Tornado Warning 17, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
510 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Numerous rounds of showers and potentially severe thunderstorms are
expected this evening as the remnants of Harvey move into the Ohio
Valley and a front persists across western North Carolina. Warmer
and drier high pressure behind Harvey will result in a return to
near normal temperatures by early next week. A cold front will
approach from the west by the middle of next week, increasing rain
chances once again.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 505 PM EDT: First line of storms has moved east of the area. A
second line is moving out of the foothills into the western
Piedmont. The southern end of the line is showing signs of weakening
while the northern end remains strong. A third area of showers and
isolated storms is moving across the western portions of the CWFA.
Have canceled the watch behind the second line of storms. Strong to
severe storms are still possible ahead of this line.

Otherwise: the circulation center of the Harvey remnants have moved
northeast of Nashville to near the TN/KY border. The center will
continue northeastward toward the Ohio valley tonight, and then
onward to the southern Great Lakes through Saturday. The broad wind
field around the system is producing a southerly low level jet
around 40 kt which is transiting the western Carolinas and northeast
GA late this afternoon. The LLJ will very slowly diminish and veer
more WSW overnight, before turning more westerly through Saturday.
The main hazard window will continue through mid evening and a TOR
watch has been posted across the eastern Upstate and much of the NC
foothills and piedmont through 10 pm this evening, though western
sections should be cancelled much sooner. This watch is supported by
the convection-allowing models developing widespread and robust
convection especially along I-77 through the late afternoon/early
evening hours. SBCAPE values have reached 2000 to 2500 J/kg in these
areas. In addition, a backdoor cold front appears to be settling
around the I-40 corridor. The best surface to 6 km bulk shear values
around 50 kt will be over I-77 corridor locations, and sfc to 1 km
helicity will likely maximize right along or just south of the
stalled front. Showers will dissipate from the southwest through the
early overnight hours, but might continued over the mountains nearer
the passing remnants.

An upper level jet with strengthen over or just east of the
Appalachians on Saturday as a trough lingers west of the mountain
chain, but profiles will be drier and westerly flow will provide
downsloping east of the mountains. Any deeper moisture for lingering
showers through Saturday will affect mainly the TN border counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 2:30 PM EDT Friday:  We still have a rather sharp H5/H7 trough
to move across the area Saturday night. A batch of clouds will cross
the northern sections of our forecast area (FA), with a few showers
in the mountains. Those will wane during the overnight. Elsewhere,
quiet weather will be the rule Saturday night, and clouds in our NC
western piedmont counties will be exiting east.

Otherwise, we remain under a broad cyclonic flow aloft right into
Labor Day, but it will be easing. At the surface a bubble of high
pressure will edge into the region Sunday with dry conditions.

The high will move east on Labor Day but will still control our
weather regime for the Holiday. Weak surface troughing tries to
develop in the mountains, but overall dry conditions will prevail.

Temperatures late in the weekend, and into Labor Day, will edge up a
degree or two.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1200 PM EDT Friday: Early AFD today because of the threat of
svr wx this PM. Anyways...the medium range picks up with a
relatively quiet day on Tuesday with a wedge of dry air still in
place over the forecast area. Rapid moistening and height falls will
occur Tuesday night and Wednesday as an upper level trough dives
towards the southeast CONUS and a surface frontal boundary lines up
across the OH River Valley/southern Appalachians. An increase in QPF
response is expected through the day on Wednesday and into the
evening as the front moves southeastward through the forecast area.
Rainfall totals do not look particularly impressive at the moment,
though confidence is increasing in a widespread rain event across
much of the region. Drier air is allowed to work into the forecast
area by Thursday afternoon as the trough axis passes through the
Carolinas, and remains through the end of the medium range. A quick
note about Irma - confidence is increasing in model solutions that
show recurvature of the hurricane back out into the Atlantic,
greatly limiting impacts in our area. Considering it is hurricane
season, though, we encourage everyone to be prepared and remain
aware of the forecast.

Finally, temperatures will begin the period near to just above
average, decreasing to almost 10 degrees below average by the middle
of next week as cloud cover overspreads the area and upper heights
fall.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
At KCLT: TSRA coverage increased rapidly around the airfield this
afternoon, but continues to move off to the east approaching 19Z.
Another round is likely from the Upstate activity through at least 6
pm, with decent chances as late as 9 pm. Expect mainly MVFR cigs but
with IFR conditions under the heaviest downpours along with gusts to
30 kt or better. Precipitation should taper to showers through the
early morning hours, and MVFR to possibly IFR cigs may descend from
the NW NC piedmont toward daybreak. The rest of Saturday looks
mainly dry with a more SW to W component to the flow.

Elsewhere: Strong TSRA will cross all the airfields, first from KAVL
to KGSP to KAND this afternoon and then onward to KHKY through 23Z.
Expect IFR to MVFR conditions in the heaviest downpours and gusts to
30 kt or better. Conditions will improve from the southwest through
the evening hours, with lingering SHRA affecting KHKY the latest
overnight. Expect lowering restrictions, likely IFR, to impact KHKY
and possibly KAVL overnight through early Saturday morning.
Conditions will dry further east of the mountains through Saturday
with westerly downsloping flow developing.

Outlook: Drier high pressure will settle overhead late this weekend
into early next week. Another cold front will approach from the
northwest next Tuesday into Wednesday.

Confidence Table...

            21-03z        03-09Z        09-15Z        15-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High  85%     Med   69%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High 100%
KAVL       High  95%     Med   79%     Med   66%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   63%     Low   57%     High  81%     High  89%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...Wind Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for NCZ051-052-058-
     059-062-063.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...HG/RWH
SHORT TERM...TS
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...HG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
512 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>050-053-064-065-068-501>510-
SCZ001>008-010>013-019-022115-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Madison-Yancey-
Mitchell-Buncombe-Transylvania-Henderson-Cleveland-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-Anderson-
Abbeville-Laurens-Union-Greenwood-
512 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible early this evening. Cloud to
ground lightning and brief gusty winds are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

NCZ035>037-056-057-069>072-082-SCZ009-014-022115-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-
Cabarrus-Union-York-Chester-
512 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...TORNADO WATCH 477 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.

There is also a lingering heavy rain threat, and isolated flash
flooding will be possible in any areas repeatedly affected by
thunderstorms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

NCZ051-052-058-059-062-063-022115-
Swain-Haywood-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-
512 PM EDT Fri Sep 1 2017

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

An isolated thunderstorm is possible early this evening. Cloud to
ground lightning and brief gusty winds are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
328 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0253 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 SE UPTOWN CHARLOTTE   35.18N 80.79W
09/01/2017                   MECKLENBURG        NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            FIRE DEPT/RESCUE REPORTED POWER LINES DOWN ON WATER OAK
            RD. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
333 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

NCZ057-072-012000-
Rowan NC-Cabarrus NC-
333 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CABARRUS AND
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM EDT...

At 332 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles east of Salisbury, or near High Rock Lake, moving northeast at
35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Downtown Concord, Kannapolis, Granite Quarry, Rockwell, Mt Pleasant,
Faith, Midland, High Rock Lake, Finger and Gold Hill.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3550 8029 3521 8048 3523 8055 3549 8062
      3572 8036 3572 8034 3571 8032 3568 8033
      3567 8031 3563 8029 3562 8025 3558 8021
      3555 8021 3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1932Z 229DEG 29KT 3565 8033

WJM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     TSTM WND DMG     LANDIS                  35.55N 80.62W
09/01/2017                   ROWAN              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            BROADCAST MEDIA REPORTED POWER LINES DOWN ON BEAVER
            CORRELL AND UPRIGHT STREETS IN LANDIS

&&

LEC

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
453 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

NCZ035-036-056-502-012145-
Iredell NC-Greater Caldwell NC-Alexander NC-Catawba NC-
453 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CATAWBA...ALEXANDER...NORTHERN
IREDELL AND EAST CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 453 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles west of Taylorsville to 6 miles northeast
of Hickory to 6 miles north of Lincolnton, and moving northeast at 35
mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Statesville, Newton, Taylorsville, Hickory, St. Stephens, Conover,
Bethlehem, Maiden, Troutman and Stony Point.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph, pea size hail and torrential rainfall rates
up to 3 inches per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for western and
the Piedmont of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3605 8074 3571 8084 3555 8117 3556 8134
      3573 8129 3588 8144 3602 8128 3604 8119
      3603 8117 3604 8113 3603 8107 3606 8098
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 229DEG 32KT 3588 8132 3578 8122 3557 8129

08

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
558 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

NCZ036-037-056-057-069-071-012300-
Rowan NC-Davie NC-Iredell NC-Lincoln NC-Mecklenburg NC-Catawba NC-
558 PM EDT FRI SEP 1 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN CATAWBA...SOUTHEASTERN DAVIE...SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...
EASTERN LINCOLN...NORTH CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND WESTERN ROWAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM EDT...

At 558 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms with
intense lightning along a line extending from 8 miles south of
Statesville to 10 miles northwest of Huntersville, and moving east at
20 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Salisbury, Cornelius, Mooresville, Davidson, Landis, Westport,
Troutman, Cooleemee, Cleveland and Lake Norman.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 45 mph, pea size
hail and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches per hour will be
possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

Frequent lightning is occurring with these storms. If outdoors, try
to get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away
from open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When
indoors, stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired
electronic devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug
unnecessary appliances before the storms approach.

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and
tv stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 1000 PM EDT for the Piedmont
of North Carolina.

LAT...LON 3589 8040 3588 8042 3586 8039 3584 8040
      3585 8042 3583 8043 3583 8046 3584 8047
      3583 8049 3581 8047 3579 8048 3577 8045
      3554 8061 3551 8078 3550 8079 3542 8111
      3570 8092 3592 8037 3589 8037
TIME...MOT...LOC 2158Z 248DEG 17KT 3567 8089 3552 8099

08

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
646 PM EDT FRI SEP 01 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0524 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 W STATESVILLE         35.78N 80.96W
09/01/2017                   IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            2 OR 3 TREES DOWN NEAR LITTLE FARM ROAD.

0533 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W TROUTMAN            35.70N 80.91W
09/01/2017                   IREDELL            NC   911 CALL CENTER

            ONE TREE DOWN ON WEST SIDE OF TROUTMAN.

&&

OUTLAW