Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Expecting thunderstorms to develop rapidly along the cold front
around 5pm for Central Kansas, as it continues to move southward and
cooler mid-level air approaches from the west to weaken the cap.
Severe weather is likely with upper level jet winds now spreading
east overtop the unstable airmass which will boost wind shear
values. This combined with very steep mid-level lapse rates could
result in large hail greater than 2 inches, as long storms can stay
discrete long enough before they transition to a line and anvil
seeding begins. Damaging winds will become the primary threat as the
storms transition into a line. There is a small chance for a tornado
to occur before sunset if a thunderstorm outflow boundary moves
perpendicular to the frontal boundary and a strong updraft develops
over that intersection of the two boundaries.

Surface high pressure will build into the area on Thursday with rain
showers tapering off across Southeast Kansas by Thursday afternoon.
Daytime highs will be cooler than Wednesday and closer to seasonal
averages. Meanwhile the next weather system is currently offshore
from the Northwest coastline and will move southeast across the
Rockies on Thursday night. Showers/embedded thunderstorms will
spread northward from Oklahoma into Kansas ahead of this weather
system for late Thursday night. The showers/storms look to become
more numerous during the day on Friday/Friday night as low-level
moisture transport increases ahead of deepening upper level PV wave,
especially for locations south of highway 54. Some of those
locations could see heavy rainfall at times with amounts of 1 to 3
inches possible, this combined with tonights and Thursday morning
rainfall could push the one to three day totals into the 2-4 inch
range with some locally higher amounts possible. Minor flooding and
rises on rivers across Southeast Kansas are conceivable, therefore
we will hoist a flood watch for late Thursday night-Friday night.

The wind shear will be very strong ahead of the main PV wave Friday
afternoon over Southeast Kansas but elevated instability is limited,
however the strong upper level forcing ahead of the PV wave itself
could still generate a few strong thunderstorms. Daytime
temperatures will be cool and below normal on Friday as the surface
front remains south of the area. The cool below normal temperatures
will continue into Saturday as rain showers quickly dwindle over
Southeast Kansas Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Modest upper level riding will develop over the central plains on
Sunday with a deep meridional trough digging across the Southeast
states on Monday. This will sweep out all of remaining rich gulf
moisture from the entire US and push it all the way into the
southern areas of the Gulf of Mexico region. Therefore confidence is
high that dry weather will prevail on Sunday into early next week
before some recovery of moisture pushes back northward for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Did somewhat of an overhaul of the TAFs given latest trends. This
afternoon, the MVFR deck of CU will continue along and east of
I-35 until late evening when diurnal heating dissipates enough.
Most locations in these clouds will be SCT-BKN025.

Several models now showing a faster progression of the front over
the region. We focused on the length of which the models held
onto convection behind the advancing front and decreased that
significantly.

What this means for aviation is that storms will develop along a
pre-frontal trough across central Kansas around 23z and move
southeast. Some of these could be severe. A cold front will
advance and move through the area behind the trough. This will
occur from about 01z at KRSL to around 12z at KCNU. As the front
passes, it should mark the end of the precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  68  50  55 /  60  10  40  90
Hutchinson      51  68  48  53 /  60   0  20  80
Newton          51  67  48  54 /  60  10  20  80
ElDorado        53  68  50  55 /  70  20  30  90
Winfield-KWLD   55  67  51  56 /  50  30  50  90
Russell         47  70  47  54 /  40   0  10  70
Great Bend      48  70  47  52 /  50   0  20  80
Salina          49  69  48  55 /  70   0  10  70
McPherson       50  68  47  53 /  70   0  20  80
Coffeyville     58  66  53  60 /  60  80  70  90
Chanute         56  66  51  57 /  60  60  40  90
Iola            55  67  50  57 /  60  50  30  80
Parsons-KPPF    57  66  52  58 /  60  80  60  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning
for KSZ069-083-092>096-098>100.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...KRC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
359 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-202100-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
359 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Strong winds will continue through the late afternoon hours. Please
see the latest wind advisory in effect.

Thunderstorms will develop and affect central Kansas through the
evening hours and then form a line of storms and continue to move
southward. The greatest risk for severe storms is expected across
central Kansas and portions of south central Kansas. The primary
threats will be large hail around two inches and damaging winds to
70 mph. A brief tornado is also possible until sunset over central
Kansas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

Another powerful storm system will affect the area Thursday night
through Saturday. A few strong storms will be possible on Friday
afternoon and evening, generally east of the Kansas turnpike.
Excessive rainfall and minor lowland flooding is likely Friday and
Friday night across much of the area, including significant rises on
some rivers and creeks. See latest flood watch for more details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed into the late evening hours across
central Kansas today.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
451 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

KSZ032-033-192215-
Russell KS-Lincoln KS-
451 PM CDT WED APR 19 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Northeastern Russell County in central Kansas...
  Northern Lincoln County in central Kansas...

* Until 515 PM CDT

* At 448 PM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm over Lucas, or 18 miles north of
  Wilson...moving northeast at 55 mph.

hail up to the size of nickels...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Lucas, Sylvan Grove, Luray, Ash Grove and Wilson Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issues by the National Weather
Service.

&&

A severe thunderstorm watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for
central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3922 9809 3914 9801 3892 9856 3913 9872
      3913 9849 3922 9849
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 238DEG 49KT 3908 9857

METZGER