Severe Thunderstorm Warning 14, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Gray ME
326 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will sweep east and cross the region accompanied
by showers and thunderstorms. A surface trough will cross the
area on Thursday and may touch off a few mountain showers. Low
pressure and a trailing frontal system will cross the region
Friday and Friday night with rain. Another low pressure system
may bring rain to the region Sunday and Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Severe thunderstorm watch number 300 has been issued for a portion
of the forecast area. We continue to slowly destabilize across
NH...and enough instability should develop to support severe
thunderstorms this afternoon and early evening when coupled with the
moderate deep layer shear and steep mid level lapse rates. Damaging
winds and large hail will be the main threats, with the most
probable location being western and southern NH. Toward the ME and
NH coastal plain, the marine layer should act to weaken the storms
this evening with only a very low prob of severe there, although
lightning could very well be a threat.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
Tstorm threat will diminish after 9 PM with storms moving offshore.
Fog and stratus will likely be common overnight, especially on the
coastal plain. The upper level low will move overhead on Thursday,
with convective showers likely, especially in the north. A few
rumbles of thunder with small hail will be possible as well with the
very cold air aloft.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A large upper level low pressure system will be situated over
southeastern Canada on Friday. Steep low level lapse rates will
allow for showers to form, mainly during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The upper level feature will be east of our
region Saturday, however there will still be sufficient moisture
and steep lapse rates to produce a shower or two.

Sunday may be the dry day for the next several days. A weak and
fast moving ridge of high pressure will allow for some sunshine
as one system exits the region and yet another system
approaches.

Yet another upper level low pressure system will dig south from
the Great Lakes region on Monday. This will trigger cyclogenesis
along the Mid Atlantic region which will allow for a steady and
very chilly rain to break out across the region. By Tuesday, a
complex area of low pressure will be sliding northeast off Cape
Cod, continuing well below normal temperatures and a damp,
dreary pattern with plenty of low clouds and precipitation. The
main area of low pressure will exit the region by Wednesday,
however the upper level low will allow for more scattered
showers in Maine and New Hampshire. A weak ridge of high
pressure to follow.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday night/...Conditions are generally
LIFR to IFR at this time with showers along the coast and fog
and stratus elsewhere. Some improvement to IFR/MVFR is expected
this morning...however southerly winds will keep a marine layer
in place with stratus and fog persisting in spots. Showers will
arrive generally from west to east this evening possible
bringing briefly gusty winds and -TSRA to MHT...LEB...CON...and
HIE.

Long Term...VFR conditions are expected Friday except in the
mountains where lower conditions in showers are expected. More
widespread MVFR/IFR conditions are possible Friday night in rain
with improving conditions for Saturday. More rain and low
ceiling and visibilities expected Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Winds/seas stay below SCA levels through Thursday.

Long Term...Winds and seas should stay below SCA criteria,
however periods of rain and fog will make for poor marine
conditions at times through the weekend. Low pressure may
provide gusty northeasterly winds and building seas early next
week.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

JC/MLE

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Gray ME
129 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

MEZ007-008-012-013-NHZ001>009-011-015-011730-
Northern Oxford-Northern Franklin-Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-
Northern Coos-Southern Coos-Northern Grafton-Northern Carroll-
Southern Grafton-Southern Carroll-Sullivan-Merrimack-Belknap-
Cheshire-Western And Central Hillsborough-
129 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western Maine, New Hampshire,
central New Hampshire, northern New Hampshire and southern New
Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ009-011730-
Central Somerset-
129 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for west central Maine.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the region this afternoon and
evening. A few thunderstorms could be severe with large hail and
damaging winds being the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

MEZ014-018>028-NHZ010-013-014-011730-
Southern Somerset-Interior York-Interior Cumberland-Androscoggin-
Kennebec-Interior Waldo-Coastal York-Coastal Cumberland-Sagadahoc-
Lincoln-Knox-Coastal Waldo-Strafford-Interior Rockingham-
Coastal Rockingham-
129 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Maine, south central Maine,
southwest Maine, central New Hampshire and southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms will affect the region this afternoon and
evening. There is a marginal threat that a few thunderstorms could
be strong with small hail and gusty winds being the main threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

NHZ012-011730-
Eastern Hillsborough-
129 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 300 IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern New Hampshire.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

ANZ150>154-011730-
Coastal Waters from Stonington, ME to Port Clyde, ME out 25 NM-
Penobscot Bay-
Coastal Waters from Port Clyde, ME to Cape Elizabeth, ME out 25 NM-
Casco Bay-
Coastal Waters from Cape Elizabeth, ME to Merrimack River, MA out
25 NM-
129 PM EDT Wed May 31 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Atlantic coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.

Widely scattered thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Weather spotters are encouraged to report significant weather
 conditions according to Standard Operating Procedures.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
620 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

MEZ007-008-012-013-NHZ002-004-312315-
Northern Oxford-Southern Oxford-Southern Franklin-Northern
Franklin-Southern Coos-Northern Carroll-
620 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT CENTRAL OXFORD...
SOUTHWESTERN FRANKLIN...EASTERN COOS AND NORTHEASTERN CARROLL
COUNTIES...

At 620 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 12 miles southwest of Rangeley to 8 miles
southwest of Bethel. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Bethel, Rumford, Rangeley, Jay, Dixfield, Canton, Andover, Grafton,
Wilton, Phillips, Weld, Mexico, Waterford, Buckfield, Hebron,
Hartford, Lovell, Greenwood, Carthage and Avon.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4499 7037 4463 7021 4420 7042 4419 7105
      4492 7094
TIME...MOT...LOC 2220Z 249DEG 25KT 4485 7085 4430 7087

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
640 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

MEZ012-018>020-NHZ004-006-312345-
Southern Oxford-Androscoggin-Interior York-Interior
Cumberland-Southern Carroll-Northern Carroll-
640 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN YORK...
SOUTHERN OXFORD...WEST CENTRAL ANDROSCOGGIN...NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND
AND EAST CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTIES...

At 639 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 10 miles west of Waterford to near
Tamworth. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Conway, Bridgton, Fryeburg, Mechanic Falls, Naples, Turner,
Moultonborough, Ossipee, Hiram, Effingham, Cornish, Waterford,
Tamworth, Sandwich, Casco, Limington, Harrison, Madison, Buckfield
and Brownfield.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4425 7025 4375 7070 4378 7140 4423 7093
TIME...MOT...LOC 2239Z 257DEG 31KT 4420 7092 4385 7134

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
707 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

MEZ008-009-012>014-018>021-NHZ006-010000-
Southern Oxford-Androscoggin-Interior York-Interior
Cumberland-Southern Franklin-Kennebec-Southern Somerset-Northern
Franklin-Central Somerset-Southern Carroll-
707 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT WESTERN KENNEBEC...
NORTH CENTRAL YORK...SOUTHEASTERN OXFORD...ANDROSCOGGIN...SOUTH
CENTRAL SOMERSET...NORTHWESTERN CUMBERLAND...SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN
AND EAST CENTRAL CARROLL COUNTIES...

At 706 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from 6 miles north of Phillips to near Canton
to 6 miles north of Effingham. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and half inch hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lewiston, Farmington, Fairfield, Bridgton, Fryeburg, Mechanic Falls,
Skowhegan, Naples, Turner, Oakland, Gorham, Buxton, Gray, Madison,
Jay, Belgrade, Livermore Falls, Manchester, Dixfield and Hiram.

This includes Interstate 95 between mile markers 60 and 86.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4503 6968 4448 6974 4368 7046 4383 7106
      4446 7047 4498 7039
TIME...MOT...LOC 2306Z 270DEG 27KT 4491 7030 4447 7037 4385 7103

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
709 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

MEZ018-NHZ005>013-015-010015-
Interior York-Merrimack-Belknap-Strafford-Western And Central
Hillsborough-Southern Carroll-Interior Rockingham-Cheshire-Eastern
Hillsborough-Southern Grafton-Sullivan-
709 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

...A LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN YORK...
NORTHWESTERN ROCKINGHAM...SOUTHEASTERN SULLIVAN...NORTHWESTERN
STRAFFORD...SOUTHEASTERN GRAFTON...EASTERN CHESHIRE...HILLSBOROUGH...
BELKNAP...MERRIMACK AND SOUTHERN CARROLL COUNTIES...

At 708 PM EDT, radar indicated strong thunderstorms were located
along a line extending from near Moultonborough to near New London to
near Royalston. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and dime size hail are possible with these
storms.

Locations impacted include...
Manchester, Nashua, Concord, Derry, Keene, Laconia, Franklin,
Jaffrey, Henniker, New London, Merrimack, Moultonborough, Ossipee,
Meredith, Northwood, Bedford, Milford, Hooksett, Amherst and
Winchendon.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 293 between mile markers 1 and 11.
 Interstate 89 between mile markers 0 and 33.
 Interstate 93 between mile markers 14 and 71.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
cause localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4272 7230 4335 7212 4380 7140 4370 7071
      4343 7110 4270 7145
TIME...MOT...LOC 2308Z 245DEG 32KT 4377 7128 4335 7195 4265 7220

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
722 PM EDT WED MAY 31 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0654 PM     HAIL             MADISON                 43.90N  71.15W
05/31/2017  M1.00 INCH       CARROLL            NH   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1704003

JC

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