Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

011 
WWUS52 KGSP 050646
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
246 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

NCC111-161-050656-
/O.CAN.KGSP.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-170505T0715Z/
McDowell NC-Rutherford NC-
246 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MCDOWELL AND
NORTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out 
of the warned area. Therefore the warning has been cancelled.

LAT...LON 3588 8171 3585 8164 3582 8162 3582 8160
      3578 8156 3578 8152 3576 8148 3561 8170
      3560 8174 3561 8176 3560 8177 3559 8183
      3572 8187 3591 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 0646Z 211DEG 46KT 3568 8177 

$$

NCC023-050715-
/O.CON.KGSP.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-170505T0715Z/
Burke NC-
246 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 AM EDT
FOR CENTRAL BURKE COUNTY...

At 246 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 5 miles southwest of
Morganton, or near Glen Alpine, moving northeast at 55 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts. 

SOURCE...Radar indicated. 

IMPACT...Expect damage to trees and power lines. 

Locations impacted include...
Morganton, Valdese, Drexel, Connelly Springs, Rutherford College,
Glen Alpine, Lake Rhodhiss, Oak Hill, Table Rock and South Mountains
State Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Scattered trees and power lines will be blown down in the warned
area. Seek shelter inside an interior room.

Please report damaging winds, hail, or flooding to the National
Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg by calling toll free, 1, 800,
2 6 7, 8 1 0 1, or by posting on our Facebook page, or Tweet it using
hashtag nwsgsp. Your message should describe the event and the
specific location where it occurred.

&&

LAT...LON 3588 8171 3585 8164 3582 8162 3582 8160
      3578 8156 3578 8152 3576 8148 3561 8170
      3560 8174 3561 8176 3560 8177 3559 8183
      3572 8187 3591 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 0646Z 211DEG 46KT 3568 8177 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LANE

335 
WWUS52 KGSP 050707
SVSGSP

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
307 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

NCC023-050717-
/O.EXP.KGSP.SV.W.0073.000000T0000Z-170505T0715Z/
Burke NC-
307 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL BURKE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 315 AM EDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and has exited the warned area. Therefore the warning will be
allowed to expire.

LAT...LON 3588 8171 3585 8164 3582 8162 3582 8160
      3578 8156 3578 8152 3576 8148 3561 8170
      3560 8174 3561 8176 3560 8177 3559 8183
      3572 8187 3591 8174
TIME...MOT...LOC 0707Z 215DEG 41KT 3586 8162 

$$

LANE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
145 AM EDT Fri May 5 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A deep low pressure system will move across Tennessee from west to
east tonight and Friday with abundant moisture over our area tonight
ahead of the system. This low pressure system moves north of our
region this weekend with high pressure becoming our dominant weather
feature through mid week. The next low pressure system reaches our
region late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 140 AM EDT Friday:  Updated discussion for taf issuance.
Continuing to monitor multiple bands of convection, the eastern
most being the most unstable, while the western band currently
moving through Greenville County is associated with the front and
interacting with an airmass that is fairly worked over.  As for
the former, convection is a bit deeper as shear is maximized atop
these zones leading to brief periods of rotation in a few cells.
Continuing to monitor this line as it exits the region to the east.
Tweaked pops/t/td and winds to align with recent radar trends as
well as latest camguide timing with the focus primarily being on the
western frontal band which should weaken further as it moves east.

Otherwise, the upper low will slowly drift over the fcst area
during the next 24 to 36hrs but is not expected to lift north
of the region until early next week. At the sfc, the warm front
will lift north of the CWFA early Fri morning as the cold front
approaches and moves across the fcst area later in the day. By the
end of the near-term period early Sat, the center of the low will
have lifted well to our north, yet moist return flow on its back
side will keep POPs up over our area. Temps will remain well below
normal on Friday with cooler air spreading over the region behind
the front and abundant cloud cover persisting across the CWFA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Thursday: The short term begins at 00z Saturday
with the deep upper closed low in place over the Southern
Appalachians. Moisture associated with the upper low will remain
generally over the mountains overnight, with temperatures
plummeting into the 30s and lower 40s across the mountains (mid to
upper 40s Piedmont), possibly reaching that critical freezing level
at the very highest elevations. Some light snow certainly not out of
the question - again we're mainly talking Mt. Mitchell and other
high peaks, but some flurries certainly possible across the Smokies
and Balsams. For now, not too concerned about frost potential in the
valleys with winds remaining a too high with strong surface gradient
in place, but will have to monitor.

Moisture should spread across the foothills into the Piedmont during
the day on Saturday. Lapse rates will steepen as the upper low and
associated mid-level CAA moves across, and even though surface
temperatures in the wake of the cold front will struggle to get to
70, there should be enough instability to result in at least
isolated thunderstorms, with best chances across the NC mountains
and foothills (can't rule it out over the Piedmont though). With
such steep lapse rates in place and much cooler temperatures aloft,
some small hail will certainly be possible. The surface gradient
will tighten somewhat during the day and with mixing stronger winds
down, should be a breezy day, though still below thresholds for wind
advisory.

The upper low rotates northeast as a shortwave dives down the
western periphery of the trough, pushing into the mountains Saturday
night. Another round of very light snow showers certainly possible
at those highest elevations, but storm total (Fri and Sat nights)
we're looking at a whopping half inch or so at Mt. Mitchell...but
still a bit of a novelty nonetheless. The gradient remains strong so
again frost concerns are minimal, but generally expecting another
cool night (5-8 degrees below seasonal normal) across the area. Some
indications that moisture associated with this secondary shortwave
may break containment, especially with the GFS and NAM (not so much
the ECMWF), and so have increased pops across southern zones early
Sunday to account for this.

Pops drop off drastically after sunrise Sunday, and despite full
sunshine, continued strong CAA especially in the wake of the
secondary shortwave will keep temperatures a good 8-10 degrees below
seasonal normals on Sunday. Should still be a bit of a breeze,
though not as strong as on Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday: High-amplitude omega blocking pattern in
place with deep troughing over the Eastern Seaboard, ridging over
the Plains, and another deep cutoff upper low over southern
California to start the extended. The wavetrain will slowly slide
east, but with northwest flow aloft and cool high pressure building
in, we should see a couple of days of below-normal temperatures for
the beginning of the work week, though with a slow warming trend.

Guidance wants to bring a channeled vort max down the northwest flow
aloft with some attendant moisture Tuesday night into Wednesday, and
both deterministic GFS and ECWMF are inducing surface low formation
off the coast around mid-week. This wouldn't affect us, but
interesting to see nonetheless. The eastern upper low continues to
rotate over New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic states while
the southwest low lifts into the southern Rockies and into the
Plains late in the work week. Definitely some uncertainty with the
progression of this system but looks like some sort of elongated
front stretching between the two surface systems will be hovering
over the area, with slight to low-chance pops returning early
Wednesday and lingering through the end of the period, with some
oscillation due to uncertainty in the front. Should see temperatures
return to near- to slightly above-average by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere:  A mixture of MVFR/IFR and possibly LIFR
through the morning hours at all sites.  Convection continues
to slide across the region ahead of a closed upper cyclone and
associated surface low/front.  With that, sct/num shra with a few
embedded tsra are rolling across the region, however with tsra
becoming less likely with time.  Thus, did initialize all tafs
with some mention of weather, with each site specifically timed
based upon current radar trends and hrrr guide.  Aside from the
precipitation, IFR/LIFR cigs are expected at all sites through
daybreak with vrb visb amongst enhanced swly surface flow.
Conditions will improve after sunrise, however likely only to
MVFR levels as nearly all precipitation lifts to the northeast.
Chances for precipitation will return into the afternoon hours,
with chances maximized along the NC high terrain, thus only
carried prevailing shra at KAVL, with all other sites aside for
KCLT featuring either prob30s or vcsh.  KCLT should remain dry.
MVFR will lift to low VFR during this time frame as well, except
at KAVL.

Outlook: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will linger
across the area into Saturday as a large area of low pressure
slowly lifts north of the region. Drying expected for Sunday and
early next week.

Confidence Table...

            05-11Z        11-17Z        17-23Z        23-00Z
KCLT       High  94%     Med   70%     High  85%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     Med   75%     High  85%     High  81%
KAVL       High  94%     Low   51%     High  85%     Med   66%
KHKY       High  81%     Low   36%     High  90%     Med   65%
KGMU       High  94%     Med   75%     High  90%     High  87%
KAND       High 100%     Med   75%     High  85%     High  94%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...CDG/JPT
SHORT TERM...TDP
LONG TERM...TDP
AVIATION...CDG

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1037 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-082-501>510-SCZ001>014-019-060245-
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Franklin-Hart-Elbert-Avery-Alexander-
Iredell-Davie-Madison-Yancey-Mitchell-Swain-Haywood-Buncombe-Catawba-
Rowan-Graham-Northern Jackson-Macon-Southern Jackson-Transylvania-
Henderson-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-Mecklenburg-Cabarrus-Union-
Caldwell Mountains-Greater Caldwell-Burke Mountains-Greater Burke-
McDowell Mountains-Eastern McDowell-Rutherford Mountains-
Greater Rutherford-Polk Mountains-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-York-
Anderson-Abbeville-Laurens-Chester-Greenwood-
1037 PM EDT Thu May 4 2017

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to continue late tonight and
through the overnight. The threat for damaging winds or a brief
tornado is low, but cannot be ruled out, especially east of I-26.
Locally heavy rainfall is also expected with flash flooding possible
where storms train behind each other.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

..Friday...Lingering showers and thunderstorms are likely through the
early morning hours.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Sunday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Wednesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Skywarn spotters are requested to forward any reports of large hail,
damaging winds, tornadoes, or flash flooding to our office.

JPT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1222 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

NCZ070-071-SCZ009-014-050500-
Gaston NC-Mecklenburg NC-York SC-Chester SC-
1222 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT WESTERN MECKLENBURG...EASTERN
GASTON...NORTH CENTRAL CHESTER AND CENTRAL YORK COUNTIES THROUGH
100 AM EDT...

At 1221 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain showers along a
line extending from 4 miles south of Gastonia to 9 miles northeast of
Chester, and moving northeast at 30 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Gastonia, Rock Hill, York, Huntersville, Southwest Charlotte, Mt
Holly, Fort Mill, Belmont, Pineville and South Gastonia.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and torrential rainfall rates up to 3 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3470 8126 3526 8127 3540 8100 3540 8096
      3543 8096 3545 8092 3505 8088 3508 8091
      3501 8091 3496 8087 3492 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 0421Z 207DEG 28KT 3519 8114 3480 8110

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1248 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

GAZ029-SCZ010-011-050530-
Elbert GA-Anderson SC-Abbeville SC-
1248 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT NORTH CENTRAL ELBERT...
SOUTHEASTERN ANDERSON AND NORTHWESTERN ABBEVILLE COUNTIES UNTIL 130
AM EDT...

At 1248 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6
miles northeast of Elberton, or near Russell State Park, moving
northeast at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Anderson, Honea Path, Iva, Lake Secession, Starr, Lowndesville,
Russell State Park, Lake Russell, Homeland Park and Antreville.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3423 8285 3428 8281 3429 8277 3431 8279
      3455 8260 3444 8233 3413 8267
TIME...MOT...LOC 0448Z 215DEG 33KT 3417 8278

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
105 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

NCZ036-057-071-072-050545-
Rowan NC-Iredell NC-Mecklenburg NC-Cabarrus NC-
105 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN CABARRUS...
SOUTHEASTERN IREDELL...CENTRAL MECKLENBURG AND WESTERN ROWAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 145 AM EDT...

At 104 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain showers along a
line extending from 3 miles north of Huntersville to 3 miles north of
Uptown Charlotte to 11 miles northeast of Rock Hill, and moving
northeast at 50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Charlotte, Huntersville, Kannapolis, and Concord.

Wind gusts up to 40 mph and very heavy rainfall rates up to 2 inches
per hour will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall may flood areas with poor drainage, such as
ditches and underpasses. Avoid these areas and do not cross flooded
roads. Water levels of small streams may also rise rapidly. Seek
higher ground if threatened by flood waters. Do not drive across
flooded roads.

&&

LAT...LON 3547 8053 3501 8084 3510 8093 3545 8091
      3585 8065 3578 8051
TIME...MOT...LOC 0504Z 206DEG 44KT 3546 8086 3528 8084 3503 8087

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
134 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

SCZ006-007-012-050600-
Laurens SC-Spartanburg SC-Greater Greenville SC-
134 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...EAST CENTRAL
GREENVILLE AND WESTERN SPARTANBURG COUNTIES UNTIL 200 AM EDT...

At 134 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain showers along a
line extending from 3 miles east of Greenville Downtown to 14 miles
northwest of Laurens, and moving northeast at 40 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Spartanburg, Greenville Eastside, Greer,
Mauldin, Taylors, Simpsonville, Five Forks, Fountain Inn and
Woodruff.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3517 8209 3476 8188 3462 8226 3486 8244
TIME...MOT...LOC 0534Z 225DEG 34KT 3487 8233 3465 8221

LANE

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
222 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

SCZ007-008-013-050645-
Cherokee SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
222 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG...WESTERN
CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 245 AM EDT...

At 222 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain showers along a
line extending from 11 miles southwest of Spartanburg to 4 miles
north of Laurens, and moving northeast at 50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Spartanburg, Gaffney, Pacolet, Cowpens, Jonesville, Pacolet Mills,
Croft State Park, Cedar Springs, Roebuck and Thicketty.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3512 8165 3482 8168 3467 8194 3496 8196
TIME...MOT...LOC 0622Z 217DEG 41KT 3481 8204 3457 8204

LANE

Special Weather Statement...Corrected Location
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
225 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

SCZ007-008-013-050645-
Cherokee SC-Union SC-Spartanburg SC-
225 AM EDT FRI MAY 5 2017

...HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL IMPACT SOUTHEASTERN SPARTANBURG...WESTERN
CHEROKEE AND NORTHWESTERN UNION COUNTIES UNTIL 300 AM EDT...

At 224 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated heavy rain showers along a
line extending from 4 miles southwest of Spartanburg to 11 miles
north of Laurens, and moving northeast at 50 mph.

Locations to be impacted include... Spartanburg, Gaffney, Pacolet,
Cowpens, Jonesville, Pacolet Mills, Croft State Park, Cedar Springs,
Roebuck and Thicketty.

Wind gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

LAT...LON 3512 8165 3482 8168 3467 8194 3496 8196 TIME...MOT...LOC
0624Z 217DEG 46KT 3490 8197 3466 8198

LANE