Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1140 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 928 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Convection continues along a slow moving cold front, from KSLN to
KGBD.  Training and back building storms and a few severe storms
continue in this area as low level jet continues to feed into this
area. Latest short term RAP model data shows low level jet and
moisture transport will begin to veer to the east-northeast towards
05-06z, which should lead to convection in Central KS waning some or
beginning to propagate more to the SE.  So the heavy rainfall threat
will continue for a few more hours in Central KS.  As this low level
jet veers to along the KS Turnpike, could see additional convection
develop after 06z ahead of the ongoing convection for portions of
the Flint Hills and across South Central KS (ie...Wichita Metro).

Current pops look on track, shifting the convection to the south-
southeast overnight. There is some concern that the back
building/training convection threat will shift into southern KS
overnight or early Sunday morning as moisture transport stays
focused from wrn OK into srn KS.  The only caveat from this scenario
playing out,  is how strong the cold pool from the Central KS storms
becomes, which could push the convective chances further south into
northern OK. Will have to keep an eye on this, but will stay the
course for now, as cold pool really hasn't gotten going yet.

Ketcham

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday night)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Active weather pattern thunderstorm-wise expected to continue
through Friday-Saturday.

A cold front stretched from southeast Nebraska southwestward to a
developing triple point over southwest Kansas, with a dryline
extending south of the triple point into the eastern Texas
Panhandle. Very strong instability (MLCAPE 2500-3500 j/kg) and
30-35 kt of effective bulk shear will be in place near and
southeast of the front, where upper 50s to middle 60s dewpoints
exist in the warm sector. Strong heating and areas of frontal
convergence should allow widely scattered severe storms to develop
toward early this evening near the front. Large hail and damaging
wind gusts will be the main hazards this evening. Short-term
models also indicate forcing from the low-level jet and isentropic
lift may initiate scattered storms over the Flint Hills region
this evening which could also pose a hail/wind threat. The cold
front will shift slowly southward overnight into a 40-45 knot
southerly low-level jet, which will tend to veer just ahead of the
boundary late. This will likely support storms merging into
larger clusters, which may have some back-building tendency,
favoring locally heavy rainfall and localized flooding potential
in south-central/southeast KS late tonight.

Sunday-Sunday night...If overnight convection develops a fairly
substantial cold pool, thinking precipitation chances will be
fairly minimal Sunday morning across the forecast area, with
greater chances further south across Oklahoma, in vicinity of the
convectively-reinforced frontal zone. However, thinking
shower/storm chances will increase late afternoon into Sunday
night, as the NAM/GFS approach a subtle upper wave from the
southwest, inducing warm/moist advection atop the frontal zone.
Limited instability should preclude widespread severe weather.

Monday-early Tuesday...A 2nd weak upper wave is expected to
approach from the west, possibly supporting isolated hit-or-miss
showers/storms Monday afternoon/evening, especially over southern
Kansas in vicinity of weak frontal zone washing back north. This
activity could linger into the nighttime hours in response to an
increasing low-level jet. Furthermore, could see additional
isolated activity Monday night into early Tuesday further north
across central into east-central Kansas, as a Northern Plains
shortwave advances a cold front into Mid-America. However, suspect
better chances will remain north of the region near better
forcing.

Tuesday afternoon-night...Could see a few storms develop along a
weakening cold front from central into northeast Kansas. If this
occurs, strong instability with marginal deep layer shear would
support a few severe storms. Activity could fester and/or develop
through the overnight across central/northern Kansas as a
strengthening low-level jet impinges on the west-east oriented
frontal zone, with a continued threat for strong/severe storms and
heavy rain.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Wednesday afternoon-night...GFS and ECMWF overall synoptic
pattern continue to suggest the potential for somewhat more
widespread and/or higher end severe weather, as a vigorous
shortwave and associated cold front approaches from the west,
interacting with an increasingly moist/unstable airmass in place
across the Heartland. What especially gets our attention is the
increasing mid-upper level flow and associated deep layer shear.
Details remain sketchy this far out, so check back for later
forecasts.

Friday-Saturday...Attention then turns to a powerful storm system
expected to approach the Central/Southern Plains late week into
the weekend. Despite fairly substantial spread amongst individual
GFS ensemble members, overall medium range consensus continues to
support the synoptic pattern surrounding this storm system. That
said, thinking greatest severe weather potential will remain south
of the Kansas region closer to the warm sector, with a greater
potential for widespread rain/embedded storms across Kansas, along
with much cooler temperatures (highs possibly in the 40s-50s and
windy Fri-Sat). However, still quite a bit of uncertainty this far
out, so will continue to monitor model trends.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1139 PM CDT Sat Apr 15 2017

Widely scattered storms continue across Central KS at this time,
along a slow, southward moving cold front. The convection is making
slow propagation to the SE so will end the VCTS for KGBD/KRSL and
KSLN. As the convection propagates southeast, will include a VCTS
mention for KHUT and KICT to account for this convection potential
late tonight or early Sun morning.

The front will continue to push south into south-central/southeast
KS overnight, into a 40 knot southerly low-level jet, including some
potential for storm clusters to back-build across south-
central/southeast KS into early Sun morning. Some MVFR ceilings may
develop along and just north of the cold front during the morning
hours Sunday, possibly lingering into the afternoon hours.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  66  56  73 /  60  50  50  20
Hutchinson      55  64  53  72 /  70  50  30  20
Newton          56  65  54  71 /  50  50  40  20
ElDorado        58  67  56  72 /  70  50  50  30
Winfield-KWLD   59  68  58  74 /  70  50  50  30
Russell         49  64  50  72 /  20  20  10  10
Great Bend      50  63  50  72 /  50  30  20  20
Salina          54  65  52  73 /  60  20  20  20
McPherson       54  65  52  72 /  70  40  30  20
Coffeyville     61  69  59  74 /  70  60  60  40
Chanute         60  67  57  72 /  70  50  60  40
Iola            60  67  56  72 /  70  50  60  40
Parsons-KPPF    61  68  58  73 /  70  50  60  40

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

UPDATE...Ketcham
SHORT TERM...JMC/ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...Ketcham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1206 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-170515-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
1206 AM CDT Sun Apr 16 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

Clusters of strong thunderstorms are expected to move southward
across eastern and southern Kansas overnight, with the threat
transitioning to locally heavy rainfall and pockets of flooding.

An areal flood warning remains in effect for portions of Central
Kansas including, northern Ellsworth county and southern Lincoln
County. Lowland flooding and some flooded county roads are
possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

There is a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over southern
Kansas Sunday morning into the afternoon, with chances increasing
late Sunday afternoon and night. While a few strong storms with
small hail are possible over southern Kansas, severe weather is not
expected.

Periodic thunderstorm chances will continue to impact the region
through much of the upcoming week. It appears the greatest
potential for organized severe storms will be Wednesday afternoon
and evening, although a few severe storms cannot be ruled out
Monday
and Tuesday evening areawide, and again Friday over far southern
Kansas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated tonight.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

ADK/Ketcham

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
949 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             3 ENE SALINA            38.84N 97.57W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS DIME SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW
            QUARTERS MIXED IN.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
952 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0950 PM     HAIL             8 NE ELLSWORTH          38.82N 98.12W
04/15/2017  M0.88 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS LOTS OF PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1152 PM CDT SAT APR 15 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0704 PM     HAIL             7 WSW WESTFALL          38.89N 98.12W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            REPORT IS ABOUT 3 NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70

0709 PM     HAIL             8 N HOISINGTON          38.63N 98.78W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL.

0740 PM     HAIL             6 E SUSANK              38.64N 98.67W
04/15/2017  E1.00 INCH       BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF HAIL WHICH IS PEA TO QUARTER SIZED.

0750 PM     HAIL             6 SW WESTFALL           38.87N 98.08W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER IS LOCATED AT MILE MARKER 228 ON INTERSTATE 70.

0809 PM     HAIL             WESTFALL                38.93N 98.00W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

0810 PM     HAIL             3 SW WESTFALL           38.90N 98.04W
04/15/2017  M1.50 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER SENT REPORT VIA TWITTER OF PEA TO PING PONG BALL
            SIZED HAIL AND THERE WERE DRIFTS OF DIME SIZED HAIL.

0817 PM     HAIL             3 S WESTFALL            38.89N 98.00W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0829 PM     HAIL             6 NNE LUCAS             39.13N 98.49W
04/15/2017  E1.25 INCH       RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER TO HALF DOLLAR SIZED HAIL REPORTED.

0845 PM     HAIL             12 SE LINCOLN           38.92N 97.99W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZED HAIL REPORTED 3 MILES NORTH OF INTERSTATE
            70 AND COLT DRIVE.

0853 PM     HAIL             7 WSW LINCOLN           39.00N 98.27W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

0905 PM     HAIL             1 E GREAT BEND          38.36N 98.79W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS PEA TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL FOR THE
            PAST FEW MINUTES.

0908 PM     HAIL             7 S LINCOLN             38.94N 98.15W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL ON KANSAS
            HIGHWAY 14.

0914 PM     HEAVY RAIN       10 SSE LINCOLN          38.91N 98.08W
04/15/2017  M4.00 INCH       LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN
            THE LAST TWO HOURS AND HEAVY RAIN IS STILL FALLING.

0930 PM     FLASH FLOOD      8 S LINCOLN             38.93N 98.15W
04/15/2017                   LINCOLN            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS WATER IS OVER ELK DRIVE AT KANSAS
            HIGHWAY 14.

0940 PM     HAIL             3 ENE SALINA            38.84N 97.57W
04/15/2017  M1.00 INCH       SALINE             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS DIME SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW
            QUARTERS MIXED IN.

0950 PM     HAIL             8 NE ELLSWORTH          38.82N 98.12W
04/15/2017  M0.88 INCH       ELLSWORTH          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS LOTS OF PEA TO NICKEL SIZED HAIL.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1216 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1215 AM     FLOOD            MCPHERSON               38.37N 97.66W
04/16/2017                   MCPHERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED STREET FLOODING AND SOME STREET
            DAMAGE FROM THE HIGH WATER IN THE 800 BLOCK EAST EUCLID
            IN MCPHERSON.

&&

CDJ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
1240 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

KSZ082-160615-
Kingman KS-
1240 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Western Kingman County in south central Kansas...

* Until 115 AM CDT

* At 1238 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm near Cairo...moving east at 20 mph.

hail up to the size of dimes...and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be
possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Cunningham, Nashville, Willowdale, Zenda and Penalosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Be prepared to take shelter in the event the storms intensify and
become severe...or a warning is issues by the National Weather
Service.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9846 3773 9847 3773 9818 3772 9818
      3738 9821
TIME...MOT...LOC 0540Z 279DEG 18KT 3766 9849

DARMOFAL

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
113 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

KSZ082-160645-
Kingman KS-
113 AM CDT SUN APR 16 2017

The National Weather Service in Wichita has issued a

* Significant Weather Advisory for...
  Kingman County in south central Kansas...

* Until 145 AM CDT

* At 112 AM CDT...National Weather Service meteorologists were
  tracking a strong thunderstorm 7 miles southeast of Cunningham, or
  11 miles west of Kingman...moving east at 20 mph.

wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

* Locations impacted include...
  Kingman, Cunningham, Nashville, Willowdale, Zenda, Spivey,
  Cleveland, Penalosa, Rago and Kingman Airport.

LAT...LON 3739 9846 3773 9847 3773 9806 3739 9805
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 290DEG 18KT 3759 9831

DARMOFAL