Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Wichita, KS

697 
WWUS53 KICT 182245
SVSICT

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wichita KS
545 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

KSC017-115-182255-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-170518T2315Z/
Chase KS-Marion KS-
545 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CHASE AND EASTERN
MARION COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore the warning has been cancelled.  However small hail, gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for central and
east central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3852 9652 3814 9674 3815 9695
      3853 9702 3853 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2243Z 189DEG 32KT 3847 9679 

$$

KLEINSASSER

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
115 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Forecast highlights focus around severe weather and heavy
rain/flooding potential this afternoon- evening, and again Friday
afternoon-evening.

All signs continue to point toward the potential for higher-end
severe weather this afternoon and evening, mainly south of I-70
and along/west of the Flint Hills, as a powerful shortwave
approaching from the southwest interacts with a strongly unstable
airmass. A dryline is sharpening west/southwest of the forecast
area, with a warm front sharpening central into eastern KS. All
facets of severe weather appear possible, including very
large/giant hail, damaging straight-line winds locally heavy
rain/flooding and a few strong/violent tornadoes. However, as this
morning's update forecaster alluded too, there are some caveats
that may throw a "fly in the ointment" regarding higher-end severe
potential. Strong lift as evident on water vapor imagery is
already overspreading western Oklahoma. Consequently, given the
very moist/unstable and weakly capped airmass, thinking
thunderstorms could initiate much earlier than expected, possibly
as early as 2-3pm. This scenario is strongly supported by most of
the short-range hi-res models. If this occurs, thunderstorms will
be firing well before the strongest low-level shear can become
established, which would likely lessen the tornado threat. In
addition, given the strong meridional flow and strong forcing,
storm mergers and mixed mode storm type is likely, also lessening
the higher-end severe weather risk. However, given these caveats,
do not want to minimize the risk across the Plains this afternoon-
evening. Severe weather is going to occur, but there remains some
questions on magnitude and extent of the higher-end severe
potential. One or more thunderstorm complexes should eventually
materialize this evening/overnight, spreading into eastern KS with
a threat for large hail and damaging winds, although higher-end
risk should remain generally along/west of the Flint Hills.

Attention then turns to Friday's severe weather potential, as
another powerful shortwave approaches from the southwest and
overspreads a continued moist/unstable airmass. Tonight's
convection will likely generate a fairly massive cold pool across
the eastern half of KS, effectively stabilizing the airmass.
However, the strong shortwave approaching from the southwest
should allow the airmass to recover due to strengthening
south/southeast flow to allow for scattered to numerous strong-
severe storms by early to mid- afternoon. Given questions
regarding magnitude of tonight's cold pool, there remains some
uncertainty regarding the exact placement and magnitude of
Friday's severe weather. However, given strong instability and
even stronger deep layer shear than today, could be looking at
higher-end severe weather once again. Activity should then
consolidate into one or more big complexes and spread into eastern
Kansas during the overnight.

Another aspect the next few days is the potential for very heavy
rainfall and associated flooding, including big rises on area
rivers/streams. Taking into account the expected rainfall, River
Forecast Center ensembles indicate many rivers/streams exceeding
minor-moderate flood stage, with some rivers/streams possibly
exceeding major flood stage across south-central and southeast
Kansas. Consequently, will issue a flash flood watch through
Friday night.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 106 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Weather quiets down and cools off for the weekend through next
week, with little to no severe weather chances on the horizon.
Could be looking at off-and-on shower/thunderstorm chances Sunday
night through Tuesday, but widespread severe weather or heavy rain
appears unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 114 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

Warm frontal boundary continues to bisect the forecast area,
currently located along highway 59.  Areas north of the front, have
MVFR cigs and easterly flow.  In the warm sector, MVFR cigs have
slowly mixed out, as winds have come around to the south.

Still expecting convection to develop across South Central KS, with
storms expected to move into KICT/KHUT and KGBD. So will go with
VCTS/SHRA with gusty winds to 45kts after 22z.  Will see storms
further to the north-northeast after 00z.  Expect the convection to
evolve into an eastward/forward propagating complex through the
overnight hours into early Fri morning.

After the complex moved east, expect MVFR to IFR cigs for most
locations with easterly upslope flow.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    79  62  76  52 /  50  70  80  70
Hutchinson      75  59  72  49 /  60  80  70  70
Newton          77  60  73  50 /  40  80  80  70
ElDorado        80  62  75  53 /  20  80  80  80
Winfield-KWLD   82  63  77  54 /  30  80  80  80
Russell         66  56  64  44 /  70  80  60  60
Great Bend      71  56  66  45 /  70  80  60  60
Salina          73  59  69  49 /  50  80  70  80
McPherson       75  59  70  49 /  60  80  70  70
Coffeyville     84  65  79  61 /  10  70  60  80
Chanute         84  64  78  60 /  10  80  60  80
Iola            84  63  77  59 /  10  80  60  80
Parsons-KPPF    84  65  79  60 /  10  80  60  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...BDK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
201 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-191915-
Russell-Lincoln-Barton-Ellsworth-Saline-Rice-McPherson-Marion-Chase-
Reno-Harvey-Butler-Greenwood-Woodson-Allen-Kingman-Sedgwick-Harper-
Sumner-Cowley-Elk-Wilson-Neosho-Chautauqua-Montgomery-Labette-
201 PM CDT Thu May 18 2017

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Central Kansas,
South Central Kansas and Southeast Kansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Severe thunderstorms with very large hail and damaging winds are
expected. A few potentially strong to violent tornadoes are also
possible. The highest threat is mainly south of I-70 and west of
the Flint Hills between 3 PM and 10 PM. Storms will consolidate
into one or more complexes overnight, with a continued damaging
wind threat over eastern Kansas. Heavy rain and localized flash
flooding is also possible through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Strong to severe thunderstorms are possible once again Friday
afternoon and evening, mainly over the eastern half of Kansas.
While some uncertainty exists, higher-end severe weather is
possible once again, with very large hail, damaging winds, heavy
rain, pockets of flash flooding and a few tornadoes. One or more
thunderstorm complexes will then materialize across eastern Kansas
during the evening and overnight hours, with a continued damaging
wind, heavy rain and flash flooding threat.

Due to the expected heavy rain through Friday night, several rivers
and streams are expected to reach or exceed flood stage late Friday
through the weekend, and possibly into next week, especially over
the eastern half of Kansas. Moderate to major river flooding is
possible. Stay tuned for any river flood warning statements.

Thunderstorms are possible from Sunday Night through Tuesday, but
widespread severe weather or heavy rain appears unlikely.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will be needed this afternoon and evening across
much of the region, and again Friday afternoon and evening over
mainly the eastern half of Kansas.

&&

For a graphical version of this information, see our webpage at:
http://weather.gov/wichita/hwo/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
447 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             GREAT BEND              38.36N 98.81W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
459 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0443 PM     HAIL             5 SW BUSHTON            38.46N 98.46W
05/18/2017  E1.00 INCH       RICE               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TIME IS BASED OFF OF RADAR.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
500 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     HAIL             BURNS                   38.09N 96.89W
05/18/2017  E0.88 INCH       MARION             KS   AMATEUR RADIO

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
508 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0507 PM     FLOOD            GREAT BEND              38.36N 98.81W
05/18/2017                   BARTON             KS   STORM CHASER

            STREETS ARE FLOODED ON ROUTE 96 THROUGH GREAT BEND.

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
512 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             3 W HALSTEAD            38.00N 97.56W
05/18/2017  E1.75 INCH       HARVEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VJP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
514 PM CDT THU MAY 18 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FUNNEL CLOUD     3 E GREAT BEND          38.36N 98.75W
05/18/2017                   BARTON             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

VJP