Flash Flood Watch 6, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
156 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Water vapor imagery shows potent shortwave impulse tracking across
northern WI and approaching the western Great Lakes. At the
surface, cold front extends from northern MO and across far
northern KS.

Storms have developed along the cold front over nw KS, likely
aided by upslope processes. Current thinking is that storms will
continue along the front as it pushes south this evening. Should
also see convection expand in coverage as 850-700mb moisture
transport ramps up toward sunset in addition to much of the area
moving into the right entrance region of an unseasonably strong
upper jet. While storms will be possible just about anywhere
across forecast area this evening, feel the more robust activity
should be generally along and west of I-135 where better
instability will be situated. Should once again be plenty of shear
for large hail with downburst winds also a threat. Will also run
with a flood watch for areas that have received the most rainfall
over the past several days which will generally be the southwest
corner of our forecast area. Thing should be fairly progressive
with the bulk of the activity south of the forecast area by 2 am.

By sunrise Fri, the majority of the showers and storms should be
down in OK with a cool airmass left over KS. Expecting an increase
in convection Fri night over western KS as some of the deeper
moisture starts to work back around the western fringe of the
surface high. This will also be aided by sw KS remaining in the
right entrance region of the upper jet. There is good model
agreement in shortwave energy diving southeast out of the
central/northern Rockies Sat night that should ramp up shower and
storm chances. Some of this may linger into Sun as the atmosphere
remains very moist in the low levels.

Confidence remains high that below normal afternoon highs will
maintain through the weekend but will still feel muggy as we keep
some low level moisture around.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 156 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Pattern looks to remain unsettled through much of this period.
Unseasonably strong westerlies will remain in place as the
surface high shifts east. This will keep low level moisture in
place as a number of perturbations slide through the flow. At
this time the better rain chances look to be Tue into Tue night as
a wave slides across northern KS and Nebraska. May actually see a
warming trend toward the end of the work week which may get
afternoon highs back closer to seasonal normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 704 AM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Once again a difficult aviation forecast. Tons of low level
moisture and lifting mechanisms in place to produce air mass
showers and thunderstorms this afternoon at all locations. Better
instability exists along the KSRL/KGBD/KHUT corridor this
afternoon and with the wave of storms moving east out of western
KS, a good chance for severe will will prevail SW of a KRSL TO
KCFV line. Also with the rain and low level moisture in place,
vsbys could easily go into mvfr if not ifr towards morning at
KRSL, KSAL, KGBD, and KHUT. However, with current forecast of
cloud cover in place, that would hinder a major drop off of the
vsbys. If it clears out any, they would likely drop into ifr
category. This is something to watch closely. Afternoon cumulus
field will likely fluctuate between vfr and mvfr at all sites.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    87  68  82  67 /  50  70  20  20
Hutchinson      86  65  83  65 /  50  70  10  20
Newton          85  66  83  64 /  50  60  20  20
ElDorado        85  67  82  64 /  50  60  20  20
Winfield-KWLD   87  68  83  67 /  60  70  40  20
Russell         85  62  82  64 /  50  60  10  30
Great Bend      85  63  83  65 /  50  60  10  30
Salina          86  64  84  65 /  50  60  10  20
McPherson       86  64  83  64 /  50  60  10  20
Coffeyville     85  68  84  66 /  50  60  50  20
Chanute         84  66  83  65 /  40  60  30  10
Iola            84  67  83  64 /  40  60  30  10
Parsons-KPPF    84  68  83  66 /  50  60  40  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch from 7 PM CDT this evening through Friday
morning for KSZ082-083-091>093.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH

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