Severe Thunderstorm Warning 83, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

541 
WWUS52 KGSP 241909
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
309 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

NCC149-241918-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-170524T1930Z/
Polk NC-
309 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTH CENTRAL POLK COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for western North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3568 8203 3559 8183 3558 8182 3558 8181
      3555 8175 3541 8203 3549 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 225DEG 26KT 3551 8202 

$$

NCC111-161-241930-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0083.000000T0000Z-170524T1930Z/
McDowell NC-Rutherford NC-
309 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 330 PM EDT
FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND NORTHERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES...

At 308 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 10 miles north of
Rutherfordton, moving northeast at 30 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Minor hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind 
         damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Shingle Hollow, Sugar Hill, Thermal City, Glenwood, Fero,
Dysartsville, Union Mills, Green Hill and Marion.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for western North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3568 8203 3559 8183 3558 8182 3558 8181
      3555 8175 3541 8203 3549 8216
TIME...MOT...LOC 1908Z 225DEG 26KT 3551 8202 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KRENTZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
221 PM EDT Wed May 24 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An area of low pressure to our west will pull a warm front northward
through the area today. Unstable conditions south of the front
will lead to showers and thunderstorms producing heavy rain. A few
more showers may occur Thursday before drier and warmer conditions
return to end the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 140 PM EDT Wednesday: Atmosphere freely convecting across most
of the western Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Storms not quite
severe yet, but the SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows sfc based CAPE in
the 1000-2000 J/kg range and sufficient effective bulk shear and
storm relative helicity to support supercellular structures. Expect
storms to get better and better organized over the next hour or two.
The 1630 UTC update to the Day1 Outlook brought the Enhanced Risk
across most of the area east of the Blue Ridge and that seems wise.
The best tornado risk appears to be the I-85 corridor. Entire TOR
Watch looks good.

Otherwise, the Flash Flood threat remains, altho is less than the
Tornado threat, mainly because of the wet soil conditions. We are
looking at a slightly more clear-cut situation due to the
large-scale ascent/synoptic forcing ahead of the digging upper low
over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. Strong SW flow aloft ahead of this
system with really lovely upper diffluence will allow the surface
low to lift from the Tennessee Valley northeast up the western side
of the Appalachians today, with strong cold front stretching down
the mountains into the Southeast. All near-term guidance is also
inducing mesolow formation along the lee of the Appalachians across
western NC, which will serve to help back the surface flow today
(more on that later). 120-130kt upper jet and strong DPVA will push
across the area today, so in addition to the upper diffluence,
jet-level divergence will also be a factor, as well as southerly
850mb LLJ (40kt). And of course plenty of moisture to work with as
well.

If it wasn't for the thunderstorms, today would be an incredibly
pleasant day with temperatures in the lower 70s (5-10 degrees below
seasonal normals) across the Piedmont and 60s in the mountains. More
of a cool-down expected tonight behind the front, with lows dropping
below seasonal normals with loss of deep layer moisture, as we'll be
in the dry slot between the front and the approaching upper low
(which we'll have to deal with for the short term).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Wed: The upper low will wobble northeastward into the
Mid-Atlantic states on Thursday. Lapse rates will remain strong
over our area as a result, and a lobe of vorticity will also spin
through. Thus scattered showers and potentially some thunderstorms
will occur over mainly western NC, with chances limited further
south by warmer midlevel temps. Instability is greatest in the
late morning to midday and that is when peak thunder chances will
be advertised; convection should wane in the aftn with rising
heights aloft. With broken cloud cover over much of the area, and
breezy winds, max temps will be similar to today's, 7 to 10 degrees
below climo. With deep mixing, a few brisk gusts could occur simply
within the gradient, if not due to outflow from the showers/storms.

Heights continue to rise Thu night into Friday. Subsidence will
inhibit convection and skies should remain mostly clear. Temps are
expected to bounce back to near normal. A warm front will develop
over the mid-Mississippi Valley as the next low gets cranking in
the Plains. Guidance generally indicates clouds will begin to return
by early Saturday, with a small chance of showers developing along
the TN-NC border, as a result of a weak wave moving into the Tenn
Valley at that time.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Wed: The Bermuda high will remain somewhat suppressed
over the South Atlantic region this weekend, with another broad upper
trough moving east out of the northern Plains. In response the
developing Plains low will activate a baroclinic zone over the
mid-Mississippi Valley on Saturday. The cold front associated with
the trough most likely will approach the area late Sunday or Monday.
Some differences in timing and speed of this fropa do exist between
the 00z GFS and EC. They do generally agree that the front will hang
up over the Coastal Plain Tuesday, so a small PoP is retained then
for the possibility it is slower to do so, or a wave develops along
it in our vicinity. Max temps thru the period will hover near normal,
with mins initially held warmer by clouds/precip, but those return to
near normal by Tuesday night.

Impact-wise, some diurnal thunderstorms are possible each day until
the front passes. Deep shear parameters are on the high side given
the gradient around the trough, but a capping inversion is progged by
the GFS over much of the Piedmont until the front arrives. Thus the
large CAPE values it is generating may not be realized.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Ceiling continues to lift from MVFR to VFR as
boundary layer warms early this afternoon. Meanwhile, convection was
firing across most of the region though not at any TAF sites. Think
most locations will end up VFR prevailing with MVFR in convective
elements, and that is how we will play it. Winds could be strong and
gusty inside storms as well. The timing of the best chance is
generally through 00Z, but a second round could happen this evening
from the west closer to the front. Several of the storms could be
severe, and a Tornado Watch remains in effect for the entire fcst
area through 22Z. In the wake of the convection, ceiling should come
up to VFR for several hours, before dropping back down in the early
morning hours. Winds should be southerly through the evening hours,
and then with a switch to SW or WSW in the early morning hours (NW
in the Mtns).

Outlook: Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue on
Thursday afternoon as the upper trough passes. Drying is expected to
finally occur Thursday night through Saturday.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       Med   66%     High  83%     Med   77%     High  89%
KGSP       High  80%     High  98%     High 100%     High  88%
KAVL       High  88%     High  95%     Med   76%     High  93%
KHKY       Med   79%     High  83%     Med   74%     High  87%
KGMU       Med   71%     High  98%     High  96%     High  95%
KAND       High  84%     High  99%     High 100%     High  99%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for GAZ010-017-
     018-026-028-029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ033-
     035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068>072-082-501>510.
SC...Flash Flood Watch until 10 PM EDT this evening for SCZ001>014-
     019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Wimberley
NEAR TERM...PM/TDP
SHORT TERM...Wimberley
LONG TERM...Wimberley
AVIATION...PM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1047 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-251500-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1047 AM EDT Wed May 24 2017

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...
...TORNADO WATCH 262 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Tornado Watch.
   Flash Flood Watch.

Numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop today. Conditions are
favorable for some of these storms to produce severe weather, in the
form of damaging winds, large hail, frequent lightning, and very
heavy rain. A few of the severe storms will be organized enough to
produce a tornado. The most likely time for any severe weather will
be through mid afternoon over the mountains, during the early to mid
afternoon over northeast Georgia, the western upstate of south
carolina, and the foothills of North Carolina, and then the mid to
late afternoon over the western Piedmont of North Carolina and the
Charlotte metro area. The threat for severe weather will end from the
west in the late afternoon and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

PM

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1257 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

SCZ011-241745-
Abbeville SC-
1257 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ABBEVILLE COUNTY UNTIL 145 PM
EDT...

At 1257 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles southwest of Abbeville, or near Calhoun Falls, moving northeast
at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Abbeville, Calhoun Falls, Due West and Lake Russell.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3407 8264 3409 8264 3413 8267 3436 8242
      3418 8224 3414 8225 3411 8226 3408 8231
      3406 8234 3406 8244 3408 8248 3407 8250
      3407 8253 3402 8259
TIME...MOT...LOC 1657Z 233DEG 26KT 3406 8259

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
101 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

NCZ051-059-062-241745-
Swain NC-Northern Jackson NC-Macon NC-
101 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL MACON...NORTHERN
JACKSON AND SOUTHEASTERN SWAIN COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM EDT...

At 101 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 5
miles south of Bryson City, moving east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Sylva, Bryson City, Cherokee, Cullowhee, Balsam, Webster, Dillsboro,
B.R. Parkway-Smoky Mountains To Balsam Gap, B.R. Parkway-Balsam Gap
To Black Balsam Area and Smoky Mountains-Balsam Mountain.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for western North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3557 8316 3555 8316 3551 8318 3551 8316
      3549 8315 3549 8314 3546 8313 3546 8310
      3544 8308 3541 8304 3540 8304 3538 8302
      3537 8299 3535 8298 3522 8348 3539 8357
TIME...MOT...LOC 1701Z 247DEG 31KT 3534 8344

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
135 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

SCZ011-012-019-241815-
Laurens SC-Abbeville SC-Greenwood SC-
135 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT WESTERN
LAURENS...NORTHEASTERN ABBEVILLE AND NORTHWESTERN GREENWOOD COUNTIES
UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

At 135 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm with
intense lightning 11 miles north of Abbeville, or near Shoals
Junction, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Laurens, Clinton, Ware Shoals, Gray Court, Donalds, Cokesbury,
Hodges, Shoals Junction, Due West and Waterloo.

In addition to intense lightning, wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea
size hail will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

Frequent lightning is occurring with this storm. If outdoors, try to
get indoors or into a hard topped vehicle. Otherwise, stay away from
open areas and isolated high objects such as trees. When indoors,
stay away from windows and doors and avoid using wired electronic
devices. Do not take a shower or bath. Try to unplug unnecessary
appliances before the storm approaches.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for Upstate South
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3437 8242 3448 8232 3454 8224 3458 8224
      3474 8209 3472 8208 3472 8207 3470 8207
      3470 8206 3466 8200 3466 8198 3451 8180
      3424 8227
TIME...MOT...LOC 1735Z 224DEG 21KT 3434 8231

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
158 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

GAZ029-SCZ010-011-241845-
Elbert GA-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-
158 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN ELBERT...
SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON AND NORTHWESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 245
PM EDT...

At 158 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 11
miles northeast of Elberton, or near Russell State Park, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Homeland Park, Belton, Honea Path, Iva, Lake Secession,
Starr, Lowndesville, Russell State Park and Lake Russell.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and pea size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for northeastern
Georgia...and Upstate South Carolina.

LAT...LON 3411 8267 3421 8286 3428 8282 3429 8277
      3432 8279 3459 8262 3445 8235
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 212DEG 31KT 3423 8272

CDG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
238 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

SCZ007-008-013-241915-
Cherokee SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
238 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG...
SOUTHERN CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

At 237 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Union, or 8 miles west of Buffalo, moving northeast at
35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gaffney, Union, Pacolet, Buffalo, Jonesville, Pacolet Mills, Croft
State Park, Cross Keys, Saratt and Cross Anchor.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for Upstate South
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3471 8197 3507 8168 3492 8147 3490 8148
      3489 8147 3486 8147 3460 8181
TIME...MOT...LOC 1837Z 220DEG 30KT 3472 8184

KRENTZ

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
239 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

NCZ503>510-241915-
Greater Rutherford NC-McDowell Mountains NC-Burke Mountains NC-
Greater Burke NC-Polk Mountains NC-Eastern McDowell NC-
Rutherford Mountains NC-Eastern Polk NC-
239 PM EDT WED MAY 24 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL...NORTHERN
RUTHERFORD...NORTHEASTERN POLK AND SOUTHWESTERN BURKE COUNTIES UNTIL
315 PM EDT...

At 239 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles north of Columbus, or 6 miles southeast of Chimney Rock State
Park, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Marion, Lake James State Park, Lake James, Chimney Rock State Park,
South Mountains State Park, Nebo, Green Hill, Mill Spring, Thermal
City and Pleasant Gardens.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph and dime size hail will be possible in these
areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio and tv
stations, as well as local cable tv outlets for additional
information and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A tornado watch remains in effect until 600 PM EDT for western North
Carolina.

LAT...LON 3563 8163 3527 8212 3537 8228 3539 8226
      3541 8227 3553 8219 3553 8217 3554 8219
      3583 8199
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 219DEG 29KT 3539 8215

KRENTZ