Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1203 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Forecast highlights focus around thunderstorm chances this
afternoon through Friday evening, with periodic storm chances
Sunday through next week.

A few different areas of storm initiation are possible this
afternoon/evening. The first and most immediate concern is along a
stalled outflow boundary oriented east-west across east-
central/southeast KS westward into south-central KS. Initiation
may also be aided by a gravity wave/bore evident on visible
satellite approaching from the northwest. The best potential for
initiation is probably further east across eastern KS under
slightly cooler 700mb temperatures and better convergence. If
updrafts can breach the cap, strong instability coupled with
decent deep layer shear will support severe weather with any
activity that can develop. Main threats are large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given ample effective storm-relative
helicity along/north of the boundary along with favorable cloud
heights, cannot rule out a tornado threat with any storm that
becomes anchored along the boundary, which is plausible given mid-
level flow oriented parallel to the boundary.

This evening as the low-level jet increases, thinking
thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage in the vicinity of
the boundary across portions of central, south-central and
southeast KS, with a continued threat for large hail and damaging
winds, along with locally heavy rain. In addition, storms should
initiate across western KS/eastern CO/central NE, within zone of
moist/unstable upslope flow ahead of approaching shortwave energy
and associated cold frontal zone. This activity will likely grow
upscale into a thunderstorm complex/squall line or two and
progress into central, south-central and southeast KS overnight,
with a continued damaging wind threat and isolated large hail,
along with locally heavy rain. The heavy rain and flooding threat
could be enhanced across southern/south-central KS later tonight,
as there are signs for a potential back-building thunderstorm
complex due to the west-east oriented frontal zone and pool of
instability to the south/southwest. This activity could linger
past sunrise across southern KS.

Storm chances Friday will be contingent on how far south the
convectively enhanced frontal zone will surge tonight and early
Friday. Suspect it'll surge into OK, where the highest threat for
severe weather will be during the afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, expecting the potential for scattered non-severe
showers/storms Friday afternoon-evening, as lift increases ahead
of an approaching shortwave.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Quiet weather is expected Saturday, with no precipitation in the
forecast and highs in the 80s.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will be in the forecast Sunday
through next week, as an unsettled weather pattern returns to Mid-
America. This includes the 4th of July. Organized severe weather
appears low given the expected weaker flow aloft, although ample
instability will favor pockets of strong to marginally severe
storms, along with locally heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1201 AM CDT Fri Jun 30 2017

A line of showers and storms will spread south and east across the
area during the early morning hours. Transient MVFR/IFR will
develop under the heaviest activity but quickly return to VFR. The
line of storms may be capable of 40-50+ knot winds as it develops
across south central KS. A cold front will clear the area late
tonight and through the morning hours on Fri with breezy northeast
winds prevailing in it's wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  84  64  88 /  70  40  20  10
Hutchinson      68  84  61  89 /  80  30  20   0
Newton          67  82  62  87 /  70  30  20   0
ElDorado        68  82  62  86 /  80  40  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   69  85  64  87 /  80  50  30  10
Russell         65  84  60  89 /  50  30  20   0
Great Bend      66  83  60  89 /  60  30  20   0
Salina          67  84  62  90 /  80  30  20   0
McPherson       67  83  60  89 /  80  30  20   0
Coffeyville     69  85  65  87 /  70  80  50  10
Chanute         69  84  64  86 /  70  50  40  10
Iola            68  84  63  86 /  80  50  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    69  85  65  87 /  70  70  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
855 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
855 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A complex of of strong and severe storms will move southeast across
Kansas tonight. The primary threats will be damaging winds and heavy
rain with localized flooding possible. A few reports of large hail
may also be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong to severe storms remain possible Friday afternoon over
far southern Kansas, although better chances will be further south
across Oklahoma.

After a break Saturday, periodic chances for storms will return to
the area from Sunday through next week. While organized severe
weather is unlikely, strong to marginally severe storms and heavy
rainfall are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters may be needed this evening over east-central Kansas,
and areawide overnight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
131 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 AM     TSTM WND GST     4 NE WALDRON            37.03N 98.13W
06/30/2017  E55 MPH          HARPER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

METZGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
142 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

KSZ091-092-300715-
Harper KS-Sumner KS-
142 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Harper County in south central Kansas...
  Southwestern Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 215 AM CDT

* At 141 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 5 miles
  northeast of Anthony to 7 miles west of Caldwell...and moving east
  at 55 mph.

wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Anthony, Harper, Caldwell, Argonia, Milan, Bluff City, Danville,
  Freeport, Runnymede and Crystal Springs.

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
south central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3700 9790 3729 9822 3739 9786 3739 9781
      3740 9781 3701 9738
TIME...MOT...LOC 0641Z 269DEG 48KT 3722 9797 3701 9774

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
148 AM CDT FRI JUN 30 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0122 AM     TSTM WND GST     6 ENE BLUFF CITY        37.11N 97.76W
06/30/2017  E60 MPH          SUMNER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

METZGER

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