River Flood Warning 1, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
356 AM CST Wed Jan 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...
A stationary front was waffling over the inland portions of the
2-tiers of counties near the coast early this morning. At 3:00
AM the front appeared to be near a line from Wharton to Sugarland
to downtown Houston and then through south-central Liberty County.
An upper level shortwave trough was moving overhead and helping to
enhance the convection along the front. The strongest storms since
1:00 AM have been along the highway 59 corridor between Sugar Land
and Wharton. Still think isolated severe storms are possible early
this morning. However, locally heavy rainfall was becoming a
bigger threat. Some factors that are coming together for locally
heavy rainfall include moisture pooling along the front through
700 mb; 30 to 40 knot inflow at 850 mb; and a 200 to 300 mb jet
streak moving over the Hill Country and western areas of SE Texas.
Because of this, mentioned the possibility of locally heavy
rainfall through noon. The upper support for locally heavy
rainfall will weaken this afternoon; although, widespread showers
and thunderstorms will continue.

Rain and thunderstorms will continue over the area through tonight
and into Thursday as the upper low over New Mexico moves
northeastward into the Central Plains. Chances for isolated severe
storms with locally heavy rainfall look better Wednesday night
into Thursday morning as the main upper trough and the right-rear
quadrant of the upper level jet move overhead.

For the remainder of the period, a break is in store for Friday as
an upper level shortwave ridge moves across the state. Another
bout of rain and thunderstorms will arrive Friday night and
Saturday as another upper trough moves across the Southern Plains
into Texas. Sunday is looking to be a windy day as the upper and
surface low get wrapped up over the Mississippi Valley and the
pressure gradient tightens across the area.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      56  53  72  55  77 /  90  40  20   0  10
Houston (IAH)              71  60  73  58  78 /  80  60  50  10  10
Galveston (GLS)            65  64  69  63  73 /  50  70  60  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 4 AM CST early this morning for the
     following zones: Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Galveston Bay.

&&

Discussion...40
Aviation/Marine...39

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
457 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-191315-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
457 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WIDESPREAD RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING WITH STRONG WINDS
AND ISOLATED TORNADOES THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY. ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
STRONG GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A
COLD FRONT, STRONG WESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA ON SUNDAY MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND OVER THE WEEKEND.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-191315-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
457 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS..

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AND AGAIN
LATER THIS EVENING MAINLY OVER GALVESTON BAY AND THE NEARSHORE
GULF OF MEXICO WATERS WITHIN 20 NM. AT TIMES THE VISIBILITY WILL
BE UNDER 1 NM.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

AREAS OF DENSE SEA FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE NIGHT AND
MORNING TIME PERIODS THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS
ARE THEN POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
454 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017

TXZ213-181145-
Harris TX-
454 AM CST WED JAN 18 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN HARRIS COUNTY THROUGH 545
AM CST...

At 454 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Magnolia Park, or over Second Ward, moving northeast at 15 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and funnel clouds will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Northwestern Pasadena, Galena Park, Jacinto City, Channelview,
Greater Fifth Ward, Greater Third Ward, Second Ward, Greater
Eastwood, Downtown Houston, Cloverleaf, Macgregor, Highlands, Midtown
Houston, Astrodome Area, Golfcrest / Bellfort / Reveille, Sheldon,
Denver Harbor / Port Houston, Park Place, Herman Park and East
Houston.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 2964 9532 2970 9540 2997 9522 2982 9505
TIME...MOT...LOC 1054Z 219DEG 15KT 2975 9530

40