatest threat
exists over far eastern Kansas where a Flash Flood Watch is in
effect. See that statement for more details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Monday afternoon along
the areas of the I-70 corridor Monday afternoon. This thunderstorm
activity is not expected to be severe.

Showers and thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday through Friday
during the afternoon. This activity is not expected to be severe.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated today or tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
405 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

KSZ069-051000-
Butler KS-
405 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 500 AM CDT

* At 402 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Towanda...moving northeast at
  25 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  El Dorado, Augusta, Towanda, Leon, Latham, Rosalia, El Dorado
  Airport, El Dorado Lake, El Dorado State Park and Beaumont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The storms are not expected to become severe.

&&

LAT...LON 3748 9687 3790 9705 3805 9653 3756 9653
TIME...MOT...LOC 0904Z 233DEG 21KT 3776 9692

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
451 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

KSZ070-094-051045-
Greenwood KS-Elk KS-
451 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...
  Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 545 AM CDT

* At 449 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 19 miles
  east of Burns to near Grenola...and moving east at 35 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Eureka, Madison, Howard, Moline, Longton, Hamilton, Severy,
  Grenola, Fall River, Elk Falls, Climax, Virgil, Eureka City Lake,
  Thrall, Eureka Airport, Fall River State Park, Fall River Lake and
  Piedmont.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms are not expected to become severe.

&&

LAT...LON 3817 9598 3730 9597 3731 9652 3808 9649
      3808 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 0951Z 264DEG 32KT 3802 9654 3729 9642

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
548 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

KSZ070-094-051145-
Greenwood KS-Elk KS-
548 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern Greenwood County in southeastern Kansas...
  Elk County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 645 AM CDT

* At 546 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 8 miles west of Severy, or 9 miles
  northwest of Howard...moving east at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Howard, Moline, Longton, Severy, Grenola, Fall River, Elk Falls,
  Fall River Lake, Piedmont and Fall River State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The storms are not expected to become severe.

&&

LAT...LON 3731 9652 3765 9652 3774 9597 3730 9597
      3730 9625
TIME...MOT...LOC 1048Z 260DEG 22KT 3758 9636

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
646 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

KSZ095-051245-
Wilson KS-
646 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 745 AM CDT

* At 644 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Neodesha...moving east at 30
  mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Neodesha, Fredonia, Altoona, Benedict, New Albany and Buxton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The storms are not expected to become severe.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9595 3763 9595 3773 9554 3746 9552
      3739 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 1146Z 256DEG 25KT 3744 9579

KETCHAM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
746 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

KSZ071-095-096-051315-
Wilson KS-Woodson KS-Neosho KS-
746 AM CDT SAT AUG 5 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Wilson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...
  Neosho County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 815 AM CDT

* At 745 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 6 miles
  northeast of Toronto to near Parsons...and moving east at 55 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Chanute, Neodesha, Yates Center, Erie, St. Paul, Thayer, Altoona,
  Buffalo, Galesburg, Benedict, Stark, Earlton, Lake Parsons,
  Batesville, Rose, Chanute Airport and South Mound.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms are not expected to become severe.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9510 3740 9576 3802 9595 3802 9568
      3773 9554 3772 9511
TIME...MOT...LOC 1246Z 274DEG 46KT 3787 9588 3740 9529

KETCHAM