Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Forecast highlights focus around thunderstorm chances this
afternoon through Friday evening, with periodic storm chances
Sunday through next week.

A few different areas of storm initiation are possible this
afternoon/evening. The first and most immediate concern is along a
stalled outflow boundary oriented east-west across east-
central/southeast KS westward into south-central KS. Initiation
may also be aided by a gravity wave/bore evident on visible
satellite approaching from the northwest. The best potential for
initiation is probably further east across eastern KS under
slightly cooler 700mb temperatures and better convergence. If
updrafts can breach the cap, strong instability coupled with
decent deep layer shear will support severe weather with any
activity that can develop. Main threats are large hail and
damaging winds. In addition, given ample effective storm-relative
helicity along/north of the boundary along with favorable cloud
heights, cannot rule out a tornado threat with any storm that
becomes anchored along the boundary, which is plausible given mid-
level flow oriented parallel to the boundary.

This evening as the low-level jet increases, thinking
thunderstorm activity will increase in coverage in the vicinity of
the boundary across portions of central, south-central and
southeast KS, with a continued threat for large hail and damaging
winds, along with locally heavy rain. In addition, storms should
initiate across western KS/eastern CO/central NE, within zone of
moist/unstable upslope flow ahead of approaching shortwave energy
and associated cold frontal zone. This activity will likely grow
upscale into a thunderstorm complex/squall line or two and
progress into central, south-central and southeast KS overnight,
with a continued damaging wind threat and isolated large hail,
along with locally heavy rain. The heavy rain and flooding threat
could be enhanced across southern/south-central KS later tonight,
as there are signs for a potential back-building thunderstorm
complex due to the west-east oriented frontal zone and pool of
instability to the south/southwest. This activity could linger
past sunrise across southern KS.

Storm chances Friday will be contingent on how far south the
convectively enhanced frontal zone will surge tonight and early
Friday. Suspect it'll surge into OK, where the highest threat for
severe weather will be during the afternoon and evening.
Otherwise, expecting the potential for scattered non-severe
showers/storms Friday afternoon-evening, as lift increases ahead
of an approaching shortwave.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 317 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

Quiet weather is expected Saturday, with no precipitation in the
forecast and highs in the 80s.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will be in the forecast Sunday
through next week, as an unsettled weather pattern returns to Mid-
America. This includes the 4th of July. Organized severe weather
appears low given the expected weaker flow aloft, although ample
instability will favor pockets of strong to marginally severe
storms, along with locally heavy rain.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 632 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

An isolated storm or two may develop in the Wichita vicinity this
evening, otherwise more widespread storm activity is expected
later this evening and tonight as a complex of storms rolls east
off the high plains and other storms develop along the nose of a
LLJ. Flight categories may be reduced to MVFR/IFR under the
heaviest activity. A cold front will clear the area late tonight
and through the morning hours on Fri with breezy northeast winds
prevailing in it's wake.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    69  84  64  88 /  70  40  20  10
Hutchinson      68  84  61  89 /  60  30  20   0
Newton          67  82  62  87 /  70  30  20   0
ElDorado        68  82  62  86 /  70  40  20  10
Winfield-KWLD   69  85  64  87 /  70  50  30  10
Russell         65  84  60  89 /  70  30  20   0
Great Bend      66  83  60  89 /  70  30  20   0
Salina          67  84  62  90 /  60  30  20   0
McPherson       67  83  60  89 /  60  30  20   0
Coffeyville     69  85  65  87 /  60  50  50  10
Chanute         69  84  64  86 /  60  50  40  10
Iola            68  84  63  86 /  60  50  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    69  85  65  87 /  60  50  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
500 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-302200-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
500 PM CDT Thu Jun 29 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A few isolated thunderstorms are possible across east-central Kansas
through about mid-evening, with storm chances gradually increasing
during the evening and overnight hours areawide. The primary
threats will be large hail, damaging winds and heavy rainfall with
localized flooding. The hail threat will gradually decline by late
evening and overnight. Additionally, a tornado or two cannot be
ruled out before 10 pm.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

A few strong to severe storms remain possible Friday afternoon over
far southern Kansas, although better chances will be further south
across Oklahoma.

After a break Saturday, periodic chances for storms will return to
the area from Sunday through next week. While organized severe
weather is unlikely, strong to marginally severe storms and heavy
rainfall are possible.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Storm spotters may be needed this evening over east-central Kansas,
and areawide overnight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
643 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

KSZ071-300015-
Woodson KS-
643 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northwestern Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 715 PM CDT

* At 642 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Gridley, or 11 miles northwest
  of Yates Center...moving east at 25 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
  Woodson County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issues by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3794 9564 3793 9595 3804 9595 3804 9564
TIME...MOT...LOC 2343Z 271DEG 22KT 3802 9586

LAWSON

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
723 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

KSZ071-300100-
Woodson KS-
723 PM CDT THU JUN 29 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Woodson County in southeastern Kansas...

* Until 800 PM CDT

* At 721 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles southwest of Le Roy, or 9
  miles north of Yates Center...moving east at 15 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Neosho Falls and Piqua.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issues by the National Weather
Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3792 9584 3804 9585 3804 9554 3794 9552
      3791 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0023Z 270DEG 13KT 3801 9573

LAWSON