Flood Watch 1, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
303 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Expecting thunderstorms to develop rapidly along the cold front
around 5pm for Central Kansas, as it continues to move southward and
cooler mid-level air approaches from the west to weaken the cap.
Severe weather is likely with upper level jet winds now spreading
east overtop the unstable airmass which will boost wind shear
values. This combined with very steep mid-level lapse rates could
result in large hail greater than 2 inches, as long storms can stay
discrete long enough before they transition to a line and anvil
seeding begins. Damaging winds will become the primary threat as the
storms transition into a line. There is a small chance for a tornado
to occur before sunset if a thunderstorm outflow boundary moves
perpendicular to the frontal boundary and a strong updraft develops
over that intersection of the two boundaries.

Surface high pressure will build into the area on Thursday with rain
showers tapering off across Southeast Kansas by Thursday afternoon.
Daytime highs will be cooler than Wednesday and closer to seasonal
averages. Meanwhile the next weather system is currently offshore
from the Northwest coastline and will move southeast across the
Rockies on Thursday night. Showers/embedded thunderstorms will
spread northward from Oklahoma into Kansas ahead of this weather
system for late Thursday night. The showers/storms look to become
more numerous during the day on Friday/Friday night as low-level
moisture transport increases ahead of deepening upper level PV wave,
especially for locations south of highway 54. Some of those
locations could see heavy rainfall at times with amounts of 1 to 3
inches possible, this combined with tonights and Thursday morning
rainfall could push the one to three day totals into the 2-4 inch
range with some locally higher amounts possible. Minor flooding and
rises on rivers across Southeast Kansas are conceivable, therefore
we will hoist a flood watch for late Thursday night-Friday night.

The wind shear will be very strong ahead of the main PV wave Friday
afternoon over Southeast Kansas but elevated instability is limited,
however the strong upper level forcing ahead of the PV wave itself
could still generate a few strong thunderstorms. Daytime
temperatures will be cool and below normal on Friday as the surface
front remains south of the area. The cool below normal temperatures
will continue into Saturday as rain showers quickly dwindle over
Southeast Kansas Saturday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 303 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Modest upper level riding will develop over the central plains on
Sunday with a deep meridional trough digging across the Southeast
states on Monday. This will sweep out all of remaining rich gulf
moisture from the entire US and push it all the way into the
southern areas of the Gulf of Mexico region. Therefore confidence is
high that dry weather will prevail on Sunday into early next week
before some recovery of moisture pushes back northward for
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1243 PM CDT Wed Apr 19 2017

Did somewhat of an overhaul of the TAFs given latest trends. This
afternoon, the MVFR deck of CU will continue along and east of
I-35 until late evening when diurnal heating dissipates enough.
Most locations in these clouds will be SCT-BKN025.

Several models now showing a faster progression of the front over
the region. We focused on the length of which the models held
onto convection behind the advancing front and decreased that
significantly.

What this means for aviation is that storms will develop along a
pre-frontal trough across central Kansas around 23z and move
southeast. Some of these could be severe. A cold front will
advance and move through the area behind the trough. This will
occur from about 01z at KRSL to around 12z at KCNU. As the front
passes, it should mark the end of the precipitation.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    53  68  50  55 /  60  10  40  90
Hutchinson      51  68  48  53 /  60   0  20  80
Newton          51  67  48  54 /  60  10  20  80
ElDorado        53  68  50  55 /  70  20  30  90
Winfield-KWLD   55  67  51  56 /  50  30  50  90
Russell         47  70  47  54 /  40   0  10  70
Great Bend      48  70  47  52 /  50   0  20  80
Salina          49  69  48  55 /  70   0  10  70
McPherson       50  68  47  53 /  70   0  20  80
Coffeyville     58  66  53  60 /  60  80  70  90
Chanute         56  66  51  57 /  60  60  40  90
Iola            55  67  50  57 /  60  50  30  80
Parsons-KPPF    57  66  52  58 /  60  80  60  90

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from late Thursday night through Saturday morning
for KSZ069-083-092>096-098>100.

Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for KSZ032-033-047>053-
067>069-082-083-091>093.

&&

SHORT TERM...CDJ
LONG TERM...CDJ
AVIATION...KRC

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