Severe Thunderstorm Warning 207, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

619 
WWUS52 KGSP 172231
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
631 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

NCC023-027-172245-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0207.000000T0000Z-170717T2245Z/
Caldwell NC-Burke NC-
631 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 645 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN CALDWELL AND EAST CENTRAL BURKE COUNTIES...

At 631 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 6 miles west of
Hickory, or near Icard, moving southwest at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and half dollar size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Sawmills, Granite Falls, Valdese, Icard, Drexel, Hildebran, Connelly
Springs, Rutherford College, Rhodhiss and Lake Rhodhiss.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3585 8148 3580 8133 3579 8135 3578 8136
      3577 8135 3576 8137 3568 8143 3571 8166
      3573 8165
TIME...MOT...LOC 2231Z 040DEG 13KT 3574 8145 

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

ARK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
550 PM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak frontal boundary across the area today will dissipate over
the next few days. A strong upper ridge will then gradually build
into the region during the mid-to-late week, bringing hot
temperatures and reducing the coverage of diurnal showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 545 pm...scattered slow moving thunderstorms had developed
mainly across the NC part of the fcst area...migrating slowly
toward the west. Long anvils blowing east downstream were helping
to keep the numbers of storms in check as thick cirrus cuts down
on insolation. Moderate instability remains in place with sbCAPE
in the 2000-2500 J/kg range, while dCAPE was greater than 800 J/kg
across the entire area. Thus, will not rule out a few more severe
storms this afternoon and evening, particularly given the number
of hail reports already received.

Otherwise...a well agreed upon h5 s/w will cross the FA this
evening and will interact with elev instability keeping -shra/tstms
active through the overnight to some degree. Expect lingering
debris clouds and moisture leading to stcu development to persist
arnd daybreak. The best chance for denser fg development will be
across the mtn valleys....yet all areas could see patchy ground fg
lifting by 14z or so. Afternoon and evening convection will once
again be probable Tue as the upper trof continues to influence
the pattern. Mid-level LRs will be conducive for stg/svr storms
as LFCs are easily reached once again and sbCAPE reaches moderate
levels. Max and min temps thru the period will remain near normal
levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday:  The short term fcst period kicks off
on Tuesday evening as a weak upper trof/disturbance slides east
across the Carolinas, while high pressure dominates at the surface.
Meanwhile to the west, a large H5 anticyclone will build, before
sliding east through the entire period.  With that, heights will
gradually rise through Wednesday and into Thursday atop northeast GA
and the western Carolinas leading to warming temperatures through
the profile.  Said warming will work to gradually tamp down
convective chances on Wednesday, and even further on Thursday.
With below climo pops fcst given decreased chances for diurnal
convection, the primary headline for the short term will be the
building heat.  Temperatures will warm each day with mid 90s
prevailing by Thursday across the piedmont, while upper 80s are
expected in the mtn valleys.  As such, given dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s, am expecting heat indices to approach/exceed
100 degrees by Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 PM EDT Monday: Mid level ridging will be in place across
the area for Friday through the weekend into Monday leading to the
hottest period of the summer so far. Expect highs climbing into the
middle to upper 90s outside the mountains each day. Afternoon heat
indices will reach 100-105 in the Piedmont so will have to consider
heat advisories. Overnight lows will be warm also with mid to upper
70s common across the lower terrain.

Due to mid level warming, afternoon and evening thunderstorm
activity will be limited to the more favorable areas. The exception
will be Monday as the ridge begins to break down.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: A good Cu field is encompassing the area this
afternoon with some deeper destabilization indicated across the higher
terrain. Expect most of the thunder to remain across the mtns until
later this afternoon when cells begin firing across existing outflow
bndrys. Hard to pinpoint favored locales and hi-res models are back
and forth with timings and locales. Anyway...have maintained a TEMPO
TSRA at KCLT this afternoon with the other sites getting a VCTS. An
ulvl s/w will cross from the northwest overnight and help maintain
-shra and possibly a few tstms. With debris cloudiness and llvl
moisture lingering thru daybreak...periods of STCU may develop and
expand. For now...will keep the IFR CIGS limited to the mtn sites.
Some lowering of VSBY is also expected arnd daybreak with IFR VSBY
possible at KAVL and likely MVFR VSBY all other sites before
lifting/dissipating aft 14z or so.

Outlook: Scattered to afternoon and evening thunderstorms are
expected into Wednesday across the area, with better coverage over
the mountains. Morning fog development can be expected in the
mountain valleys and in areas that receive rainfall the previous
afternoon/evening. Drier air will likely limit convective coverage
for Thursday, with typical mid-summer conditions returning by Friday.

Confidence Table...

            22-04Z        04-10Z        10-16Z        16-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     Med   72%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     Med   69%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High  91%     High  94%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     Med   77%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     Med   75%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...PM/SBK
SHORT TERM...CDG
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SBK

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
613 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-181015-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
613 AM EDT Mon Jul 17 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop again
across the area this afternoon and evening. The main threats will be
from cloud to ground lightning and locally heavy rainfall. However,
a few storms could become severe, with damaging winds being the
primary threat.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

None.

JPT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
519 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             1 E MORGANTON           35.74N 81.68W
07/17/2017  E0.75 INCH       BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CGANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
521 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             3 ENE MORGANTON         35.75N 81.64W
07/17/2017  E0.75 INCH       BURKE              NC   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CGANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
523 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0522 PM     HAIL             2 NW TAYLORSVILLE       35.94N 81.20W
07/17/2017  E0.88 INCH       ALEXANDER          NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

&&

CGANT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
531 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0456 PM     HAIL             4 NNE NEBO              35.76N 81.90W
07/17/2017  E0.50 INCH       BURKE              NC   PUBLIC

            LOTS OF PEA SIZED HAIL WITH A FEW PERHAPS AS LARGE AS A
            MARBLE. HAD A STRONG WIND GUST BUT NO TREES OR LIMBS DOWN
            AS THEY COULD SEE AT MOUNTAIN HARBOUR MARINA.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
540 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

NCZ501-502-172215-
Caldwell Mountains NC-Greater Caldwell NC-
540 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT CENTRAL CALDWELL COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM EDT...

At 540 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lenoir, moving northwest at 10 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Lenoir, Gamewell, Cajah's Mountain, Cedar Rock, Hudson, Collettsville
and Patterson.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

The combination of gusty winds and saturated soil conditions will
cause scattered trees and power lines to fall. Seek shelter inside an
interior room.

&&

LAT...LON 3594 8140 3582 8154 3591 8170 3608 8152
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 131DEG 8KT 3593 8155

ARK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
551 PM EDT MON JUL 17 2017

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0549 PM     HAIL             1 NNW LENOIR            35.92N 81.54W
07/17/2017  E0.88 INCH       CALDWELL           NC   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CGANT