Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
630 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

The main challenge/concern is the trend/coverage in
convection today across the area and potential for locally
strong/severe storms and heavy rainfall. Mesoscale outflow has
masked the effective surface front with the boundary briefly
moving south into north central Oklahoma. Since midnight, a
southeast flow has returned north across the Kansas border at
Winfield. The effective surface front is expected to become better
defined a bit further north today from south central into east
central Kansas. The latest RAP/HRRR support the ongoing convection
across southeast Kansas early this morning where elevated CAPE
values around 1000 j/kg will reside through sunrise in a region of
modest moisture transport. Even modest surface heating in the
presence of weak to little capping today along/south of the front is
expected to result in a quick renewal or increase in convection,
becoming quite numerous across the area by the afternoon. A visibly
evident shortwave upper trof in the water vapor imagery over the
southern Rockies early this morning will also lift northeast across
the area by this afternoon. While lower level wind fields will be
weaker, overall deep layer shear will increase in the modest warm
sector where MLCAPE values could approach 2000 j/kg. This should
support a few severe storms mainly along/southeast of the Kansas
turnpike. Periodic heavy rainfall will also remain possible across
much of the area, even on the cool side of the front across central
Kansas. The upper low will begin to open up and lift out across the
central/northern Plains on Saturday. A brisk and cooler northwest
surface flow will prevail with any lingering showers diminishing
or exiting the area by the afternoon. The weekend is expected to
finish out dry and seasonably mild on Sunday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

A significant upper trof rotating around the large scale upper low
over western Ontario will drop southeast across the Upper Midwest
Monday, amplifying the mean eastern CONUS trof as it sweeps south
and east across the Mississippi Valley through mid-week. This will
bring a chance for precip followed by much cooler air to the area.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri May 19 2017

Widespread LIFR/IFR was observed with low cigs and visibilities in
the wake of a cold front bisecting the area this morning.
Conditions are expected to prevail through much if not all of the
day north of the front, while ceilings may lift some along and
south of the front before showers and storms become more numerous
by 16-18z or so. LIFR/IFR may return tonight as precipitation
begins to diminish from west to east. Breezy northeast winds shift
to the northwest as drier air filters across the area late
tonight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  51  65  47 /  80  70  10   0
Hutchinson      67  48  63  45 /  80  70  10   0
Newton          70  49  62  46 /  80  70  10   0
ElDorado        73  52  64  46 /  80  80  20   0
Winfield-KWLD   75  53  66  47 /  80  80  10   0
Russell         59  43  60  43 /  70  60  20   0
Great Bend      61  44  61  44 /  70  60  10   0
Salina          65  48  61  44 /  80  80  20   0
McPherson       66  48  62  44 /  80  70  10   0
Coffeyville     79  60  69  48 /  80  80  30  10
Chanute         78  59  67  47 /  80  80  30  10
Iola            77  58  67  47 /  80  80  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    78  59  68  48 /  80  80  30  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...MWM

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1028 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

KSZ091>093-191615-
Harper KS-Cowley KS-Sumner KS-
1028 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Harper County in south central Kansas...
  Western Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Sumner County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1115 AM CDT

* At 1027 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 7 miles
  east of Amorita to 6 miles west of Renfrow to Deer Creek...and
  moving northeast at 45 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Arkansas City, Winfield, Wellington, Anthony, Belle Plaine, Conway
  Springs, Caldwell, Oxford, Udall, Argonia, South Haven, Geuda
  Springs, Mayfield, Milan, Hunnewell, Bluff City, Danville, Waldron,
  Freeport and Riverdale.

LAT...LON 3700 9821 3739 9793 3739 9781 3745 9781
      3747 9775 3748 9737 3737 9686 3700 9712
TIME...MOT...LOC 1528Z 211DEG 39KT 3692 9817 3692 9778 3681 9755

JAKUB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1115 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

KSZ068-069-083-092-093-191700-
Butler KS-Cowley KS-Harvey KS-Sumner KS-Sedgwick KS-
1115 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Northwestern Cowley County in south central Kansas...
  Southern Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Northern Sumner County in south central Kansas...
  Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until noon CDT

* At 1113 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking strong thunderstorms with torrential downpours along a
  line extending from 5 miles north of Norwich to Clearwater to 5
  miles southwest of Oxford...and moving northeast at 45 mph.

wind gusts up to 40 mph and heavy rainfall will be possible with
these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Wichita, Derby, Newton, El Dorado, Andover, Haysville, Augusta,
  Wellington, Park City, Valley Center, Bel Aire, Mulvane, Goddard,
  Rose Hill, Maize, Clearwater, Halstead, Douglass, Sedgwick and
  Belle Plaine.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms are not expected to become severe.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3734 9759 3747 9781 3753 9781 3773 9772
      3774 9770 3778 9770 3801 9760 3801 9708
      3771 9655 3709 9720
TIME...MOT...LOC 1614Z 213DEG 37KT 3753 9781 3750 9753 3721 9721

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1120 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1050 AM     TSTM WND DMG     8 E ANTHONY             37.15N 97.88W
05/19/2017                   HARPER             KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT. ROAD SIGN BLOWN DOWN.

&&

ADK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1150 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

KSZ051-052-067>069-191730-
Reno KS-Butler KS-McPherson KS-Harvey KS-Marion KS-
1150 AM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

* Until 1230 PM CDT

* At 1149 AM CDT...National Weather Service Doppler radar was
  tracking strong thunderstorms with heavy rainfall along a line
  extending from 5 miles southwest of Burrton to near Halstead to
  near Kechi...and moving north at 50 mph.

* Locations impacted include...
  Hutchinson, Newton, Mcpherson, Hesston, Hillsboro, Marion, North
  Newton, Moundridge, Inman, Buhler, Peabody, Burrton, Galva, Canton,
  Florence, Goessel, Walton, Elbing, Lehigh and Durham.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3854 9789 3859 9734 3845 9685 3793 9692
      3802 9729 3799 9785
TIME...MOT...LOC 1649Z 190DEG 42KT 3799 9777 3797 9750 3783 9721

JAKUB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

KSZ069-191745-
Butler KS-
1201 PM CDT FRI MAY 19 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Eastern Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 1245 PM CDT

* At 1200 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Atlanta, or 13 miles south of
  Leon...moving north at 40 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes and heavy rainfalls will be possible
with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  El Dorado, Leon, Latham, Rosalia, El Dorado Airport, Beaumont, El
  Dorado Lake and El Dorado State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The storms are not expected to become severe.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 9684 3795 9652 3748 9652 3748 9689
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 189DEG 36KT 3750 9673

JAKUB