Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1128 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Tonight:
Convective debris and MCV over OK is complicating forecast.
Convective debris has limited warmup over parts of the area. NAM
had the best handle on MCV and will give it the nod out of the
box. This suggest some storms will develop near OK border late
afternoon/evening, which is reasonable given moisture gradient in
the vicinity of OK border evident in ACARs and radiosonde
observations. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows around 2000 j/kg ML
CAPE and around 3000 j/kg surface CAPE with little inhibition.
However convergence so far has been lacking and will likely be
dependent on outflow/convection from OK MCV. With storms
anticipated over High Plains this evening, seems reasonable that
some storms will make it into at least western sections towards
daybreak.

Monday:
Morning is a bit tricky with uncertain coverage of precipitation/
debris from High Plains convection. Models are struggling with
many variations on gradients and even wind direction. Shotgun
approach with low pops seems most prudent at this point with a
slight nudge toward the NAM which make have the right idea but a
bit overdone. Also a bit concerned convective instability will not
be realized in the afternoon due to extensive clouds if NAM verifies.

Monday night:
NAM GFS and ECMWF all show MCS working across the the area during
this period. Timing/location varies, but certainly justifies the
higher pops portended by initialization grids.

Independence day:
With remnant of MCS over the area and lingering/perturbed upper
flow, forecast is increasing difficult. If strong MCS develops,
more likely that area will be stabilized in its wake with lower
chances of severe weather. At the opposite extreme, GFS shows
triple point near Harper County in the early afternoon. If NAM
verifies, little precipitation would be anticipated in the evening
as airmass stabilizes in the wake of the MCS. -Howerton

Wednesday:
With exception of NAM, which pushes effective boundary out of the
area, precipitation chances continue on Wednesday along outflow
boundary/front in Southeast KS. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Drier and warmer weather is forecast on Thursday-Friday as
western US upper ridge builds into the Plains. ECMWF suggest that
front will backdoor into the region on Friday and hang out in the
area through the weekend....hence the periodic low pops in
initialization grids. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

A complex of strong-severe storms over northwest Kansas late this
evening, will likely continue propagating southeastward overnight,
affecting the central Kansas terminals. Strong wind gusts >40
knots will be the main threat, along with transient reductions in
visibilities in downpours. Will use tempo +TSRA groups at RSL and
GBD overnight, with VCTS at SLN and HUT for now. The storms may
weaken early Monday morning over central/eastern Kansas, possibly
regenerating toward midday into the afternoon further east, given
a remnant MCV circulation from the overnight complex.

Other storms are likely to form over the high Plains Monday
afternoon/evening, translating slowly eastward across Kansas
Monday night. Some of this convection could reach the
central/south-central KS terminals during the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  89  70  88 /  20  20  60  30
Hutchinson      70  90  68  88 /  20  20  50  30
Newton          69  88  68  86 /  20  20  60  40
ElDorado        70  87  69  86 /  20  30  60  40
Winfield-KWLD   70  88  70  88 /  20  30  60  40
Russell         67  90  66  90 /  60  30  50  10
Great Bend      67  90  66  89 /  50  20  50  10
Salina          71  92  69  89 /  20  30  50  30
McPherson       69  90  67  87 /  20  30  50  30
Coffeyville     69  88  70  87 /  40  40  60  50
Chanute         69  87  69  85 /  20  40  60  50
Iola            69  87  69  85 /  20  40  50  50
Parsons-KPPF    70  87  70  86 /  30  40  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...JMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1138 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-040445-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1138 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A storm complex over northwest Kansas is expected to move
southeastward into central and possibly south-central Kansas
overnight. The main threats from the strongest storms will be
wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, small hail, and downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There will be multiple chances of storms through at least Wednesday
across the area. Some of the storms will be severe during the
afternoon and evening, on both Monday and possibly Tuesday.
Microbursts with wind gusts to 65 mph are the main threat, but
isolated quarter to golfball sized hail is also possible. Heavy
rainfall is also possible in southern Kansas late Monday night or
early Tuesday which may cause some localized flooding. Additional
storms are possible starting Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

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