Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
229 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

.NEAR TERM...(Now through Tonight)
Issued at 215 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Surface analysis this afternoon shows a low with attendant cold
front gradually moving eastward through MS at the moment. Ahead of
this system over the CWA, southerly flow is gaining a westerly
component with the front inching closer. Plenty of low level moisture
is in place this afternoon with Td generally in the low to mid 60s.
Temps across the area and trying to bump up into the mid 70s but are
being inhibited by cloud cover increasing to the west. Guidance
continues to indicate some potential today for strong to severe
storms to develop out ahead of the front if convection is able to
initiate within a favorable airmass. Current forecast will show a
gradual increase in convection across the CWA now through this
evening and thunderstorm develop is expected to initiate west of
I65, given current instability trends, and progress eastward today.
Main threats continue to be strong wind gusts and hail, based off
model soundings showing favorable mid level lapse rates. Shear is
fairly limited for a higher tornado threat but cannot rule out a
brief spin up.

.SHORT TERM...(Sunday through early Monday)
With the surface boundary shifted east of the CWA, lingering showers
on the back side of the surface low will impact the area early Sunday
morning, mainly before sunrise. Models are in a decent agreement
showing the system slowing down around the AL/GA line. This will
keep the rain threat in the forecast for much of the day tomorrow,
with a focus over the eastern zones. Drier air behind the system will
be quick to spread over the area from W-E as the system drifts out
of the region by the early evening hours, ending rain chances. We
will see some cold air advection behind this front, so expecting
highs only in the low to mid 60s on Sunday with lows dropping into
the upper 40s to low 50s on Monday morning.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)

The extended forecast starts out with near normal temps on Monday as
northerly winds continue behind the exiting cut off low. The work
week will start off with temps in the upper 60s to lower 70s and
overnight lows in the lower 50s and decreasing clouds thanks to that
cooler and drier air. As a ridge begins to build behind the departing
low, skies will become mostly clear and temps will be on the rise.
Southerly flow returns on Tuesday but as the pressure gradient
tightens ahead of the next system, expect breezy southerly flow on
Wednesday. Combined with the ridge still over portions of the area,
temps will rebound into the lower 80s by Wednesday afternoon. As the
next system swings out of the Plains and up towards the Great Lakes,
it will deamplify and push the ridge off to our NE. The accompanying
sfc low will bring a 'cold' front into the TN Valley Wed Night into
Thursday and bring some showers and thunderstorms. No severity
concern with these storms at this time as the convection along front
will be falling apart as it moves southeastward across the area.
What is left of the front will be lifted back northward on Friday as
high pressure off the east coast strengthens. By the end of the week,
temps will be in the mid 80s with a lingering slight chance of
showers and thunderstorms. Saturday will feel much like Friday,
slight chance of showers and storms, highs in the mid 80s, but the
system coming out of the Rockies will push this ridge back out into
the Atlantic by Sunday providing a better chance of precipitation
across the board.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

Main concern this afternoon will be the potential for showers and
thunderstorms pushing into the vicinity of the terminals. An area of
showers and embedded storms is currently drifting toward NW AL from
the west. Assuming the atmosphere continues to destabilize ahead of
a cloud shield covering N. MS and W. TN, expect thunderstorms to
impact MSL by 20Z and HSV by 21Z and linger through sunset. VCSH will
possible overnight with MFVR vsby before sunrise.

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...Barron
SHORT TERM...Barron
LONG TERM...JMS
AVIATION...Barron

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1138 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-230015-
Lauderdale-Colbert-Franklin AL-Lawrence-Limestone-Madison-Morgan-
Marshall-Jackson-De Kalb-Cullman-Moore-Lincoln-Franklin TN-
1138 AM CDT Sat Apr 22 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north Alabama and portions
of southern middle Tennessee.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Stronger and more numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop and
move across the region this afternoon and evening, just ahead of and
along an eastward moving cold front. Some of these storms could be
strong to severe, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary
threats. These storms should quickly move off to the east and end by
late Saturday evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will be possible on Wednesday
night into Thursday, as another weak cold front approaches the
Tennessee Valley.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management personnel is
possible this afternoon and evening.

RSB