Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
550 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary across the area today will dissipate over
the next few days. A strong upper ridge will then gradually build
into the region during the mid-to-late week, bringing hot
temperatures and reducing the coverage of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 545 pm...scattered slow moving thunderstorms had developed
mainly across the NC part of the fcst area...migrating slowly
toward the west. Long anvils blowing east downstream were helping
to keep the numbers of storms in check as thick cirrus cuts down
on insolation. Moderate instability remains in place with sbCAPE
in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, while dCAPE was greater than 800 J/kg
across the entire area. Thus, will not rule out a few more severe
storms this afternoon and evening, particularly given the number
of hail reports already received.

Otherwise...a well agreed upon h5 s/w will cross the FA this
evening and will interact with elev instability keeping -shra/tstms
active through the overnight to some degree. Expect lingering
debris clouds and moisture leading to stcu development to persist
arnd daybreak. The best chance for denser fg development will be
across the mtn valleys....yet all areas could see patchy ground fg
lifting by 14z or so. Afternoon and evening convection will once
again be probable Tue as the upper trof continues to influence
the pattern. Mid-level LRs will be conducive for stg/svr storms
as LFCs are easily reached once again and sbCAPE reaches moderate
levels. Max and min temps thru the period will remain near normal
levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday:  The short term fcst period kicks off
on Tuesday evening as a weak upper trof/disturbance slides east
across the Carolinas, while high pressure dominates at the surface.
Meanwhile to the west, a large H5 anticyclone will build, before
sliding east through the entire period.  With that, heights will
gradually rise through Wednesday and into Thursday atop northeast GA
and the western Carolinas leading to warming temperatures through
the profile.  Said warming will work to gradually tamp down
convective chances on Wednesday, and even further on Thursday.
With below climo pops fcst given decreased chances for diurnal
convection, the primary headline for the short term will be the
building heat.  Temperatures will warm each day with mid 90s
prevailing by Thursday across the piedmont, while upper 80s are
expected in the mtn valleys.  As such, given dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s, am expecting heat indices to approach/exceed
100 degrees by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday: Mid level ridging will be in place across
the area for Friday through the weekend into Monday leading to the
hottest period of the summer so far. Expect highs climbing into the
middle to upper 90s outside the mountains each day. Afternoon heat
indices will reach 100-105 in the Piedmont so will have to consider
heat advisories. Overnight lows will be warm also with mid to upper
70s common across the lower terrain.

Due to mid level warming, afternoon and evening thunderstorm
activity will be limited to the more favorable areas. The exception
will be Monday as the ridge begins to break down.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A good Cu field is encompassing the area this
afternoon with some deeper destabilization indicated across the higher
terrain. Expect most of the thunder to remain across the mtns until
later this afternoon when cells begin firing across existing outflow
bndrys. Hard to pinpoint favored locales and hi-res models are back
and forth with timings and locales. Anyway...have maintained a TEMPO
TSRA at KCLT this afternoon with the other sites getting a VCTS. An
ulvl s/w will cross from the northwest overnight and help maintain
-shra and possibly a few tstms. With debris cloudiness and llvl
moisture lingering thru daybreak...periods of STCU may develop and
expand. For now...will keep the IFR CIGS limited to the mtn sites.
Some lowering of VSBY is also expected arnd daybreak with IFR VSBY
possible at KAVL and likely MVFR VSBY all other sites before
lifting/dissipating aft 14z or so.

Outlook: Scattered to afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected into Wednesday across the area, with better coverage over
the mountains. Morning fog development can be expected in the
mountain valleys and in areas that receive rainfall the previous
afternoon/evening. Drier air will likely limit convective coverage
for Thursday, with typical mid-summer conditions returning by Friday.

Confidence Table...

            22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z        16-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   72%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Med   69%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  91%     High  94%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   77%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
613 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-181015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
613 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again
across the area this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be
from cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. However,
a few storms could become severe, with damaging winds being the
primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
658 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0657 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 W ICARD               35.72N 81.49W
07/17/2017                   BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

            SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON ROBINSON ST.

&&

CGANT

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