Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2017

Wind Advisory 6, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

March 10, 201717 counties in North Carolina

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Mar 10, 2017, 3:53 AM EST for 17 counties in North Carolina. It was in force for 17 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Mar 10, 2017, 3:53 AM EST (08:53 UTC)
Expired
Mar 10, 2017, 9:00 PM EST
In force
17 hr
Issued by
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Counties Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Graham County, NC, Haywood County, NC, Henderson County, NC, Jackson County, NC, Macon County, NC, Madison County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Swain County, NC, Transylvania County, NC, Yancey County, NC

The radar

The Greer radar (KGSP), 83 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:52 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 00:00Z, 8.9 hours before the alert went out and 244 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2017-03-10Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC at 00:00Z on 2017-03-10The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 78 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
3561 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
78 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
192 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

334 
WWUS72 KGSP 100853
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
353 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...WINDY TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS 
PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...

.A cold airmass will spill into the region from the northwest
today, remaining in place through the weekend. This will bring
very gusty winds, especially over the mountains. Subfreezing 
temperatures are likely to develop after midnight tonight over
much of western North Carolina. This is a cause for concern in the
northwest Piedmont and northern Foothills areas of North Carolina,
where the growing season is already active due to relatively warm
temperatures experienced in January and February.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508-101700-
/O.UPG.KGSP.FZ.A.0003.170311T0600Z-170311T1400Z/
/O.NEW.KGSP.FZ.W.0003.170311T0600Z-170311T1400Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, 
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, 
St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, 
Crouse, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, 
Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, 
Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, and Spindale
353 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Freeze Warning, which is in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM EST
Saturday. The Freeze Watch is no longer in effect.

* LOCATIONS...The North Carolina foothills and northwest Piedmont,
  along Interstate 40, east of the Blue Ridge.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows around 30.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive plants may be damaged or killed by freezing
  temperatures. Action will be necessary in order to protect these
  plants from the cold, such as by covering them or bringing them
  indoors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-101700-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.170310T0853Z-170311T0200Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, 
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, 
Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, 
Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, 
Woodlawn, Old Fort, and Saluda
353 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Wind Advisory, which is in effect until 9 PM EST this evening.

* LOCATIONS...The mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Frequent strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Winds will pick up sharply in the mid to late morning,
  remaining very gusty until after sunset. The strongest gusts are
  likely to occur in the early afternoon.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph in
  populated areas. Gusts of 50 mph or more may occur on the higher
  ridgetops.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Outdoor items such
  as patio furniture and trash cans may be blown over.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$
Wimberley
3 follow-up statements
550 
WWUS72 KGSP 101651
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1151 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...WINDY TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS 
PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...

.A cold airmass will continue to push into the region from the 
northwest this afternoon and remain in place through the weekend.
This will bring very gusty winds, especially over the mountains. 
Subfreezing temperatures are likely to develop after midnight 
tonight over much of western North Carolina. This is a cause for 
concern in the northwest Piedmont and northern Foothills areas of 
North Carolina, where the growing season is already active due to 
relatively warm temperatures experienced in January and February.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508-110200-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0003.170311T0600Z-170311T1400Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, 
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, 
St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, 
Crouse, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, 
Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, 
Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, and Spindale
1151 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...The North Carolina foothills and northwest 
  Piedmont, along Interstate 40, east of the Blue Ridge.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows around 30.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive plants may be damaged or killed by freezing
  temperatures. Action will be necessary in order to protect these
  plants from the cold, such as by covering them or bringing them
  indoors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-110200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170311T0200Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, 
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, 
Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, 
Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, 
Woodlawn, Old Fort, and Saluda
1151 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...The mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Frequent strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Winds will remain very gusty until after sunset. The 
  strongest gusts are likely to occur in the early afternoon.

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 45 mph. Stronger
  gusts up to 55 mph can be expected across the higher mountain
  elevations. 

* IMPACTS...Strong winds may blow down limbs, trees, and power 
  lines. Scattered power outages are expected. Outdoor items such
  as patio furniture and trash cans may be blown over.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

Krentz
974 
WWUS72 KGSP 101916
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
216 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...WINDY TODAY IN THE MOUNTAINS...FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS
PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...

A cold airmass will continue to push into the region from the
northwest this afternoon and remain in place through the weekend.
This has brought very gusty winds, especially over the mountains.
Sub-freezing temperatures are likely to develop after midnight 
tonight over much of western North Carolina. This is a cause for 
concern in the northwest Piedmont and northern Foothills areas of 
North Carolina, where the growing season is already active due to 
relatively warm temperatures experienced in January and February.


NCZ070-110330-
/O.EXA.KGSP.FZ.W.0003.170311T0600Z-170311T1400Z/
Gaston-
Including the city of Gastonia
216 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...FREEZE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg has issued
a Freeze Warning, which is in effect from 1 AM to 9 AM EST
Saturday.

* LOCATION...Gaston County.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows around 30.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive plants may be damaged or killed by freezing
  temperatures. Action will be necessary in order to protect these
  plants from the cold, such as by covering them or bringing them
  indoors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508-110330-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0003.170311T0600Z-170311T1400Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, 
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, 
St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, 
Crouse, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, Morganton, 
Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, Fero, 
Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, and Spindale
216 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...The North Carolina foothills and northwest 
  Piedmont, along Interstate 40, east of the Blue Ridge.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows around 30.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive plants may be damaged or killed by freezing
  temperatures. Action will be necessary in order to protect these
  plants from the cold, such as by covering them or bringing them
  indoors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-110200-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170311T0200Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, 
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, 
Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, 
Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, 
Woodlawn, Old Fort, and Saluda
216 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* LOCATIONS...The mountains of western North Carolina.

* HAZARDS...Frequent strong wind gusts.

* TIMING...Winds will remain very gusty with a gradual decrease
  through the evening and overnight. 

* WINDS...Northwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. Stronger
  gusts up to 55 mph can be expected across the higher mountain 
  elevations. 

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree 
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result. Stronger
  gusts up to 55 mph can be expected across the higher mountain
  elevations. 


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Advisory means that winds of 35 mph are expected. Winds
this strong can make driving difficult...especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio or your favorite source of
weather information for the latest updates. Additional details
can be found at www.weather.gov/gsp.

&&

$$

Krentz
631 
WWUS72 KGSP 110204
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
904 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...A FREEZE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTH CAROLINA 
FOOTHILLS AND NORTHWEST PIEDMONT...

A cold airmass will continue to push into the region from the
northwest tonight and remain in place through the weekend. Sub- 
freezing temperatures are likely to develop after midnight tonight
over much of western North Carolina. This is a cause for concern 
in the northwest Piedmont and northern Foothills areas of North 
Carolina, where the growing season is already active due to 
relatively warm temperatures experienced in January and February.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-110315-
/O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0006.000000T0000Z-170311T0200Z/
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
Including the cities of Ingalls, Banner Elk, Newland, Faust, 
Mars Hill, Marshall, Walnut, Allenstand, Hot Springs, Luck, 
Swiss, Burnsville, Celo, Micaville, Ramseytown, Busick, 
Spruce Pine, Poplar, Alarka, Almond, Bryson City, Luada, Wesser, 
Waynesville, Waterville, Canton, Cruso, Cove Creek, Asheville, 
Robbinsville, Stecoah, Cullowhee, Tuckasegee, Sylva, Franklin, 
Rainbow Springs, Kyle, Highlands, Wolf Mountain, Cashiers, 
Brevard, Cedar Mountain, Little River, Hendersonville, Fletcher, 
Dana, East Flat Rock, Tuxedo, Etowah, Jonas Ridge, Ashford, 
Woodlawn, Old Fort, and Saluda
904 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED...

Gusty winds will linger through the rest of the evening, but will
continue to gradually weaken through the night.

$$

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-502-504-506-508-111015-
/O.CON.KGSP.FZ.W.0003.170311T0600Z-170311T1400Z/
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-Eastern McDowell-
Greater Rutherford-
Including the cities of Bethlehem, Ellendale, Millersville, 
Taylorsville, Hiddenite, Stony Point, Statesville, Mooresville, 
Farmington, Fork Church, Mocksville, Advance, Hickory, Newton, 
St. Stephens, Salisbury, Shelby, Kings Mountain, Lincolnton, 
Crouse, Gastonia, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills, Granite Falls, 
Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo, Dysartsville, 
Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton, and Spindale
904 PM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

...FREEZE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST
SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...The North Carolina foothills and northwest 
  Piedmont, along Interstate 40, east of the Blue Ridge.

* TEMPERATURES...Lows around 30.

* IMPACTS...Sensitive plants may be damaged or killed by freezing
  temperatures. Action will be necessary in order to protect these
  plants from the cold, such as by covering them or bringing them
  indoors.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Freeze Warning means sub-freezing temperatures are imminent or
highly likely. These conditions will kill crops and other
sensitive vegetation.

&&

$$

ARK

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Mar 10, 3:42 AM EST, 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 10, 3:42 AM EST, 11 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
342 AM EST Fri Mar 10 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front moves off the Carolina coast today as cold Canadian
high pressure builds in from the north. Low pressure spreads rain
and snow across our region Saturday night into early Sunday. Expect
a brief period of dry weather Sunday night and Monday before another
systems brings some snow to our region Monday night and Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 300 AM: Decaying MCS stretches from north Georgia westward
to north Mississippi. This activity was initiated ahead of a cold
front which now straddles the lower Ohio Valley, and the related
potent shortwave trough. The most unstable air in the region is
present over central AL/GA, where the low-level jet has supplied
a remarkable plume of moisture. Though the convection still looks
healthy entering that area, the northern end of the line has
lost steam as it entered more stable air over the mountains of
SW NC and NE GA. A small amount of instability will accompany the
remnant rain shield across the forecast area early this morning;
scattered lightning strikes are being sensed within it, and those
should only gradually diminish in coverage with time. The rain
is expected to taper off and/or move out of our eastern zones a
couple hours after sunrise.

As colder air pushes into the mountains, a deep mixed layer develops
between a strong subsidence inversion; prog profiles from some
models indicate shallow convective updrafts near the TN/NC border
late morning to midday. If sfc temps were near enough freezing
these might be snow showers, but it appears the sfc should still
be warm enough to only advertise these as rain. A 6-7 mb pressure
gradient across the mountains will drive brisk and gusty winds;
modeled gusts easily top 40 kt in high elevations and nearly so
even in the valleys. The setup warrants a wind advisory which
will last until 9 pm this evening. Downsloping and sunshine should
keep max temps above normal, particularly over the SC/GA Piedmont,
where many locations will reach 70. Of course, given such warm temps
and crashing dewpoints associated with the Arctic airmass, RH will
drop to near critical levels again. See Fire Weather section below.

Tonight, there remains enough of a pressure gradient across the
region that a light wind should persist in most areas. Accordingly,
low-level profiles remain somewhat mixed, and high clouds will
increase with the approach of the next jet streak. Together these
suggest limited radiative cooling. However, given the chilly
airmass, nearly all guidance members (even raw models) still dip
temps a degree or two below freezing over the NC Piedmont, where
a freeze watch had been hoisted yesterday. Thus the watch has been
upgraded to a warning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EST Friday: Part of what meteorologists love about our
jobs is that it's never dull. Tonight is no exception; after a
lovely spring day (Thursday) across the western Carolinas and NE GA,
confidence is increasing in winter storm potential Saturday night
into Sunday, especially across western NC. As for the synoptic
setup, we begin the short term with unseasonably cold (even moreso
because this season has been unseasonably warm) Canadian/Arctic high
pressure ridging down across the Upper Midwest and toward the
Southern Appalachians, with strong deep-layer CAA in the wake of the
near-term frontal passage. Meanwhile a shortwave coming off the
Rockies into the Central Plains will stretch vertically and deepen
on Saturday, inducing surface cyclogenesis in the lee of the Rockies
across the OK/TX Panhandles. Guidance is coming into better and
better agreement with the warm front stretching east across TN, with
warm frontal precip associated with it reaching the Southern
Appalachians just after 00z Sunday.  Channeled vort max along and
north of the warm front will correspond with the right entrance
region of the polar jet, with an impressive amount of synoptic lift
collocated with mesoscale frontogenetical forcing along the warm
front overnight. Best indications of mesoscale banding look to be
generally 00-06z Sunday with an area of very low equivalent
potential vorticity rising from about 700mb over the mountains early
to just below 500mb over the NC Piedmont toward the end of the 6-hr
period, above an area of frontogenesis between 700-850mb. Meanwhile
a cold mesohigh progged to develop in the lee of the Appalachians
will induce a sort of hybrid damming scenario early Sunday, so even
with precipitation continuing to slide southeast during the day and
clearing behind it, temperatures Sunday will have a hard time
warming with low-level CAA remaining, and will be a lot closer to
seasonal lows...really, a January system.

With the cold air aloft, no question as to p-type coming down the
column...really just a matter of surface T/Tw. GFS and NAM remain
slightly colder but the ECMWF continues to trend that way. On the
flip side, especially the farther east you go into the Piedmont,
guidance is trending drier at onset, and continues to trend toward
less deep-layer moisture. However with such deep cold air aloft,
raised the "all snow" threshold to start at Tw=34deg, with a mix
starting at 36deg, but this could easily be too warm. So as a
result, what we have is rain/snow mix beginning in the NC mountains
Saturday afternoon, with transition to all snow at lower elevations
after 00z Sunday. As temperatures drop overnight, the snow/mix line
shifts south toward the state line (uncannily so). Portions of the
Upstate especially along the Upper Savannah Valley will likely see
just a cold rain, but a rain/snow mix can be expected for the
eastern portion of the Upstate. Cannot rule out a trace of snow as
far south as GSP, and current grids have about 1" for CLT (note
that's the airport; with current grids south Meck might barely see a
trace with north Meck closer to 1.5"), which would warrant a Winter
Weather Advisory for the NC Piedmont (too early for that though) but
the real event will be across the NC mountains, where 3-5" can be
expected, with higher peaks receiving over 7". This is not really
taking into account any mesoscale banding that might occur, so
additional adjustment may be needed. (As a note, 03z SREF probs
coming in continue to increase; we now have a sliver of 10% >8" over
the TN/NC line in Madison/Yancey Counties.) Winter Storm Warning
criteria are 4" in 12h or 5" in 24h, so seems prudent at this time
to issue a Winter Storm Watch for most the mountains (confidence
much lower in reaching criteria for extreme SW NC mountains so left
Macon/S Jackson/Transylvania/Henderson out). Upgrades and
additional short-fused products (likely an Advisory as mentioned
above for portions of the Piedmont) will be considered either
later today or tonight.

Cannot rule out that as drying filters in aloft, light rain/snow/mix
may lose ice crystals aloft, leading to just some light supercooled
water entering the column, so not entirely out of the question that
this round could end with some light freezing drizzle. Top-down
method would certainly indicate as much but for now have left any
freezing precip out.

So after all this, we can look forward to a very cold night Sunday
night (another round of freeze warnings needed), with blossom-
killing lows in the mid 20s or colder in the mountains and
foothills, perhaps as far east as the NW Piedmont. And then...in
comes the new 00z ECMWF. Strong cold wedge at the surface will
remain in place Sunday night, and the ECMWF lifts the moisture back
up over the cold dome before sunrise Monday morning. This is a bit
of an outlier and current grids do not reflect return of moisture
until later in the day, but stranger things have happened (like
January in March after May in February).

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 140 AM EST Friday:  On Monday, the upper pattern has a trough
over every area east of the Rockies with a ridge over the West
Coast.  A strong clipper type system will be dropping SE across the
Mississippi Valley. The GFS carves out a deep with axis roughly
along the Appalachia Chain by 18Z Tuesday while the ECMWF delays the
deep trough over our region until Wednesday. Atmospheric thickness
values put our area in the deep freeze for mid week with overnight
lows at least. A closed upper low moves NE toward New England in the
second half of the week taking the trough with it as the pattern
deamplifies a bit.

At the surface, low pressure off the NE FL and GA coast begins to
deepen on Monday as the clipper system approaches from the
Mississippi Valley. High pressure centered over eastern Canada
wedges down the Eastern Seaboard across the Carolinas on Monday
between the two low pressure systems. The coastal low deepens as it
moves NE up the coast toward New England Monday night and Tuesday.
All significant precip moves away from our area around daybreak
Tuesday with vort max energy and NW Flow snows remaining Tuesday and
Tuesday night. The NW Flow snow along the NC and TN border areas
gradually ends on Wednesday and support dies off and low level
moisture dries up.  Cold Canadian high pressure should be centered
over or near our region Thursday to end the current forecast. The
GFS has a weak low trying to effect our area late Thursday but fades
toward the Gulf. It is interesting that the GFS forms a giant
upper low to end next weekend near the SC Coast, but fortunately
we have much time for that to change.

Temperatures will be much below normal for this medium range period
with Monday temps around 20 degrees below normal and Wednesdays
temps not much higher. Overall a cold week.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere...Convective line now plowing thru the mid
Tennessee Valley is the feature of interest for the early part of
the TAF period. Though the line is not expected to be nearly as
intense once it reaches the SW NC mtns 08-09z, proceeding eastward
across the sites from there, it could at least bring heavy downpours
to KAVL and subsequently KAND. The chance of significant impacts
decreases from west to east. Enough instby is progged over KAND
to warrant TSRA in its TEMPO. Cold front will arrive behind the
convection; winds shift to NW at KAVL around daybreak, and by late
morning at KCLT. Winds will be quite gusty today given strong
pressure gradient, especially at KAVL, but tonight looks to be
rather settled around the region.

Outlook: A passing low pressure system late Saturday thru Sunday
will bring widespread wintry precipitation to the region, especially
across the mountains, likely generating CIG and VSBY restrictions.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  91%     High  90%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  91%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Today...an arctic airmass will begin to filter in and allow for
another day of good dry mixing. While early morning precip may have
a minor impact on fuel moisture, this will probably not be enough
to preclude the fire danger brought by gusty winds and low RH. In
coordination with other National Weather Service offices across
SC, it has been decided that the statewide Fire Danger Statement
issued Thursday will suffice to highlight these conditions. For
NC, coordination with land managers will occur later this morning,
and may result in a fire danger statement for that state as well.

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for NCZ033-048>053-
     058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509.
     Winter Storm Watch from Saturday evening through Sunday
     morning for NCZ033-048>053-058-059-501-503-505.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Saturday for NCZ035>037-
     056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...Wimberley
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...Wimberley
FIRE WEATHER...Wimberley
Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 9, 7:22 PM EST, 8 hours 31 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
722 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-110030-
Avery-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Caldwell Mountains-Burke Mountains-McDowell Mountains-
Rutherford Mountains-Polk Mountains-
722 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...Winter weather possible. A cold front will bring much
colder air to the region late Friday through Saturday. An area of
low pressure is expected to develop across the Deep South over the
weekend and spread moisture into western North Carolina beginning
Saturday night, with snow developing.
..Sunday...Winter weather possible. Temperatures falling Saturday
night will support mainly snow across the North Carolina mountains,
especially along and north of I-40 and along the higher peaks. A
significant accumulation of snow is possible at elevations above
3500 feet, and at least light accumulations are possible in the
mountain valleys. There remains a great deal of uncertainty as to
how much precipitation will fall and how it will interact with the
cold air that may move into the area over the weekend.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-502-504-506-110030-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-
722 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...Wildfire danger possible. Dry and breezy conditions may
continue.
..Saturday...Winter weather possible. A cold front will bring much
colder air to the region Friday through Saturday. Freezing
temperatures are possible around daybreak Saturday morning. Then, an
area of low pressure is expected to develop across the Deep South
over the weekend and spread moisture into western North Carolina
beginning Saturday night, with snow possibly developing by late
evening.
..Sunday...Winter weather possible. Temperatures falling Saturday
night into Sunday morning will support snow across foothills and
piedmont sections along and north of I-40. Accumulating snowfall
will be possible, with significant accumulations possible closer to
the mountains.
..Monday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are
possible around daybreak Monday.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are
possible throughout the early morning hours Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-SCZ001>003-110030-
Rabun-Habersham-Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-
Greenville Mountains-
722 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia and upstate
South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...Wildfire danger possible. Dry and breezy conditions may
continue.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ018-026-028-029-NCZ070>072-082-510-SCZ004>014-019-110030-
Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Eastern Polk-Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-
Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-
Greenwood-
722 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...Wildfire danger possible. Dry and breezy conditions may
continue.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are
possible around daybreak Monday.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are
possible throughout the early morning hours Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ068-069-508-110030-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Greater Rutherford-
722 PM EST Thu Mar 9 2017

...FREEZE WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...Wildfire danger possible. Dry and breezy conditions may
continue.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are
possible around daybreak Monday.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...Frost/freeze possible. Subfreezing temperatures are
possible throughout the early morning hours Wednesday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 10, 3:53 AM ESTFreeze WarningGSPAlexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, Cleveland, Davie and 6 more29 hr
Mar 10, 3:55 AM ESTWinter Storm WatchGSPAvery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Graham, Haywood and 6 more12 hr
Mar 10, 3:33 PM ESTWinter Storm WatchGSPHenderson, Jackson, Macon, Transylvania12 hr
Mar 10, 3:33 PM ESTWinter Storm WarningGSPAvery, Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Graham, Haywood and 9 more36 hr
Mar 10, 3:33 PM ESTWinter Weather AdvisoryGSPAlexander, Avery, Buncombe, Burke, Cabarrus, Caldwell and 22 more42 hr

Nearby

Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2017Every wind advisory in 2017

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.