Severe Thunderstorm Warning 184, NWS Wichita, KS

254 
WWUS53 KICT 030528
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1228 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

KSC105-167-030630-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-170703T0630Z/
Lincoln KS-Russell KS-
1228 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

At 1228 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Downs to near Natoma to 5 miles north of
Yocemento, moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Russell, Lucas, Gorham, Sylvan Grove, Luray, Dorrance, Barnard,
Milberger, Bunker Hill, Paradise, Waldo, Ash Grove, Russell Airport,
Wilson State Park and Wilson Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3876 9864 3870 9904 3913 9904
      3913 9849 3922 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0528Z 313DEG 31KT 3950 9862 3916 9896 3899 9942 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MCGUIRE

750 
WWUS53 KICT 030553
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1253 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

KSC105-167-030630-
/O.CON.KICT.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-170703T0630Z/
Lincoln KS-Russell KS-
1253 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 130 AM CDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND RUSSELL COUNTIES...

At 1253 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Tipton to 7 miles southwest of Luray to Toulon,
moving southeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees. 

Locations impacted include...
Russell, Lucas, Gorham, Sylvan Grove, Luray, Dorrance, Barnard,
Milberger, Bunker Hill, Paradise, Waldo, Ash Grove, Russell Airport,
Wilson State Park and Wilson Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3876 9864 3870 9904 3913 9904
      3913 9849 3922 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0553Z 313DEG 31KT 3936 9843 3902 9877 3885 9923 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

MCGUIRE

661 
WWUS53 KICT 030629
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
129 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

KSC105-167-030638-
/O.EXP.KICT.SV.W.0184.000000T0000Z-170703T0630Z/
Lincoln KS-Russell KS-
129 AM CDT MON JUL 3 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LINCOLN AND
RUSSELL COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 130 AM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty winds
and heavy rain are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3922 9793 3876 9864 3870 9904 3913 9904
      3913 9849 3922 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 0628Z 313DEG 31KT 3916 9816 3882 9850 3865 9896 

$$

MCGUIRE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1128 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Tonight:
Convective debris and MCV over OK is complicating forecast.
Convective debris has limited warmup over parts of the area. NAM
had the best handle on MCV and will give it the nod out of the
box. This suggest some storms will develop near OK border late
afternoon/evening, which is reasonable given moisture gradient in
the vicinity of OK border evident in ACARs and radiosonde
observations. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows around 2000 j/kg ML
CAPE and around 3000 j/kg surface CAPE with little inhibition.
However convergence so far has been lacking and will likely be
dependent on outflow/convection from OK MCV. With storms
anticipated over High Plains this evening, seems reasonable that
some storms will make it into at least western sections towards
daybreak.

Monday:
Morning is a bit tricky with uncertain coverage of precipitation/
debris from High Plains convection. Models are struggling with
many variations on gradients and even wind direction. Shotgun
approach with low pops seems most prudent at this point with a
slight nudge toward the NAM which make have the right idea but a
bit overdone. Also a bit concerned convective instability will not
be realized in the afternoon due to extensive clouds if NAM verifies.

Monday night:
NAM GFS and ECMWF all show MCS working across the the area during
this period. Timing/location varies, but certainly justifies the
higher pops portended by initialization grids.

Independence day:
With remnant of MCS over the area and lingering/perturbed upper
flow, forecast is increasing difficult. If strong MCS develops,
more likely that area will be stabilized in its wake with lower
chances of severe weather. At the opposite extreme, GFS shows
triple point near Harper County in the early afternoon. If NAM
verifies, little precipitation would be anticipated in the evening
as airmass stabilizes in the wake of the MCS. -Howerton

Wednesday:
With exception of NAM, which pushes effective boundary out of the
area, precipitation chances continue on Wednesday along outflow
boundary/front in Southeast KS. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

Drier and warmer weather is forecast on Thursday-Friday as
western US upper ridge builds into the Plains. ECMWF suggest that
front will backdoor into the region on Friday and hang out in the
area through the weekend....hence the periodic low pops in
initialization grids. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1111 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

A complex of strong-severe storms over northwest Kansas late this
evening, will likely continue propagating southeastward overnight,
affecting the central Kansas terminals. Strong wind gusts >40
knots will be the main threat, along with transient reductions in
visibilities in downpours. Will use tempo +TSRA groups at RSL and
GBD overnight, with VCTS at SLN and HUT for now. The storms may
weaken early Monday morning over central/eastern Kansas, possibly
regenerating toward midday into the afternoon further east, given
a remnant MCV circulation from the overnight complex.

Other storms are likely to form over the high Plains Monday
afternoon/evening, translating slowly eastward across Kansas
Monday night. Some of this convection could reach the
central/south-central KS terminals during the evening hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  89  70  88 /  20  20  60  30
Hutchinson      70  90  68  88 /  20  20  50  30
Newton          69  88  68  86 /  20  20  60  40
ElDorado        70  87  69  86 /  20  30  60  40
Winfield-KWLD   70  88  70  88 /  20  30  60  40
Russell         67  90  66  90 /  60  30  50  10
Great Bend      67  90  66  89 /  50  20  50  10
Salina          71  92  69  89 /  20  30  50  30
McPherson       69  90  67  87 /  20  30  50  30
Coffeyville     69  88  70  87 /  40  40  60  50
Chanute         69  87  69  85 /  20  40  60  50
Iola            69  87  69  85 /  20  40  50  50
Parsons-KPPF    70  87  70  86 /  30  40  60  50

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...JMC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1138 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-040445-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1138 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A storm complex over northwest Kansas is expected to move
southeastward into central and possibly south-central Kansas
overnight. The main threats from the strongest storms will be
wind gusts of 50 to 60 mph, small hail, and downpours.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

There will be multiple chances of storms through at least Wednesday
across the area. Some of the storms will be severe during the
afternoon and evening, on both Monday and possibly Tuesday.
Microbursts with wind gusts to 65 mph are the main threat, but
isolated quarter to golfball sized hail is also possible. Heavy
rainfall is also possible in southern Kansas late Monday night or
early Tuesday which may cause some localized flooding. Additional
storms are possible starting Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
713 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

KSZ100-030045-
Labette KS-
713 PM CDT SUN JUL 2 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southeastern Labette County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 745 PM CDT

* At 712 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles southwest of Chetopa...
  moving northeast at 40 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Oswego, Chetopa and Bartlett.

LAT...LON 3700 9544 3721 9508 3700 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0013Z 245DEG 33KT 3698 9521

MCGUIRE