Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
827 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Headline: Tornado Watch #239 Cancelled for all of Central & South
Central KS, but remains in effect for Elk, Greenwood & Chase
Counties.

Airmass has stabilized considerably across all of Central & South
Central KS. MLCAPES from 2,000 to 2,500 J/KG still reside across
Southeast KS south of a strong warm front. As such, Tornado Watch
#239 remains in effect for these 3 counties.

UPDATE Issued at 527 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Highlight:
Russell & Lincoln Counties added to Tornado Watch #239.

With tornadic severe thunderstorms surging almost due north across
Barton & Ellsworth Counties it's a no-brainer to add Russell &
Lincoln Counties to Tornado Watch #239.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Forecast highlights focus around severe weather and heavy
rain/flooding potential this afternoon- evening, and again Friday
afternoon-evening.

All signs continue to point toward the potential for higher-end
severe weather this afternoon and evening, mainly south of I-70
and along/west of the Flint Hills, as a powerful shortwave
approaching from the southwest interacts with a strongly unstable
airmass. A dryline is sharpening west/southwest of the forecast
area, with a warm front sharpening central into eastern KS. All
facets of severe weather appear possible, including very
large/giant hail, damaging straight-line winds locally heavy
rain/flooding and a few strong/violent tornadoes. However, as this
morning's update forecaster alluded too, there are some caveats
that may throw a "fly in the ointment" regarding higher-end severe
potential. Strong lift as evident on water vapor imagery is
already overspreading western Oklahoma. Consequently, given the
very moist/unstable and weakly capped airmass, thinking
thunderstorms could initiate much earlier than expected, possibly
as early as 2-3pm. This scenario is strongly supported by most of
the short-range hi-res models. If this occurs, thunderstorms will
be firing well before the strongest low-level shear can become
established, which would likely lessen the tornado threat. In
addition, given the strong meridional flow and strong forcing,
storm mergers and mixed mode storm type is likely, also lessening
the higher-end severe weather risk. However, given these caveats,
do not want to minimize the risk across the Plains this afternoon-
evening. Severe weather is going to occur, but there remains some
questions on magnitude and extent of the higher-end severe
potential. One or more thunderstorm complexes should eventually
materialize this evening/overnight, spreading into eastern KS with
a threat for large hail and damaging winds, although higher-end
risk should remain generally along/west of the Flint Hills.

Attention then turns to Friday's severe weather potential, as
another powerful shortwave approaches from the southwest and
overspreads a continued moist/unstable airmass. Tonight's
convection will likely generate a fairly massive cold pool across
the eastern half of KS, effectively stabilizing the airmass.
However, the strong shortwave approaching from the southwest
should allow the airmass to recover due to strengthening
south/southeast flow to allow for scattered to numerous strong-
severe storms by early to mid- afternoon. Given questions
regarding magnitude of tonight's cold pool, there remains some
uncertainty regarding the exact placement and magnitude of
Friday's severe weather. However, given strong instability and
even stronger deep layer shear than today, could be looking at
higher-end severe weather once again. Activity should then
consolidate into one or more big complexes and spread into eastern
Kansas during the overnight.

Another aspect the next few days is the potential for very heavy
rainfall and associated flooding, including big rises on area
rivers/streams. Taking into account the expected rainfall, River
Forecast Center ensembles indicate many rivers/streams exceeding
minor-moderate flood stage, with some rivers/streams possibly
exceeding major flood stage across south-central and southeast
Kansas. Consequently, will issue a flash flood watch through
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Weather quiets down and cools off for the weekend through next
week, with little to no severe weather chances on the horizon.
Could be looking at off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances Sunday
night through Tuesday, but widespread severe weather or heavy rain
appears unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Numerous (+)TSRA will continue across all of Central & South-
Central KS the rest of the night with TSRA spreading NE across
Southeast KS ~03Z. Severe thunderstorms are sure to continue in
many areas with variable winds sustained ~35kts with 40-45kt
gusts. "Low-end" MVFR cigs are no doubt likely in areas where
(+)TSRA are located. MVFR cigs are likely in all areas later
tonight as a surface cyclone continues to drift east over West
TX. The sfc cyclone's slow eastward movement would keep southeast
winds ~15kts prevailing across Southeast KS throughout the night
while Northeast winds sustained from 17-22kts prevail across
Central KS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    62  76  52  67 /  80  80  70  10
Hutchinson      59  72  49  65 /  90  70  70  10
Newton          60  73  50  64 /  80  80  70  10
ElDorado        62  75  53  66 /  80  80  80  20
Winfield-KWLD  -14  77  54  68 /  80  80  80  10
Russell         56  64  44  62 /  90  60  60  20
Great Bend      56  66  45  63 /  90  60  60  10
Salina          59  69  49  64 /  90  70  80  20
McPherson       59  70  49  64 /  90  70  70  10
Coffeyville     65  79  61  71 /  70  60  80  40
Chanute         64  78  60  70 /  80  60  80  30
Iola            63  77  59  69 /  80  60  80  30
Parsons-KPPF    65  79  60  70 /  80  60  80  30

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

UPDATE...EPS
SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...EPS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
652 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     TSTM WND GST     ROSE HILL               37.57N 97.13W
05/18/2017  E60.00 MPH       BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            50 TO 60 MPH.

&&

BDK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
655 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSZ069-190030-
Butler KS-
655 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Southern and Central Butler County in south central Kansas...

* Until 730 PM CDT

* At 653 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Rose
  Hill to near Douglass...and moving north at 50 mph.

wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  El Dorado, Andover, Augusta, Rose Hill, Douglass, Towanda, Benton,
  Whitewater, Leon, Santa Fe Lake, El Dorado State Park, Augusta
  Municipal Airport, El Dorado Airport and El Dorado Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issues by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
Kansas.

LAT...LON 3782 9716 3796 9715 3784 9663 3747 9681
      3748 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2354Z 198DEG 44KT 3763 9713 3747 9695

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
712 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSZ052-068-069-083-190045-
Butler KS-Harvey KS-Marion KS-Sedgwick KS-
712 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Butler County in south central Kansas...
  Eastern Harvey County in south central Kansas...
  Southern Marion County in central Kansas...
  Northeastern Sedgwick County in south central Kansas...

* Until 745 PM CDT

* At 710 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from North
  Newton...to near Whitewater...to near Augusta...to 8 miles south
  of Leon...and moving north at 60 mph.

wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Newton, El Dorado, Andover, Augusta, Rose Hill, Hesston, Hillsboro,
  North Newton, Douglass, Towanda, Peabody, Benton, Whitewater, Leon,
  Florence, Goessel, Potwin, Walton, Elbing and Burns.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issues by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south
central, central, southeastern and east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3780 9715 3792 9740 3817 9739 3817 9737
      3846 9737 3826 9685 3809 9684 3808 9652
      3748 9653 3748 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0012Z 196DEG 50KT 3808 9735 3793 9711 3773 9691 3756
9683

KLEINSASSER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
717 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSZ093-190045-
Cowley KS-
717 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Cowley County in south central Kansas...

* Until 745 PM CDT

* At 714 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking numerous strong thunderstorms across Cowley county,
  moving north at 50 mph.

wind gusts up to 55 mph will be possible with any of these storms.

* Locations impacted include...
  Arkansas City, Winfield, Udall, Burden, Dexter, Atlanta, Geuda
  Springs, Rock, Cambridge, Maple City, Winfield City Lake and
  Strother Field Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issues by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and southeastern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3748 9715 3748 9652 3700 9653 3700 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0016Z 196DEG 42KT 3747 9693 3701 9680

KLEINSASSER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
809 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0808 PM     TSTM WND GST     9 NW EUREKA             37.91N 96.41W
05/18/2017  E60 MPH          GREENWOOD          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VJP

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