Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
236 PM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A series of systems will keep the weather unsettled this week, with
rain chances persisting through Thursday. Cold air will arrive by
mid-week, dropping temperatures well below average through next
weekend. Another system will approach the area by early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Scattered convection continues to fire along the interface between
rain cooled air and weakly/modestly unstable air extending from
north GA through the eastern Piedmont of SC, where sbCAPE is
currently analyzed between 500-1000 J/kg. Within the strongly
sheared environment, cells that do develop within areas of
instability will continue to exhibit organized structure, and there
has been at least one severe storm today across the TN valley, so a
low end severe threat is expected to continue into the evening
across our area, primarily the Upstate and northeast GA. Surface
winds are quite veered in the warm sector, so damaging winds would
be the primary threat, but I suppose a brief tornado cannot be ruled
out in association with any linear segments.  The threat, such as it
is, should end with the passage of a sfc wave/front and diurnal
cooling this evening.

Cold front is expected to begin back dooring into the forecast area
this evening, and will gradually ooze SW through the overnight,
with a strong consensus that the boundary will be clear of the area
by 12Z Wed, leaving hybrid cold air damming in its wake. That being
the case, tomorrow's max temps are likely to occur at midnight
tonight, with temps slowly falling in most areas through the night,
and remaining steady or slowly falling through Wednesday. While a
lull in precipitation is expected by the end of this evening, deep
layer moisture is expected to increase toward daybreak, as another
round of height falls overspreads the region. However, most of the
forcing is expected to be confined within the mid-levels, as low
level upglide will be virtually non-existent above the developing
surface cold pool (where the flow veers to westerly). As such, model
qpf response is quite muted on Wed, and pops will only be featured
in the token chance range. If anything, the character of the precip
type could trend more toward the drizzle end of the spectrum.
Otherwise, tomorrow will be cool and clammy, with maxes 10-15
degrees below climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 PM EST Tuesday:  The short range fcst period kicks off
on Wednesday evening amidst swly quasizonal flow aloft across the
southern Appalachians, while another weak/open shortwave slides
through the MS Delta.  At the surface a cool/dry high pressure
wedge will dominate atop northeast GA and the western Carolinas
while weak upglide promotes lingering showers across much of the
region.  The aforementioned upper wave will move atop the area into
Thursday morning providing enhanced synoptic lift, thus warranting
continuation of elevated pops.  Fortunately the airmass should
be stable thus no thunderstorms are expected.  This wave will
eject eastward through the day Thursday allowing for subsidence
in its wake amidst dry nly/nwly flow.  High pressure to the nw
will gradually build into the region from the w, however with
its nearly 1038mb center moving eastward across the Great Lakes
region into the end of the period.  With that, a dry back door
cold front will intrude late in the day on Friday leading to the
onset of another period of cold temperatures to start the weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EST Tuesday: The medium range begins Friday night as
much drier air works into the area and a wedge of cold surface high
pressure slides down the spine of the Appalachians. Saturday will be
dry and chilly, with some of the coolest highs we've seen this
season across the area. A shallow upper trough will depart off the
east coast as the upper flow across the CONUS briefly flattens on
Saturday before another shortwave digs into the southeast Sunday
night. Guidance is still in poor agreement as to the timing of this
shortwave and any attendant moisture, as well as how quickly the
surface cold air damming will persist in our area. Considering the
favorably-placed 1034 parent high and how far south the cold air is
able to penetrate in the current global models, will go with
persisting the wedge through Sunday. Moisture may arrive as early as
Sunday night, with conditions likely favorable for the development
of upslope precip across the area. The ECMWF favors this solution,
while the GFS sweeps the upper wave through the area with anemic
moisture and very little QPF response outside of the higher terrain.
The current forecast features chance pops Sunday into Monday, but
remains low confidence due to the disagreement in the handling of
the next upper wave. Temperatures Saturday and Sunday will be 15-20
degrees below average before moderating to about a category below
average early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Area of rain, along with isolated to widely
scattered convection will push east of most of the terminals through
about 19Z. At that point, the main concern will be the potential for
redevelopment, as a cold front continues to push into the region from
the west and the north. Convection across north GA is expected to
continue moving SE along an instability axis, meaning that KAND will
see (by far) the best chances for TSRA this afternoon, and a tempo
has been continued there from 19-21Z. TSRA cannot be ruled out
across the other Piedmont sites, but confidence in quite low, and
opted to bring a VCSH in at most terminals at around 20Z, continuing
through the evening. Between rounds of precip, cigs may settle into
LIFR/IFR for the next couple of hours, but a general improving trend
is expected from mid-afternoon on, with VFR expected at most
terminals by early evening.

Cold front will begin pushing through the area from the northeast
this evening, and should clear most of the terminals by around
sunrise Wed. Reduced visby and perhaps low cigs are possible ahead
of the front, but once fropa occurs, visby should improve in
response to NE winds increasing to around 10 kts, while cigs are
expected to settle into IFR. IFR cigs should then persist through
the end of the period. Periods of -RA and/or -DZ will be possible
tomorrow morning through the end of the period.

Outlook: Expect widespread IFR/MVFR restrictions to continue  thru
Thursday. Clearing is expected for the end of the work week, with
dry/cool weather expected to persist into the early part of the
weekend.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       Low   58%     Med   78%     Low   50%     Low   47%
KGSP       High  88%     High  91%     Med   76%     Med   72%
KAVL       Med   62%     Med   72%     Med   77%     High  82%
KHKY       High  94%     Med   73%     Low   53%     Low   47%
KGMU       High  89%     High  92%     Med   73%     Med   74%
KAND       High  92%     High  96%     Med   78%     High  83%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Carroll
NEAR TERM...JDL
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...Carroll
AVIATION...JDL

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1045 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

NCZ033-035>037-048>050-053-056-057-501>506-081545-
Avery-Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Buncombe-
Catawba-Rowan-Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-
Greater Burke-McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-
1045 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
western North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.
A weak wave of low pressure will cross the region today, lifting a
frontal boundary northward briefly, before the front drops back
south as the wave exits to the east tonight. A few thunderstorms may
develop along and south of the boundary this afternoon through this
evening. The main threats will be heavy downpours, gusty winds, and
occasional cloud-to-ground lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ051-052-058-059-062>065-068>072-082-
507>510-SCZ001>014-019-081545-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Swain-Haywood-Graham-
Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-Henderson-
Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Rutherford Mountains-Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-
Oconee Mountains-Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-
Greater Oconee-Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-
Cherokee-York-Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1045 AM EST Tue Nov 7 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

A weak wave of low pressure will cross the region today, lifting a
frontal boundary northward briefly, before the front drops back
south as the wave exits to the east tonight. A few thunderstorms are
expected to develop along and south of the boundary this afternoon
through this evening. The main threats will be heavy downpours, gusty
winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning; however, an isolated severe
storm producing damaging wind gusts will be possible, especially
in areas south of I-40.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1227 PM EST TUE NOV 7 2017

SCZ006>009-012>014-071815-
York SC-Cherokee SC-Laurens SC-Union SC-Chester SC-Spartanburg SC-
Greater Greenville SC-
1227 PM EST TUE NOV 7 2017

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHERN LAURENS...EAST CENTRAL
GREENVILLE...NORTHWESTERN CHESTER...SOUTHWESTERN YORK...CENTRAL
SPARTANBURG...SOUTHERN CHEROKEE AND UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 115 PM
EST...

At 1226 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 8 miles west of Gaffney to 9 miles southeast of
Greenville Downtown, and moving east at 50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Union, Simpsonville, Clinton, Five Forks, Fountain Inn,
Woodruff, Pacolet, Cowpens and Monarch Mill.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3444 8185 3476 8233 3509 8180 3488 8116
TIME...MOT...LOC 1726Z 291DEG 42KT 3505 8180 3473 8233

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
220 PM EST TUE NOV 7 2017

GAZ017-018-026-SCZ001-004-072000-
Franklin GA-Stephens GA-Habersham GA-Greater Oconee SC-
Oconee Mountains SC-
220 PM EST TUE NOV 7 2017

...GUSTY STORMS WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN...STEPHENS...SOUTHERN HABERSHAM
AND SOUTHERN OCONEE COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EST...

At 219 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking storms along a line from
Toccoa to Cornelia moving east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Toccoa, Carnesville, Cornelia, Baldwin, Lavonia, Gumlog, Mount Airy,
Alto, Martin and Avalon.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3425 8334 3426 8334 3433 8339 3443 8338
      3446 8340 3448 8347 3449 8354 3443 8361
      3448 8365 3466 8332 3464 8283 3464 8285
      3461 8286 3448 8302 3449 8305 3443 8309
      3426 8329 3426 8330 3424 8333
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 280DEG 30KT 3459 8332

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
259 PM EST TUE NOV 7 2017

GAZ028-SCZ010-072045-
Hart GA-Anderson SC-
259 PM EST TUE NOV 7 2017

...LOCALLY GUSTY STORMS WILL IMPACT HART AND ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
345 PM EST...

At 257 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking storms along a line from
Townville to Royston, moving east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Hartwell, Homeland Park, Belton, Northlake, Reed Creek,
Iva, Bowersville, Starr and the Anderson Airport.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3425 8311 3439 8309 3449 8305 3447 8300
      3461 8285 3456 8244 3444 8244 3427 8268
      3426 8275 3427 8275 3429 8278 3427 8282
      3425 8291 3424 8293 3423 8308
TIME...MOT...LOC 1957Z 284DEG 29KT 3453 8292

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
301 PM EST TUE NOV 7 2017

GAZ026-072030-
Franklin GA-
301 PM EST TUE NOV 7 2017

...A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT FRANKLIN COUNTY THROUGH 330 PM
EST...

At 300 PM EST, Doppler radar was tracking a gusty thunderstorm 5
miles northwest of Carnesville, moving east at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Carnesville, Royston, Lavonia, Gumlog, Canon, Franklin Springs,
Victoria Bryant State Park and Martin.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph may occur in these areas.

LAT...LON 3432 8339 3443 8338 3446 8340 3446 8339
      3447 8338 3448 8318 3450 8315 3449 8306
      3441 8310 3436 8311 3434 8310 3428 8310
      3425 8315
TIME...MOT...LOC 2000Z 285DEG 34KT 3442 8331

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
337 PM EST TUE NOV 7 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0335 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NNE CANON             34.36N 83.11W
11/07/2017                   FRANKLIN           GA   911 CALL CENTER

            911 CALL CENTER REPORTED A TREE DOWN ON FOWLER ST. IN
            CANON

&&

LEC

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